Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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well this sounds bad for us

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280909
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEEDED FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
AT ANY TIME>. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS>...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.


AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2563. nash28
Quoting presslord:


we'll have to invite Stormjunkie...even though he's a Gamecock fan...


LOL! Yes of course. Party wouldn't be complete without SJ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwart:


Doesn't sound like fun. I'm thinking about y'all down there. Let's hope this thing lifts up and out quickly.
Thanks for the thoughts. It's just that I know the possibility of it developing quickly in the western Caribbean so I am watching it close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2560. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:


This is no surprise, since these systems often have multiple vortices. We will see which one will dominate.


Indeed... for now it does appear the current position is in control for the time being based on Shortwave loops.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
2559. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Stopped reporting at 5:20 am EST. At that time it was showing pressure at 1000 mb. Rain has been non-stop all night. Cayman Brac reported pressure at 998 mb. Something is definitely going on around here.


Doesn't sound like fun. I'm thinking about y'all down there. Let's hope this thing lifts up and out quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12 Hour



48 Hour

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nash28:
You got it Press! We'll party. Could be a very wet Friday for us.


we'll have to invite Stormjunkie...even though he's a Gamecock fan...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
So my real question of the day, we're in Naples, FL (SW FL). Does anyone think this thing could blow up into a Hurricane before clipping us, or is this ruled out pretty much for now? Is there anything keeping it from developing into a Hurricane at this point? Thanks!


Also in Naples. It is a big system which will hinder rapid development. There is also westerly shear from the front stalled to our north that will help to push the heaviest precip to the east of us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherMSK:


Good call. CMC did show it to the tee how its currently panning out.


still showing 3 systems ....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:
CMC 00z from yesterday expected this system to relocate its center beneath the main convection mass.

Take it look at the track:

Link


Good call. CMC did show it to the tee how its currently panning out.
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Quoting futuremet:
If this occurs, it will likely move farther east or miss Florida. However, this puts South Carolina an the rest of the states in the southeast coast in more danger.


Shush!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


I do believe the center still at 19.5N 84.5W... which tend to agree with SFC obs:



This is no surprise, since these systems often have multiple vortices. We will see which one will dominate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2549. nash28
You got it Press! We'll party. Could be a very wet Friday for us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwart:
Hey stormwatcherCI, how's your weather situation?
Stopped reporting at 5:20 am EST. At that time it was showing pressure at 1000 mb. Rain has been non-stop all night. Cayman Brac reported pressure at 998 mb. Something is definitely going on around here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gale force from the 06Z GFDL just based on the storm speed, quickly up the east coast.


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.0 84.7 77./ 8.9
6 19.0 84.6 124./ .3
12 19.3 84.1 56./ 5.5
18 19.8 83.4 58./ 8.8
24 20.6 82.8 35./ 9.2
30 21.4 81.9 48./11.4
36 23.0 81.3 23./17.4
42 24.8 80.4 25./19.9
48 27.2 79.7 17./24.7
54 30.0 79.1 11./28.0
60 33.2 78.4 13./32.4
66 36.2 77.2 20./32.2
72 38.8 75.2 39./30.1
78 41.6 72.6 43./34.8
84 45.0 69.2 46./41.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 84 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Red Sky - Sailor's Warning? please explain.. thanks =)
sailsors/boater's statement, red sky at night, sailor's delight (meaning next day should be a good boating day weather-wise); red sky in morning, sailors take warning (meaning not a good boating day weather-wise)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CMC 00z from yesterday expected this system to relocate its center beneath the main convection mass.

Take it look at the track:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Red Sky - Sailor's Warning? please explain.. thanks =)
An old poem. Red Sky in the morning, sailors take warning. Red sky at night, sailors delight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2542. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:
The center seems to be relocating beneath the massive blob of convection.850mb vorticiy maps from CIMSS indicate this.







