Caribbean disurbance 96L nearly a depression; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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Pressures continue to fall over the Western Caribbean this morning as a strong tropical disturbance (96L) organizes. Surface observations suggest that 96L has a large circulation covering most of the Western Caribbean, as evidenced by winds out of the southwest sustained at 29 - 34 mph observed at Buoy 42057 to the southeast of 96L's center this morning. Rotation of 96L can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but are bringing torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras. A Personal Weather Station in George Town on Grand Cayman Island has picked up 3.64" of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8am this morning. 96L is not the typical sort of disturbance one sees in the Atlantic, since it is much larger than normal. What has happened is that the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). 96L resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into a regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 96L this afternoon near 2pm EDT to see if it has become a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of 96L. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

Forecast for 96L
Because 96L is so large and lacks a well-defined surface circulation, it will take more time than a typical disturbance for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull 96L north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm for Florida. I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are likely to be in the 30 - 45 mph range on Wednesday. By the time 96L makes landfall in North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday morning or afternoon, it could be as strong as a 55 - 65 mph tropical storm, but I think it is only 20% likely that 96L will make it to hurricane strength on Thursday. The primary danger from the storm is heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been bringing moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With 96L expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation since Saturday for the North Carolina/South Carolina border region. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches have occurred.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once 96L moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The other models are not showing this, but do predict a continuation of the disturbed weather pattern over the Western Caribbean. A second disturbance, if it develops, would be subject to similar steering currents, and may also move northwards across Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas, then up the U.S. East Coast. This second disturbance might be more dangerous, since it would be dumping heavy rains on regions already drenched by 96L.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that Beverly Hills hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with 96L requires.

Jeff Masters

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LOL great, let the madness ensue! People see warnings around here (meaning the Keys) and everyone starts getting nutty! Most don't pay attention to the actual setup of the storm, they just see WARNING and freak!
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Quoting houston144:
for me this is the perfect example of whats wrong with the way systems are tracked, 96L is the remains of Matthew we all watched him pull a 180 and head back out south of cuba...so why the 96L?

Any one notice anything weird the last two days around Dallas Texas?


Weird, how? Nice fall weather? :D
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They have a tropical storm warning for us, but won't Cuba tear it up with all of it's mountains?
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244. srada


Im thinking with TS Nicole entering the gulf stream after exiting florida, it could get riled up if low shear is the case..
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Up the southeast Florida coast


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11163
242. Kearn
go farther west soon-to-be nicole

grass is getting crunchy in florida
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Quoting centex:
Real bad news coming out of Mexico this morning. All that rain from Matthew ended up being worse than we feared.
Landslides?
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Quoting IKE:
MAX WIND 40 KT

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Shutters up?
Shower curtains up?
Lets hope this place doesn't turn into a loonie bin over a weak ts. Good to see disappation in 72 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 4 8 12 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 44 31 32 29 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 53 60 54 51 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 1 4 6 9 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 5 7 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT NA NA NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MARATHON FL 34 X 11(11) 13(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

KEY WEST FL 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

HAVANA 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

ISLE OF PINES 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

CIENFUEGOS 34 5 23(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

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238. IKE
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
OCCURING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
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Real bad news coming out of Mexico this morning. All that rain from Matthew ended up being worse than we feared.
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Quoting IKE:
MAX WIND 40 KT

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Shutters up?
Shower curtains up?

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

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Does anyone see the MAX wind speed table?
Is it not up?

Link
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IMO this is going to the Bahamas.. Dirty side of storm to remain off shore...Don't get me wrong.. FL will have some rain,.. but I don't see 6+in..
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NHC issuing advisories on TD SIXTEEN
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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
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229. IKE
MAX WIND 40 KT

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Shutters up?
Shower curtains up?
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Quoting barotropic:


Could be the second system shown by models.....


