TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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Well,,, goodnite blog..... and don't agitate too much the Escape key of your keyboard....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Not much XD
Over there?


aint killed nobody yet...must be doing good!!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


funny thing is, that center you are describing, is the actual center of the storm lol


funny thing is it is now about 2.5 hours prior to my post it was 60 miles south of the area just "about" to cross cuba according to the 11pm adv. so I gues its moving now at about 25 mph.......in order to get there? That was my question?
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2031. mbjjm
It is one of the biggest myths in avaition that airplanes from certain countries cannot fly over Cuba.

Hundreds of flights from the US fly over Cuba daily to get to places like Jamaica,Caymans, Central and South America

All civilian aircraft, with correctly filed flight plans, who have paid the required fees are allowed to overfly cuba. US military airplanes cannot overfly. Some airlines were never 'required' to stop overflying. Some may have opted to during times of peak tension. (just for a week or two).
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2030. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


What up dude!!


Not much XD
Over there?
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Quoting JLPR2:


That's it, I got no text. XD


What up dude!!
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Wow, I guess I should post more rather than reading old posts, I don't have enough time!

How is the night shift?

Been nice and cool here in Baton Rouge for a change!
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Quoting barotropic:


I asked nicely 3 times for 15 minutes about the circ on the north coast of cuba.....very visable on SW loop.....I just found it odd that no one even acknowledged a friendly reasonable post over and over. Just FYI all day long the pressures have been equal or very close to equal the systems center pressure for nearly 200 miles away from it. There is no rapid drop once within 200 miles of center its all nearly eaual....very broad and now quite obvious that there are clearly many vortices. I guess I said Fr***** and after 15 minute got a response. Thanks.


funny thing is, that center you are describing, is the actual center of the storm lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7914
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


what?? relax


I asked nicely 3 times for 15 minutes about the circ on the north coast of cuba.....very visable on SW loop.....I just found it odd that no one even acknowledged a friendly reasonable post over and over. Just FYI all day long the pressures have been equal or very close to equal the systems center pressure for nearly 200 miles away from it. There is no rapid drop once within 200 miles of center its all nearly eaual....very broad and now quite obvious that there are clearly many vortices. I guess I said Fr***** and after 15 minute got a response. Thanks.
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wow it will take them 2 more hours to get around to the south side of the island, they might as well go into the bands near the keys and wait for the damn center to move over water

I am not waiting for this, I am off to bed
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7914
2024. xcool
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Anyway....

Everyone have a good night - Stay dry!
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2021. mbjjm
news from Jamaica

Link
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Quoting barotropic:


Whatabout the circ center I fr***** posted about??


what?? relax
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Quoting swflurker:
So I guess Yellowstone isn'n in Montana any more!


I did say "technically". Geographically located in a state doesn't make it part of the state. Federal land is just that. National Parks, military bases, that kinda thing.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


then whats the circulation due north of the caymans on bords posts?


Whatabout the circ center I fr***** posted about??
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To: bcycsailor

FYI, The "T'was Brillig..." poem, entitled "Jabberwocky," was written by Lewis Carroll (pen name of Oxford professor Charles Lutwidge Dodgson, who also wrote "Alice in Wonderland" and "Through the Lookinglass").
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Quoting Rainman32:
Not at all! JAX welcomes you :) hey, it's nice to finally have a little rain here.


Good to know :). I guess it'll probably be wait and see tomorrow morning to see what the storm does. Still, it'll probably be okay. I grew up in S. Florida so this isn't my first rodeo.
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2015. JLPR2


That's it, I got no text. XD
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, they are and the entire island of Jamaica is under a Flash Flood Warning till 5PM EDT tomorrow.


Uh oh. It seems like this massive pool of heat and water vapour will be creating flooding problems all the way up the Eastern Seaboard, imo.
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Quoting TylersMom:
So... I'm in Northern Coastal Georgia and was planning to head to Jacksonville tomorrow. I should probably reconsider at this point?
Not at all! JAX welcomes you :) hey, it's nice to finally have a little rain here.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks to me they are right


then whats the circulation due north of the caymans on bords posts?
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29.39 in(Falling) Big Pine Key. 33042
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29.50 in (Rising) Marathon.
wind data are no longer available.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at SANF1 as of
(1:00 am EDT)


Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 22 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 24 kts
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 %uFFFDF
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
1:00 am E ( 100 deg ) 22 kts
12:50 am E ( 100 deg ) 25 kts
12:40 am E ( 101 deg ) 27 kts
12:30 am ESE ( 105 deg ) 27 kts
12:20 am ESE ( 106 deg ) 31 kts
12:10 am E ( 85 deg ) 28 kts

On the reef south of KW.
Wish their barameter still worked.


