Caribbean disurbance 96L nearly a depression; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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Pressures continue to fall over the Western Caribbean this morning as a strong tropical disturbance (96L) organizes. Surface observations suggest that 96L has a large circulation covering most of the Western Caribbean, as evidenced by winds out of the southwest sustained at 29 - 34 mph observed at Buoy 42057 to the southeast of 96L's center this morning. Rotation of 96L can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but are bringing torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras. A Personal Weather Station in George Town on Grand Cayman Island has picked up 3.64" of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8am this morning. 96L is not the typical sort of disturbance one sees in the Atlantic, since it is much larger than normal. What has happened is that the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). 96L resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into a regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 96L this afternoon near 2pm EDT to see if it has become a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of 96L. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

Forecast for 96L
Because 96L is so large and lacks a well-defined surface circulation, it will take more time than a typical disturbance for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull 96L north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm for Florida. I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are likely to be in the 30 - 45 mph range on Wednesday. By the time 96L makes landfall in North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday morning or afternoon, it could be as strong as a 55 - 65 mph tropical storm, but I think it is only 20% likely that 96L will make it to hurricane strength on Thursday. The primary danger from the storm is heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been bringing moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With 96L expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation since Saturday for the North Carolina/South Carolina border region. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches have occurred.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once 96L moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The other models are not showing this, but do predict a continuation of the disturbed weather pattern over the Western Caribbean. A second disturbance, if it develops, would be subject to similar steering currents, and may also move northwards across Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas, then up the U.S. East Coast. This second disturbance might be more dangerous, since it would be dumping heavy rains on regions already drenched by 96L.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that Beverly Hills hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with 96L requires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting afj3:
All the convection is east of the storm's center. Looks like South Florida won't be affected...


Less effect, maybe, florida wont be affected, I don't believe that.
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Quoting largeeyes:
Can someone explain this?

DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.

That mean it will merge with a temperate low pressure system. The kind of North Easter Low you get all the time Fall/winter/Spring off the East Coast of the US.
While these can be very bad rain/ stormy events even with very strong winds(40Knots but RARELY over 50 although I saw 100knot gust once Hatteras) they are not the closed circulation storms hurricanes and Tropical storms are with the sustained/intense very high winds.
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Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:


I have heard plenty about the schools system down there, I have heard horror stories of some schools so over crowed that they have up to 40 students in a portable. Not to mention the board is constantly trying to make cuts to the budget. So that is why you see 20 year old teachers texting, and trying to teach at the same time. The priority is not knowledge, it is all about $.


When you see the public middle school I went to, there were 30 or more kids in portables, and they have 25 of them.
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Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
Well my children are safe here in New York, but If I lived in south Florida I would be up in arms if they decided to keep schools down there open! With the combination of the front, a tropical storm moving in the states general direction, warnings posted as of 11 am.... Is that not enough to convince the school boards to play it safe? Overall it is just not going to be a good day to be on the roads, I hope they do not take the risk anyway, then you wonder why the other 49 states questions Florida's education.


It will be decided at 11pm. Sustained winds greater than 40mph will close the schools.
Because it is unsafe for bus travel. They don't like to close schools it costs the district alot of money when this happens. However lawsuit are much worse.


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Quoting StormChaser81:


A Quoter of a down caster, even worse than a downcaster. It's a person that keeps the downcasting message alive.


A quoter of a quoter of a downcaster is worse yet as it continues to keep the message alive..... LOL
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Quoting cburns99:
Tropical Storm Warnings shut down schools I believe.

Check Here for news.

http://www.palmbeachschools.org
each county makes their own call
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Quoting StormChaser81:


A Quoter of a down caster, even worse than a downcaster. It's a person that keeps the downcasting message alive.


LOL! Nothing to downcast really...Nicole will probably be another Bonnie type event...
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Quoting katadman:
Don't know if anyone has reported this or not here. There have been shootings on the UT Austin campus.


yeah, scary stuff watching it
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Quoting caneswatch:


+1000000, you should see the idiots that run the schools here, they only care about kids going to school and not their safety.


The responsibility should be on the parents.......

Do you really trust anything the Govt. is connected to specially regarding the safety of our kids.

I'll take care of that on my own. Thank you.




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Quoting Bordonaro:

That is awful, I am really sorry to hear that, I hope no one was killed and they catch the shooter!!!!


Gunman shot and killed himself. They think there may be a 2nd suspect though.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Downcaster!! :)


A Quoter of a down caster, even worse than a downcaster. It's a person that keeps the downcasting message alive.

You make me sick Sir. =)
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Tropical Storm Warnings shut down schools I believe.

Check Here for news.

http://www.palmbeachschools.org
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Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1006 mb. (29.71 inHg | 1006 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 360 nautical miles (414 miles | 667 kilometers).

Radius of Max Winds: 180 nautical miles (207 miles | 333 kilometers)

Wind Gusts: 40 knots (46 mph | 21 m/s)

Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
Under a tropical storm warning.


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Quoting katadman:
Don't know if anyone has reported this or not here. There have been shootings on the UT Austin campus.

That is awful, I am really sorry to hear that, I hope no one was killed and they catch the shooter!!!!
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Zzzzzzz. Season a bust! All the hype of the US getting hit by multiple storms. Lol never will listen to these so called experts again.
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Quoting StormChaser81:
I wouldn't be surprised if FL barely see's any significant rain fall, when TD16 reaches the higher shear values, the higher shear will most likely push the convection even further from the center.