Possibly, I had originally thought that was TD16 until I saw the coordinates.
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Quoting BobinTampa:


so if I said: "in my opinion, this will strike Texas as a Category 5", that couldn't be proven wrong?


*lol* I guess not until it makes landfall elsewhere and dissapates.

Ahhh...semantics...
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You made an assumption. The track was just posted. Your assumption was wrong. Man up, it's no biggy.
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NHC drops it by Thursday morning as extratropical......hmmmmm
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Cone right over PBC, and wind speed forecast not yet ready.
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Although pre-Nicole will be a wind and rain event for the east coast, the models stretch it out like a tadpole all the way up the east coast. Pre-Otto will be the one of possible concern for SW Fl. 7 days from now. Its vorticity is much more impressive with the models. this is the one to really watch IMO.
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Quoting reedzone:


Here in Flagler County in 2005, when I was a senior in HS, we NEVER closed on Tropical Storms. Ophelia was off the coastline, had warnings, but school was still in session. Tammy as well, although Wilma caused a scare here and they closed.

000
WTNT81 KNHC 281451
TCVAT1

SIXTEEN WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN

FLZ075-168-172-173-174-282100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.100928T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W
JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W

$$

FLZ054-059-064-282100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.100928T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W
SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W

$$

FLZ076-077-078-282100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.100928T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W
OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W

Anyone have any idea what this means
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221. IKE
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NHC calls for Extratropical transition before hitting the Carolinas.. A Noreaster.
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Quoting FSUstormnut:
fyi.. opinions are NEVER wrong...


so if I said: "in my opinion, this will strike Texas as a Category 5", that couldn't be proven wrong?
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Quoting Grothar:


You hope. How you doing, Canes? Got all your supplies ready?


Yes I do. In the meanwhile, I think this song that i'm listening to fits what's going on right now. Also, i'm expecting a cancellation of classes from my university anytime now that Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted up for us.
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm still seeing a circulation near Yucatan with some banding, possible it's own separate entity, maybe Otto in the future? Possible.


Could be the second system shown by models.....
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I'd expect the 11 am to come out on the late side.
But now that I said that, it will be early or on time.

The 16L just popped up on the main page, they're inputting the info now :O)
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A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.


That solves it!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Totally! Mine are crossed as well. I mean we barely had time to dry out if the pumps are still on!!


We're in a bit of a low spot near the GC reservoir. If 96L does look as if it's going to stay close to shore, am going to have to do a little drainage work out back before the day is over.
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Warnings for FL, Cuba, Bahamas. Watches for SC/NC by tonight/tomorrow morning.
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211. myway
Quoting reedzone:


Here in Flagler County in 2005, when I was a senior in HS, we NEVER closed on Tropical Storms. Ophelia was off the coastline, had warnings, but school was still in session. Tammy as well, although Wilma caused a scare here and they closed.


Initial school closings are based on Bus safety. If it is determined that winds or flooding could be an issue for high profile vehicles such as a bus, then they may close.
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right over WPB!
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Quoting afj3:

Is it possible that warnings and watches won't even be necessary for Florida?


Anything is possible, very very unlikely.
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NHC is posting sixteen right now
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205. 7544
Quoting reedzone:
NHC sure taking their sweet little tie with this one.


they are making the cone lol
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN Forecast/Advisory
Home Fcst/Adv Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT21 KNHC 281451
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...
THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Yes, school would be closed if we had a tropical storm coming
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fyi.. opinions are NEVER wrong...
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Most of those little vortices we're witnessing will get ripped apart or absorbed once a developed system forms.

Once Nichole's lifted out of the area, that's not to say another won't form there.
Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
I'd expect the 11 am to come out on the late side.
But now that I said that, it will be early or on time.
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NHC sure taking their sweet little time with this one.
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any word on the advisory nothing out yet ???
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
197. afj3
Quoting bballerf50:


Wrong. It would be warnings for everyone. It would be here tomorrow.

Is it possible that warnings and watches won't even be necessary for Florida?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.