Caribbean disurbance 96L nearly a depression; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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Pressures continue to fall over the Western Caribbean this morning as a strong tropical disturbance (96L) organizes. Surface observations suggest that 96L has a large circulation covering most of the Western Caribbean, as evidenced by winds out of the southwest sustained at 29 - 34 mph observed at Buoy 42057 to the southeast of 96L's center this morning. Rotation of 96L can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but are bringing torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras. A Personal Weather Station in George Town on Grand Cayman Island has picked up 3.64" of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8am this morning. 96L is not the typical sort of disturbance one sees in the Atlantic, since it is much larger than normal. What has happened is that the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). 96L resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into a regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 96L this afternoon near 2pm EDT to see if it has become a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of 96L. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

Forecast for 96L
Because 96L is so large and lacks a well-defined surface circulation, it will take more time than a typical disturbance for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull 96L north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm for Florida. I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are likely to be in the 30 - 45 mph range on Wednesday. By the time 96L makes landfall in North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday morning or afternoon, it could be as strong as a 55 - 65 mph tropical storm, but I think it is only 20% likely that 96L will make it to hurricane strength on Thursday. The primary danger from the storm is heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been bringing moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With 96L expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation since Saturday for the North Carolina/South Carolina border region. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches have occurred.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once 96L moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The other models are not showing this, but do predict a continuation of the disturbed weather pattern over the Western Caribbean. A second disturbance, if it develops, would be subject to similar steering currents, and may also move northwards across Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas, then up the U.S. East Coast. This second disturbance might be more dangerous, since it would be dumping heavy rains on regions already drenched by 96L.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that Beverly Hills hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with 96L requires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaribBoy:
Looks like a center is forming aver the CI


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Quoting kmanislander:


I think it will strenghten some before moving away and there is a lot of heavy stuff heading our way from the SW as seen below. On top of that I just got a call to pick up my daughter as the schools are closing. Can you believe this ?. They should have done this early this morning, now there will be chaos on Walker's road and parents will have to drive children home during the middle of the day.

Go figure !!

Do you know if government schools are closing too ? My grandson lives with me and I didn't even bother sending him since I work in East End at the P.O. by myself so wouldn't be able to go pick him up. Walkers Road is always a mess when it rains and then with the traffic. I don't envy you at all.
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Looking at the lastest water vapor over florida, looks like we could have some severe weather over central florida this afternoon if we get enough heating.....a lot of lifting just off the FT. Myers coast moving NE
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
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Quoting medic2luv:
Does anyone know when we will get the info back from the Hurricane Hunters?


in a few minutes
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Quoting HurricaneKing:
Link
Looks to be trying to tighten up just a tad. The center looks like its just south of the blowup of convection on the isle of youth. Convection from the south west looks to be trying to wrap up the eastern side. So even in the face of the shear it looks like its slightly strengthening.


correct i was saying that earlyer
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YELLOW CIRCLE ON THE CATL WAVE.
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so just a rain event then
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WTNT31 KNHC 281734
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 82.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
OCCURING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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1000.7 mb and still falling
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Link
Looks to be trying to tighten up just a tad. The center looks like its just south of the blowup of convection on the isle of youth. Convection from the south west looks to be trying to wrap up the eastern side. So even in the face of the shear it looks like its slightly strengthening.
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...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 28
Location: 20.9°N 82.5°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
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its still a TD at 2pm
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Looks like a center is forming aver the CI
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Pressure here in the Lower Keys is 29.58".
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back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am wondering if this slow movement could allow that front to retrograde and force this system a bit further west than forecast


the scary part is whether or not the center stays over water tonight.. if that happens..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting winter123:
This was named just because its threatening the US. It's not nearly well organized enough to be a TD. Exposed not well defined LLC being the main thing.


the NHC doesnt update just cause it threatens land if they did they would not be reliable the nws local forecasts are ment to spread the warning
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Raining up here too. It doesn't look to be moving too much. Do you think there is any chance it gets stronger before it moves away from us ?


I think it will strenghten some before moving away and there is a lot of heavy stuff heading our way from the SW as seen below. On top of that I just got a call to pick up my daughter as the schools are closing. Can you believe this ?. They should have done this early this morning, now there will be chaos on Walker's road and parents will have to drive children home during the middle of the day.