Downcaster!! :)
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I wouldn't be surprised if FL barely see's any significant rain fall, when TD16 reaches the higher shear values, the higher shear will most likely push the convection even further from the center.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
i'm sure the nhc would rather be safe than sorry..
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277. Ookla
Quoting FSUstormnut:
fyi.. opinions are NEVER wrong...

Yeah, well, that's just like, your opinion, man.
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Don't know if anyone has reported this or not here. There have been shootings on the UT Austin campus.
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Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
Well my children are safe here in New York, but If I lived in south Florida I would be up in arms if they decided to keep schools down there open! With the combination of the front, a tropical storm moving in the states general direction, warnings posted as of 11 am.... Is that not enough to convince the school boards to play it safe? Overall it is just not going to be a good day to be on the roads, I hope they do not take the risk anyway, then you wonder why the other 49 states questions Florida's education.



I don't know if you've ever been in a hurricane or TS, but it's usually not nearly as big a deal as the national media makes it out to be. 90% of South Floridians, including myself, are either yawning at this or looking forward to it.
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Quoting afj3:
All the convection is east of the storm's center. Looks like South Florida won't be affected...


Thanks, I guess I will head to the beach tomorrow
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Quoting FSUstormnut:

very true..


Then why were warnings posted up?
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Quoting afj3:
All the convection is east of the storm's center. Looks like South Florida won't be affected...

very true..
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I lived in the North (Ohio) for many years.... The wind and rain from a TS is to them like 3-5 inches of snow up there to Ohioans.... No big deal, It would take 6+ in. of snow to close the schools up there sorta like it would take a CAT 1 to close them down here.
Well said. They don't need to close the schools yet.
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Can someone explain this?

DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
Well my children are safe here in New York, but If I lived in south Florida I would be up in arms if they decided to keep schools down there open! With the combination of the front, a tropical storm moving in the states general direction, warnings posted as of 11 am.... Is that not enough to convince the school boards to play it safe? Overall it is just not going to be a good day to be on the roads, I hope they do not take the risk anyway, then you wonder why the other 49 states questions Florida's education.


+1000000, you should see the idiots that run the schools here, they only care about kids going to school and not their safety.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
Well my children are safe here in New York, but If I lived in south Florida I would be up in arms if they decided to keep schools down there open! With the combination of the front, a tropical storm moving in the states general direction, warnings posted as of 11 am.... Is that not enough to convince the school boards to play it safe? Overall it is just not going to be a good day to be on the roads, I hope they do not take the risk anyway, then you wonder why the other 49 states questions Florida's education.


I lived in the North (Ohio) for many years.... The wind and rain from a TS is to them like 3-5 inches of snow up there to Ohioans.... No big deal, It would take 6+ in. of snow to close the schools up there sorta like it would take a CAT 1 to close them down here.
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Quoting Grothar:


They have been trending a little further inland, i've noticed.
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I am thinking it will be Nicole at the 5pm advisory
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Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
Well my children are safe here in New York, but If I lived in south Florida I would be up in arms if they decided to keep schools down there open! With the combination of the front, a tropical storm moving in the states general direction, warnings posted as of 11 am.... Is that not enough to convince the school boards to play it safe? Overall it is just not going to be a good day to be on the roads, I hope they do not take the risk anyway, then you wonder why the other 49 states questions Florida's education.


There most likely going to keep them open.

The blog cant take a school day off.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
263. afj3
All the convection is east of the storm's center. Looks like South Florida won't be affected...
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Quoting weatherman12345:

whent he hurrican hunters go in later.. they can maybe find it stronger

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.6N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.6N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Why am I not surprised with the paragraph that you highlighted.
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Quoting divdog:
Even if the mountains have zero effect it is still only a 40 kt tropical storm. South florida has stronger winds in thuderstorms than that.

Looks like the Bahama's will get the worst of this one when it's all said and done. IMO
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
000
WTNT41 KNHC 281458
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.6N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
16L.SIXTEEN
14L.LISA

East Pacific
97E.INVEST

Central Pacific

West Pacific
92W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
92A.INVEST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
They have a tropical storm warning for us, but won't Cuba tear it up with all of it's mountains?
Even if the mountains have zero effect it is still only a 40 kt tropical storm. South florida has stronger winds in thuderstorms than that.
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Quoting FSUstormnut:
IMO this is going to the Bahamas.. Dirty side of storm to remain off shore...Don't get me wrong.. FL will have some rain,.. but I don't see 6+in..


I agree. Worst of it would be miles into south east. looking good for Florida.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
252. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Most of the winds and rain will be off the shores of FL. to the East!


Sure looks that way...unless the structure changes.

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Quoting connie1976:
They have a tropical storm warning for us, but won't Cuba tear it up with all of it's mountains?


Too quick of a mover to be affected by the mountains.
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Most of the winds and rain will be off the shores of FL. to the East!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
Gnhc going against the models for the first time this year. Wow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
248. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.6N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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LOL great, let the madness ensue! People see warnings around here (meaning the Keys) and everyone starts getting nutty! Most don't pay attention to the actual setup of the storm, they just see WARNING and freak!
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 409

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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