Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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Quoting breald:
Isn't it ironic that Canada has had the most damage due to hurricanes so far this year. Some amazing pictures from Newfoundland.
I think Mexico, with over US$3 billion in damage would disagree.

Cancun radar shows a circulation off Cozumel:

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If somebody would've told me a month ago that we would have zero big storms in the central or northeren GOM thru the end of September, I wouldn't have believed it. Shields are still up!
Hey, don't knock it!
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Quoting dayton:
I'm just checking in here...without going back and reading old posts, could someone answer a couple of questions for me?


FWIW, I very seldom respond to posts that start this way; I'm never sure whether the person will go back and read any reply, since I have no way of knowing what they consider an "old post". Something written minutes before? Hours? Days? Plus it implies a certain amount of privilege: "Look, my time is too important for me to waste it reading anything you guys have written previously; rewrite it again for me, this time as an executive summary. And make it quick! Time is money!"

Just sayin'...
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Quoting divdog:
First week of october and northeastern gulf coast is all but shut off. History and climatology tell us that.


Tell that to hurricane Kate.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
Matthew is still hangin' in there like a hair in a biscuit!
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Quoting WxLogic:


By 18Z is should be heading towards the INVEST... but subject to change assuming it gets designated as an INVEST prior to 18Z.

If current convective activity continues to increase/organization we should have by possibly 11AM today 96L, but if there's not then no INVEST until possibly later today.


18z = 2 pm Eastern Time?
Thanks.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Which blob is the main one? Or are all of them part of the same system?
Thanks.

Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good Morning,

Does anyone know when the RECON is supposed to leave/arrive at "pre 96L"? I tried looking here , but obviously I'm missing soemthing.

Also, in there TWO at 8 am, they didn't mention the possible RECON mission. Does anyone know why? They usually do.

Thanks


By 18Z is should be heading towards the INVEST... but subject to change assuming it gets designated as an INVEST prior to 18Z.

If current convective activity continues to increase/organization we should have by possibly 11AM today 96L, but if there's not then no INVEST until possibly later today.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I'm gonna assume you mean more damge than the US. Mexico has had more than their share!


Yes, mostly the USA. I know the season is not over but boy they have been the target of two very strong Atlantic hurricanes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah.

We'll see how you guys live through October.
First week of october and northeastern gulf coast is all but shut off. History and climatology tell us that.
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Quoting TampaTom:
Are there any forecasts for the cold front entering Florida?

So far, I've seen on the NWS Ruskin site that they are expecting it to advance to a line running from say Fort Myers up to Cocoa Beach...

Any idea how strong it will stay, will there be a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it? Needless to say, this will have a major impact on the path any proto-Nichole takes to the north...
....nope supposed to be stationary,that's why the good doc stated the pattern should be the same towards end week/becoming next week as another tc forms in the nw carin and advects north or northeast imo...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I believe they only do that for high chance situations.


They only do what?
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah.....

We'll see how you guys handle October.


Seasons not done yet, certainly. But we've done ok so far!
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Quoting kshipre1:
so, it looks like the threat for a tropical storm or hurricane has decreased? Looks like just a rain event?


My advice for questions like this today, keep following the NHC and your local NWS. If anything the chances have gone up to 30% from 10% yesterday so no the chances have increased.

Another thing people need to keep in mind is your local forecast can change, no sense of NWS posting watches or warnings or making huge modifications yet until the NHC finds a system first, once and if that happens your local forecast will be adjusted accordingly.
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good Morning,

Does anyone know when the RECON is supposed to leave/arrive at "pre 96L"? I tried looking here , but obviously I'm missing soemthing.

Also, in there TWO at 8 am, they didn't mention the possible RECON mission. Does anyone know why? They usually do.

Thanks


I believe they only do that for high chance situations.
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Quoting breald:
Isn't it ironic that Canada has had the most damage due to hurricanes so far this year. Some amazing pictures from Newfoundland.


I'm gonna assume you mean more damge than the US. Mexico has had more than their share!
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Good Morning,

Does anyone know when the RECON is supposed to leave/arrive at "pre 96L"? I tried looking here , but obviously I'm missing soemthing.

Also, in their TWO at 8 am, they didn't mention the possible RECON mission. Does anyone know why? They usually do.

Thanks
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
Morning everyone.
Is the cold front over North GOM the trough that is supposed to lift the caribbean disturbance NNE?

WVLoopCarib

Found it in Dr. M's blog:
A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Waking up slower than usual this morning.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If somebody would've told me a month ago that we would have zero big storms in the central or northeren GOM thru the end of September, I wouldn't have believed it. Shields are still up!


Yeah.....