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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290553
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING CUBA EAST OF HAVANA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 81.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44

radar shows something completely different...


looks to me they are right
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7914
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290553
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING CUBA EAST OF HAVANA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 81.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44

radar shows something completely different...


Shortwave shows a circ center over water on the north coast of cuba.....
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2007. wxhatt
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Whys HH not crossing cuba?


Restricted Air Space
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the center is over Cuba

the are checking out the north side, now they will check out the south side
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7914
So... I'm in Northern Coastal Georgia and was planning to head to Jacksonville tomorrow. I should probably reconsider at this point?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290553
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING CUBA EAST OF HAVANA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 81.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44

radar shows something completely different...
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If all that convection from the two easterly waves, unites with this monsoonal system and with Nichole, no doubt, its going to be a very interesting week of Met observations....
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Interesting sky over Ft Myers tonight. Clouds moving to the southwest at a rapid clip. Appear to be low level, but are larger than the scud clouds I've seen when tropical storms are nearby.

Palms are doing they're funky little prestorm dance. They flutter and then are quite.

Temperature is dropping, and there's an eerie orangish glow to the southeast.

TD 16 and the trough might be saying "hello" over my house.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Link...speaking of fires.


wow...that's a Far!!
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Whys HH not crossing cuba?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
still not the center, that 998mb was probably in a band of some sort

pressure will likely go back down again after going up a bit


The pressure is at near 998 mb 200 miles plus SW of the current center location and at 999 150 mile SE of it. Its likely stil right at 998 at the center poss 997mb
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29.40 in(Falling), 995.6mb Zip 33042
Big Pine Key, MM 30.
29.42 MM 24.
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NHC taking their time
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Haven't been there in awhile. Is it still in Montana, or did they move it?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
While techically in the states of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, no state fishing licenses are required in the park and state sales tax is not collected. It is Federal property.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
While techically in the states of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, no state fishing licenses are required in the park and state sales tax is not collected. It is Federal property.
"technically"...maybe?....time to go to bed!
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still not the center, that 998mb was probably in a band of some sort

pressure will likely go back down again after going up a bit
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7914
Quoting swflurker:
So I guess Yellowstone isn'n in Montana any more!
While techically in the states of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, no state fishing licenses are required in the park and state sales tax is not collected. It is Federal property.
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Got it.... thanks,,,,,

Quoting Bordonaro:

Link to the radar site:
Link
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Quoting bcycsailor:


Thanks for the catch-up. I hope that everyone fares well there. The situation in Mexico is just plain sad and isn't Jamaica also prone to mudslides?

Yes, they are and the entire island of Jamaica is under a Flash Flood Warning till 5PM EDT tomorrow.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Time: 05:32:00Z
Coordinates: 23.45N 82.1833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 811.5 mb (~ 23.96 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,806 meters (~ 5,925 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.5 mb (~ 29.52 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 57° at 18 knots (From the ENE at ~ 20.7 mph)
Air Temp: 16.5°C (~ 61.7°F)
Dew Pt: 7.5°C (~ 45.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

bout to fly over cuba, already 999.5 falling rapidly


The fact that its already 999mb doesnt mean anything in this case
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Quoting sunlinepr:
I can't find the radar either,,,, Windows is prompting me....


Cabernet, Merlot or Tempranillo??

Link to the radar site:
Link
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Quoting sunlinepr:
I can't find the radar either,,,, Windows is prompting me....


Cabernet, Merlot or Tempranillo??
Nice!
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did anyone check out that spin on the N Coast??
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Time: 05:32:00Z
Coordinates: 23.45N 82.1833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 811.5 mb (~ 23.96 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,806 meters (~ 5,925 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.5 mb (~ 29.52 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 57° at 18 knots (From the ENE at ~ 20.7 mph)
Air Temp: 16.5°C (~ 61.7°F)
Dew Pt: 7.5°C (~ 45.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

bout to fly over cuba, already 999.5 falling rapidly


seems to me that the structure of this system has gotten better tonight
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7914

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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