Caribbean disurbance 96L nearly a depression; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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Pressures continue to fall over the Western Caribbean this morning as a strong tropical disturbance (96L) organizes. Surface observations suggest that 96L has a large circulation covering most of the Western Caribbean, as evidenced by winds out of the southwest sustained at 29 - 34 mph observed at Buoy 42057 to the southeast of 96L's center this morning. Rotation of 96L can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but are bringing torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras. A Personal Weather Station in George Town on Grand Cayman Island has picked up 3.64" of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8am this morning. 96L is not the typical sort of disturbance one sees in the Atlantic, since it is much larger than normal. What has happened is that the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). 96L resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into a regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 96L this afternoon near 2pm EDT to see if it has become a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of 96L. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

Forecast for 96L
Because 96L is so large and lacks a well-defined surface circulation, it will take more time than a typical disturbance for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull 96L north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm for Florida. I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are likely to be in the 30 - 45 mph range on Wednesday. By the time 96L makes landfall in North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday morning or afternoon, it could be as strong as a 55 - 65 mph tropical storm, but I think it is only 20% likely that 96L will make it to hurricane strength on Thursday. The primary danger from the storm is heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been bringing moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With 96L expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation since Saturday for the North Carolina/South Carolina border region. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches have occurred.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once 96L moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The other models are not showing this, but do predict a continuation of the disturbed weather pattern over the Western Caribbean. A second disturbance, if it develops, would be subject to similar steering currents, and may also move northwards across Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas, then up the U.S. East Coast. This second disturbance might be more dangerous, since it would be dumping heavy rains on regions already drenched by 96L.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that Beverly Hills hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with 96L requires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Baroclinity
Density lines and isobars cross in a baroclinic fluid (top). As density is related to temperature, on a surface map, isobars and isotherms cross too Density lines and isobars cross in a baroclinic fluid (top). As density is related to temperature, on a surface map, isobars and isotherms cross too

In fluid dynamics, the baroclinity (sometimes called baroclinicity) is a measure of the stratification in a fluid. A baroclinic atmosphere is one for which the density depends on both the temperature and the pressure; contrast this with barotropic atmosphere, for which the density depends only on the pressure. In atmospheric terms, the barotropic zones of the Earth are generally found in the central latitudes, or tropics, whereas the baroclinic areas are generally found in the mid-latitude/polar regions.


Thank you for that *haven't got that far in my textbook!*
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With the computer models all unanimously shifting west from the previous package, expect a shift further west in the track. With this change in thinking, much more rain and wind will likely impact Southeast Florida. It will be interesting to see how much the NHC will shift the track at the next advisory and to see how different the NWS wording will be in correlation with the advisory.
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Quoting HCW:


man thats like striaght north from its current location
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
HurricaneFcast, do you think landfall is more likely in NC or SC from 'Nicole'?


+1 for differentiating
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
HurricaneFcast, do you think landfall is more likely in NC or SC from 'Nicole'?


The COC? Probably SC, although if much of the convection & winds remain displaced east of the center, It will likely be irrelevant because, in such a case, NC would receive the brunt of the weather. Such is normally the case with barolinic systems, though.
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Miami Tropical Cyclone Impacts Webpage
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891. HCW
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I have yet to see a true west wind, are we sure this thing is closed?
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Those model tracks aren't showing up for me.


Try the Link here then.

ATCF Tropical Models
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888. afj3
Quoting chrisdscane:


thats wut recon is giveing back

Cool. Thanks!
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 346
Quoting afj3:
Why is everyone saying its already Nicole. I was just on NHC web site and it's still a TD. Can someone send me a link confirming it's now Nicole? Thanks!


thats wut recon is giveing back
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886. flsky
Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Is it just me or is the center of AL16 consolidating to the southwest of the previous position?

The last time I looked, it seemed like that to me to.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
Wait, isn't the shuttle out at the launchpad right now?
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 409
884. afj3
Why is everyone saying its already Nicole. I was just on NHC web site and it's still a TD. Can someone send me a link confirming it's now Nicole? Thanks!
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 346
Quoting Patrap:
NEW ATCF 18 Z Tracks


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD-16
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)








Those model tracks aren't showing up for me.
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Quoting sporteguy03:

That puts more of Central FL into play and the Orlando metro area as well.
Yes. It also would mean more rain along the east coast of the state and more of a tornado threat
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the mia nws is basing there local area impact on the 06z and 12z models. showing most if not all the heavy weather offvthe se coast. the trending of the models has been west this would bring the higher winds and rains over se fla. maybe they wrote there forecast too soon?
Baroclinity: more info at

Link
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Lower Keys now 29.53 in (Falling). Zip 33042.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:


Ha! Jason, you caught me off guard today. I usually know it's time to get up and dance around when I play your videos, but today's music is so 'serious' and ominous, like impending DOOM!

You do a good job putting those together - Thanks!
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Local Statement - Miami

Excerpt:

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE RAINFALL
FLOODING AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY, HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE ON THE
EAST SIDE. THIS MEANS THAT ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT EAST OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK WILL RESULT IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS
REMAINING OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS, SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, AND SECOND THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST METRO AND COASTAL AREAS.