We'll see how you guys handle October.
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Isn't it ironic that Canada has had the most damage due to hurricanes so far this year. Some amazing pictures from Newfoundland.
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KILM is discounting the GFS and going Euro

000
FXUS62 KILM 271147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
747 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE LAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND STALL JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LAST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER CLOSED LOW AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND BECOME NEUTRAL
TILTED VIA GFS/NAM...ALTHOUGH IT TRIES TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
BUT DOESNOT QUITE MAKE IT DURING THE NEAR TERM. A TROPICAL MOISTURE
FEED WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
AND VIA NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATING A MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU
THE MAJORITY OF THE ATM COLUMN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PWS ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY BEING ON THE WEAK SIDE. THE INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL
HELP OFFSET THE LACKING INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. WET BULBS AND FREEZING
LEVEL ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH AND THEREFORE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN POTENTIAL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY GIVEN A FAVORABLE PROGGED HODOGRAPHS. DECENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A TIGHTENED SFC PG. THIS
WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MARINE LAYER INLAND WHICH COULD HAVE A
STABILIZATION EFFECT OR BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT DAMAGING CONVECTIVE
WIND GUSTS ALOFT FROM BREACHING THE SFC. MAX/MIN DIURNAL RANGE WILL
LIKELY BE UNDER 10 DEGREES DUE TO PCPN AND OVERCAST SKIES. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH HAVE A COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST EARLY TUE
BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA. 5H TROF AXIS REMAINS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE THE FRONT.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE
REGION WHILE KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY BERMUDA HIGH WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD UNSETTLED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIP BOTH DAYS.

LATEST GFS HAS LOST THE MIDWEEK CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND
NOW FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS IS STILL VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
12Z ECMWF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTIONS...KEEPS
THE FEATURE AS A WEAK LOW OR EVEN JUST A SURFACE WAVE. ECMWF HAS
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT AND THE NEW GFS HAS SHIFTED ITS UPPER PATTERN
CLOSER TO THAT OF THE ECMWF. PLAN TO KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/HPC SOLUTIONS...AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO ON
EITHER SIDE. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FRONT STALLED ALONG THE COAST THU IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
OFFSHORE FRI AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA.
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IS CONCERNING THE FEATURE THAT EMERGES
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MID WEEK. THE GFS REALLY CRANKS THIS
UP WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FEATURE LITTLE MORE THAN A SURFACE WAVE
AS IT PASSES THU INTO THU NIGHT. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE AND THE GFS HAS BEEN LACKING CONSISTENCY
WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF/HPC SOLUTIONS AND IS ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI SHOULD STALLED FRONT BE SLOW TO
MOVE OUT. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO BUT AIR MASS
CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 12Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD DUE TO
FREQUENTLY CHANGING CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS AND TEMPO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY THIS MORNING WITH POTENT UPPER
LOW OVER TN AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GOM AND UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS EXPECTED TODAY.
NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ROUND THIS
AFTN/EVE. TRYING TO TIME HEAVIER CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...BUT DO HAVE TEMPO IFR THROUGH THE FIRST 3 HOURS
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR VSBYS.

BEST RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE AT THE COAST...SO INLAND MAY
AVOID THE REAL HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...SATURATED
PROFILE IS CREATING WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND ANTICIPATE THAT
BOTH LBT/FLO WILL SEE IFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THAT EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY...ENOUGH
INSOLATION SHOULD RAISE CIGS ABOVE IFR BY THIS AFTN...BUT AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NECESSARY. BY THIS AFTN...A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR RENEWED CONVECTION WITH TS AND IFR...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE INDICATED MVFR AND WILL UPDATE WITH LATER ISSUANCES. RAIN AND
TS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...AND HAVE INDICATED
SHRA/VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS TO THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE AFTN WITH 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY
TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER CLOSED LOW LIFTING NE
ALONG THE BACKBONE OF THE APPALACHIANS...REACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL FIRE
UP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THE SFC THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS...BUILDING UP
TO 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED EARLY ON AND BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 KT AND EVEN EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS GIVEN
THE WIND SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND REMAIN STALLED OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
WED NIGHT. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...BUT CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION. GRADIENT SUGGESTS SPEEDS NO GREATER
THE 15 KT...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
IF ANY SURFACE WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GFS CONTINUES TO
MOVE DEEPENING LOW IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT NOT
READY TO BELIEVE IT. FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS A MUCH
WEAKER WAVE AND RESULTS IN SPEEDS JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS WED
NIGHT. SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...HIGHEST TUE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THE GFS WHICH SHOWS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE WATERS THU/THU NIGHT.
INSTEAD FAVOR THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FEATURE WEAKER. THE ECMWF
DOES SHOW THE WAVE HAVING AND IMPACT ON THE GRADIENT...PUSHING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AND EAST OF THE WAVE/LOW CLOSE TO 20 KT.
HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE...WHICH WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT TO WIND...BOTH
SPEED AND DIRECTION. FEATURE MAY END UP MOVING OVER THE WATERS WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR 20 KT SOUTHEAST FLOW THU
FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SPEEDS THU NIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FEATURE WITH PINCHED GRADIENT PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT.
THOUGH WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA...SEAS SHOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SCA LATE THU INTO FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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Happy Monday to all.
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If somebody would've told me a month ago that we would have zero big storms in the central or northeren GOM thru the end of September, I wouldn't have believed it. Shields are still up!
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Quoting dayton:
I'm just checking in here...without going back and reading old posts, could someone answer a couple of questions for me?
~ is "Nicole" suppose to be a hurricane? From little I'm reading, it sounds like it may stay as a TS when/if it hits Florida.
~ is it still the Tampa/St. Pete area as potential landfall?
~ has StormW been on here? I thought that was his area...so figured he would posting about this.
~ am I reading correctly...more for Florida after Nicole in the next few days?