I do believe the center still at 19.5N 84.5W... which tend to agree with SFC obs:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If it relocates the center to where futuremet is saying it would most likely go east or across the southern tip of Florida. Not up the west coast.
it, being any type of center, is not forecast to go up the west coast of Florida
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Hey stormwatcherCI, how's your weather situation?
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Quoting surfmom:

FORGIVEN - great shot -....love, love a beautiful FL sunrise - hummmm wait a minute... sky is red.... Red Sky in Morning - Sailor's Warning


Red Sky - Sailor's Warning? please explain.. thanks =)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice sunrise in Naples a short while ago. Love the inverted over-the-horizon cloud shadows. (And please forgive the poor resolution; I shot this with a poor-quality cellphone camera while stopped at a red light.)

sunrise
Beautiful picture, Neopolitan! Based on the current direction of this invest, the trough firmly in place over North and Central Florida and the most recent model runs, how was Central Florida included in the two?

My thinking is that it would have to slam on the brakes, head due North and rapidly intensify for Central Florida to feel any effects. What am I missing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2536. Detrina
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If it relocates the center to where futuremet is saying it would most likely go east or across the southern tip of Florida. Not up the west coast.


thanks:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this occurs, it will likely move farther east or miss Florida. However, this puts South Carolina an the rest of the states in the southeast coast in more danger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Detrina:
relocation of center = what for track please in regards to tampa area? thx!
If it relocates the center to where futuremet is saying it would most likely go east or across the southern tip of Florida. Not up the west coast.
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2533. scott39
Quoting Detrina:
relocation of center = what for track please in regards to tampa area? thx!
Farther E away from you.
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By the way my weather station is reading 1004 mb in Jamaica.
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Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.

Good morning, futuremet. Good thing we have other tools, because you sure can't see any COC on any visible. lol I even had my magnifiying glass out.
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2530. 7544
Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.


does the front stallout that will tell all
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Quoting OctaviaStreet:


And if you know anyone--teenager maybe?--who might like to make a little money digging a short trench and a sump pump basin in an old broad's backyard in Hanahan, please let me know! That was 'way too much rain yesterday and I'm sure there was water in the crawlspace.

As always, thanks to you all for working so hard to keep us informed.

Off to phys therapy, back later this a.m.


check your WU mail
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2528. Detrina
relocation of center = what for track please in regards to tampa area? thx!
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Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.

What would this mean for Jamaica, as most of the residents here have no clue what is lurking off of the coast.
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Quoting presslord:
nash...let's stay in touch over the next 48 hours...might be party time...


And if you know anyone--teenager maybe?--who might like to make a little money digging a short trench and a sump pump basin in an old broad's backyard in Hanahan, please let me know! That was 'way too much rain yesterday and I'm sure there was water in the crawlspace.

As always, thanks to you all for working so hard to keep us informed.

Off to phys therapy, back later this a.m.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2525. scott39
Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.
So it could possibly miss Fl?
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Quoting futuremet:
The center seems to be relocating beneath the massive blob of convection.850mb vorticiy maps from CIMSS indicate this.







Would likely miss FL east coast.
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If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.
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Good morning. So, a big, messy, blobby invest nearing TD status this morning. I know there's some circulation in there somewhere. Dang, who would have thought that trough would have dug in so deep.

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The center seems to be relocating beneath the massive blob of convection.850mb vorticiy maps from CIMSS indicate this.





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2520. scott39
I know its 12 days out but the GFS shows a stronger TC in the SE GOM.
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2519. surfmom
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice sunrise in Naples a short while ago. Love the inverted over-the-horizon cloud shadows. (And please forgive the poor resolution; I shot this with a poor-quality cellphone camera while stopped at a red light.)

sunrise

FORGIVEN - great shot -....love, love a beautiful FL sunrise - hummmm wait a minute... sky is red.... Red Sky in Morning - Sailor's Warning
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2517. 7544
morning all looks at the big red ball looks like it could be already a ts but i guess they will wait for plane to go in and call it .
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2516. WxLogic
Good Morning...

80% Chance... we'll have to see now what the 8AM TWO will update, but I do believe it will stay at 80% to no more than 90% for the time being.



Not much organization quite yet but appears to be getting there.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Nice sunrise in Naples a short while ago. Love the inverted over-the-horizon cloud shadows. (And please forgive the poor resolution; I shot this with a low-quality cellphone camera while stopped at a red light [Airport & Orange Blossom].)

sunrise
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13567

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.