THERE IS AT THIS TIME ONLY A MINOR CONCERN FOR SLIGHT RISK OF WEAK
TORNADOES ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOME MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.
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look for power problems all over florida it does not take a whole lot of wind to throw branches around
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Quoting nash28:
That's a helluva shift west. More than I expected.


more time over land, weaker

breezy rain event, probably the extent of it here in the Myrtle area. heck Monday may have been worse here when its all said and done. although look at this from the GFS! even though its @850mb


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NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


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Hold on...ATCF updated their 1800z numbers, and both A) lowered wind speeds back to 30 knots, and B) removed the TS designation, pushing the system back to TD status. I've not seen them do that before, but they are human...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al162010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009281842
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, TD, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 855W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 847W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 194N, 841W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 198N, 835W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 204N, 830W, 30, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 826W, 30, 1000, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 375, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
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Quoting HCW:
997.mb now Still looks more Subtropical than Tropical


I now have 999.8 and still falling rapidly. The HH may want to take a look closer to Grand Cayman LOL
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Baroclinity
Density lines and isobars cross in a baroclinic fluid (top). As density is related to temperature, on a surface map, isobars and isotherms cross too Density lines and isobars cross in a baroclinic fluid (top). As density is related to temperature, on a surface map, isobars and isotherms cross too

In fluid dynamics, the baroclinity (sometimes called baroclinicity) is a measure of the stratification in a fluid. A baroclinic atmosphere is one for which the density depends on both the temperature and the pressure; contrast this with barotropic atmosphere, for which the density depends only on the pressure. In atmospheric terms, the barotropic zones of the Earth are generally found in the central latitudes, or tropics, whereas the baroclinic areas are generally found in the mid-latitude/polar regions.
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That's a helluva shift west. More than I expected.
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FLC009-095-282030-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0060.100928T1840Z-100928T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-BREVARD-
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHARPES...MERRITT ISLAND...TITUSVILLE
AIRPORT...TITUSVILLE...SCOTTSMOOR...PORT SAINT JOHN...MIMS...LONE
CABBAGE FISH CAMP...HAULOVER CANAL...COCOA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...


* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 235 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NORTH BREVARD COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES AND LOCAL
REPORTS HAVE TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2834 8067 2840 8073 2860 8073 2862 8080
2834 8072 2834 8091 2878 8097 2877 8084
2862 8080 2869 8079 2871 8075 2877 8082
2877 8076 2866 8067 2876 8073 2876 8070
2866 8063

$$

SEDLOCK
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So this storm will have very little impact on Indian River County?
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cmahan
Baroclinic, it's in the text of his update as well.
Thanks. I didn't read it after watching the video... Oof. short attention span
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
expect the TS Warnings to be extended north along the SW Fla Coast from Cape Sable, to either venice or englewood,fl based on the shift of the models to the west , south florida will only feel gusty winds and very very heavy rain thats it, nothing more unless we get a surprize


didnt we say that before katrina?
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People in Ocala just lost power from that front moving back north.
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 409
Quoting WxLogic:


Well... that sure is a noticeable shift W. The center does appears to be further NW than originally though so models have picked up on this.

That puts more of Central FL into play and the Orlando metro area as well.
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862. HCW
997.mb now Still looks more Subtropical than Tropical
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
expect the TS Warnings to be extended north along the SW Fla Coast from Cape Sable, to either venice or englewood,fl based on the shift of the models to the west , south florida will only feel gusty winds and very very heavy rain thats it, nothing more unless we get a surprize
The models shifting west will cause the watches and warnings to go up further on the east coast since that is the BAD SIDE of the storm.
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
i posted and opinion before... and it appears opinions can be wrong...lol.. FL may get it bad...
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Hey GUys....

There was a neat story about hurricane hunters on the NPR BLOG Studying Storms: NASA Looks For Hurricane's Secrets

EnjoyLink

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Quoting Neapolitan:
We have Nicole:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al162010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009281826
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, TS, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 855W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 847W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 194N, 841W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 198N, 835W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 204N, 832W, 30, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 829W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 250, 0, 0, 1005, 375, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,


Link?
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That is a huge shift left on the dynamic models since this morning.
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expect the TS Warnings to be extended north along the SW Fla Coast from Cape Sable, to either venice or englewood,fl based on the shift of the models to the west , south florida will only feel gusty winds and very very heavy rain thats it, nothing more unless we get a surprize
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting WxBlogAddict:
Just watched Levi's tidbit. thank you! I've seen/heard the word bariclynic (spelling challenged) and I'd like to know the correct spelling so I can look it up. thanks


Baroclinic, it's in the text of his update as well.
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Thanks. I think that did it.
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Quoting Patrap:
NEW ATCF 18 Z Tracks


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD-16
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)








Well... that sure is a noticeable shift W. The center does appears to be further NW than originally though so models have picked up on this.
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1000.1 mb
Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
Oh nevermind about the southwest thing. It's just a bit north of the previous position.
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Quoting seflagamma:
Hi again, quick post trying to stay caught up here, watch my grandson (9 1/2 mos and trying to walk) and get some things done around the house!

anyway I was out running an errand and had to go into a City Hall here in Broward.. they had NO IDEA we even had a storm out there and actually told me "No we are not under any watches or warnings" I had to tell them, Yes we are under a Tropical STorm Warning...

so much for our government officials... even here in Ft Lauderdale area.. one would think...
'just saying.. LOL


anyway, they probably will not make any decisions about schools for tomorrow until 5pm tonight....



Thanks for the info, this is the first year my daughter is in preschool and I was wondering about closures for tomorrow!
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Quoting A4Guy:
Our storm is really starting to wrap moisture around herself. depending on how quickly she can fill in the gaps, she might have her act together once in the FL straits, and be a strong trop storm.


What she does with the pressure falls tonight will be key. She's broad and hopefully that's our best friend. Out of respect to the reliable models shifting west, the NHC should follow suit and split the difference with a track between Lake O and the East Coast. Not a big deal however unless she tightens up the circulation.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting WxBlogAddict:
Just watched Levi's tidbit. thank you! I've seen/heard the word bariclynic (spelling challenged) and I'd like to know the correct spelling so I can look it up. thanks


Extratropical Cyclone:
A cyclone of any intensity for which the primary energy source is baroclinic, that is, results from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.