Thank you all for all the information you provide. Much appreciated!!!


~Possibly
~No
~Banned
~yes
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Quoting kshipre1:
so, it looks like the threat for a tropical storm or hurricane has decreased? Looks like just a rain event?


No?

The threat has increased
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so, it looks like the threat for a tropical storm or hurricane has decreased? Looks like just a rain event?
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I'm just checking in here...without going back and reading old posts, could someone answer a couple of questions for me?
~ is "Nicole" suppose to be a hurricane? From little I'm reading, it sounds like it may stay as a TS when/if it hits Florida.
~ is it still the Tampa/St. Pete area as potential landfall?
~ has StormW been on here? I thought that was his area...so figured he would posting about this.
~ am I reading correctly...more for Florida after Nicole in the next few days?

Thank you all for all the information you provide. Much appreciated!!!
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Quoting hurricaneben:
I checked the TWC forecast for my area. Heavy T-Storms on Wed. with 25-35 MPH winds.


OK but where are you
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Quoting WxLogic:



Currently the Mid to Upper level low over MS/AL should starting cutting off in the next 12 to 24 hours. This will allow it to meander across the a region encompassing MS/AL/GA. The associated "cold" front which associated air mass has modified quite a bit should stall across the NFL area. Don't expect it to clear through the state completely and taking all the moisture away for the time being, but in my opinion a line from KFMY to KJAX should be a good divisor of the Wet pattern to the E and drier to the W.

Of course all this will be dependent on the strength and position of the cuff off low as a further W position will favor a wetter pattern for the FL Peninsula and N across the E CONUS and a more E position will favor E FL Peninsula and most of the wet pattern staying offshore up to the E CONUS Coast.


Danke!
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Lisa generating some convection this morning:



Julia still trying to get attention from the NHC:



Pre-96L getting its act together:

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Thanks Dr and Good Morning. First cold front of the season passing through Tallahassee this am....Welcome rain for North Florida and weather up here should be real nice for the next several "Fall" days....Have to see how other parts of Florida fare in terms of rain over the next week or so.
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Squirrel activity has picked up across PB County this morning. I watched 2 squirrels build an octogan out of palm fronds. I thought it might be a coincidence until they put on some padded gloves.

Seriously though, looks like I can shut the sprinklers off and give them a nice, extended rest! ;-)
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Off the coast of Africa:

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21. afj3
Quoting medic2luv:
I'm not a doom caster by any means, but I am wondering, is there a potential for any type of rapid formation/intensification possible with this "disturbance"?

That was my question. I wanted to see that answered....
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
Quoting TampaTom:
Are there any forecasts for the cold front entering Florida?

So far, I've seen on the NWS Ruskin site that they are expecting it to advance to a line running from say Fort Myers up to Cocoa Beach...

Any idea how strong it will stay, will there be a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it? Needless to say, this will have a major impact on the path any proto-Nichole takes to the north...



Currently the Mid to Upper level low over MS/AL should starting cutting off in the next 12 to 24 hours. This will allow it to meander across the a region encompassing MS/AL/GA. The associated "cold" front which associated air mass has modified quite a bit should stall across the NFL area. Don't expect it to clear through the state completely and taking all the moisture away for the time being, but in my opinion a line from KFMY to KJAX should be a good divisor of the Wet pattern to the E and drier to the W.

Of course all this will be dependent on the strength and position of the cuff off low as a further W position will favor a wetter pattern for the FL Peninsula and N across the E CONUS and a more E position will favor E FL Peninsula and most of the wet pattern staying offshore up to the E CONUS Coast.
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Thx Doc...
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Quoting medic2luv:
I'm not a doom caster by any means, but I am wondering, is there a potential for any type of rapid formation/intensification possible with this "disturbance"?


If we get a Tropical System (TD, TS, etc) to form while in the same general area, yeah.
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Well crap....of course the Caribbean will have activity next week - I'll be on a cruise - Ft Lauderdale/Key West/Grand Cayman/Jamaica.

So much for those ports :(
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Look at 34W 11N

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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