Go figure !!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Does anyone know when we will get the info back from the Hurricane Hunters?
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looks like the center is dead on the 83 and about 20.6N

The models starting points are still too far east IMO.
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Quoting myrtle1:
And thus post-tropical/extratropical transition unfolds

is that good or bad


Not necessarily good... after all, just look at what happened in Newfoundland recently. The wind radii expands, impacts more area (if it is not completely lopsided). In other words, think big Nor'easter!
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Quoting pottery:
Back for a few...

That area centered around 12N 42W is showing good rotation in both the High and Mid level winds.
A large area, with lots of potential there...


I'm glad to find someone talking about something else than 16L lol
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HH descending now
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1248 PAM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

UPDATED TO INSERT TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-291000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
1248 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS....

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORMED IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...BEFORE APPROACHING THE UPPER KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE UPPER
KEYS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

APA
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
Quoting leo305:
it really isn't moving much at all...

drifint N/NNE at less than 5 mph


I am wondering if this slow movement could allow that front to retrograde and force this system a bit further west than forecast
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it really isn't moving much at all...

drifting N/NNE at less than 5 mph
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
CATL system is firing up : 12Z GFS is confused with it's future.
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Preasure down to 1007 in Ruskin Fl. Preasure has been falling for the last 12 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
Quoting hurricanelover236:
I am going to tell you all what is going to happen with this storm. Thr center nay come along the florida coast but the brunt of the moisture will miss florida completely. Its gonna be further east. I doubt theyll get even 3 inches of rain. School will probably be open unfortunately and I doubt it will becme Nicole with all the cuba interaction. Sound plausible everyone?


No. The NHC has said that it is already close to Tropical Storm strength. It will become Nicole. The question is in "if," but when? And the wind flow pattern favors a path that takes it over southeasternmost Florida... Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/W. Palm area.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Just got home for lunch and was surprised to see the barometer down to 1001 mb and still falling. The HH will likely find TD 16 as a TS with pressure near 995.

Very little wind here out of the SSW at about 4 mph and light rain.
Raining up here too. It doesn't look to be moving too much. Do you think there is any chance it gets stronger before it moves away from us ?
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And thus post-tropical/extratropical transition unfolds

is that good or bad
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Cape Coral here, getting an inch of rain right now
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I am going to tell you all what is going to happen with this storm. Thr center nay come along the florida coast but the brunt of the moisture will miss florida completely. Its gonna be further east. I doubt theyll get even 3 inches of rain. School will probably be open unfortunately and I doubt it will becme Nicole with all the cuba interaction. Sound plausible everyone?
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610. MahFL
Quoting tropicalmommie:
Hi Everyone, I maily just lurk and try to soak up all the knowledge I can...But my question is does it look like Key West will get alot of rain from this system?


No your on the west side, the drier side.
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Quoting tropicalmommie:
Hi Everyone, I maily just lurk and try to soak up all the knowledge I can...But my question is does it look like Key West will get alot of rain from this system?


Maybe a little.......

Just kidding, depends on the track.... and what do you call a lot of rain.... 2-3 inches of rain are not out of the picture... tonight
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
Quoting presslord:
nash....Market Street is just an old creekbed which has been filled in....it floods worse than any other part of town...it would be a terrible shame if we got stuck at Henry's...I suppose the only responsible course of action in that case would be to continue drinking...

Hang on.
It sounds like you need me there as well.
I have a Particular Skill that you may find absolutely required in these circumstances.
Be there in the morning........
heheheheh

out, 'till later.
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Just got home for lunch and was surprised to see the barometer down to 1001 mb and still falling. The HH will likely find TD 16 as a TS with pressure near 995.

Very little wind here out of the SSW at about 4 mph and light rain.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting reedzone:


Which is why I said Subtropical/Extratropical transition in the Gulf Stream.


Looks like the NHC agrees with you.
Member Since: September 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
Hi Everyone, I maily just lurk and try to soak up all the knowledge I can...But my question is does it look like Key West will get alot of rain from this system?
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It certainly feels like the good
'ole days in here...love it...
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According to the NHC, the system gets absorbed by the front before it reaches the Mid-Atlantic
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12Z REED run is out :P

Photobucket
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Palm Beach County school district says they will make a decision at 5pm regarding whether to close schools tomorrow.
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Quoting TOMSEFLA:
recon had to fly around western cuba. they were not allowed to cross.


I think that is more for safety, where they won't fly over land that close to a storm, but you could be right.

My understanding is that the HH have full permission from Cuba to their airspace, for obvious reasons.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Ecflweatherfan.....where is your avatar from? Cause I wanna be in that water! It's beautiful.


LOL! Me too... don't know where it is from... but it is a place I would love to be right now :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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