Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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hey taco,


We all enjoy different things and I have been fascinated we our atmosphere from the first days of my youth. Anything that can make the hair on the back of your neck stand up, you should take notice!!!! ;-)
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Quoting Bordonaro:

The link to his blog is in the upper reight hand corner of the Hurricane Hollow page
Link
thany. why did he exit this blog. he knows his stuff. must of had a beef with jeff???
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Well THAT post wont stay up on the blog long, lol.
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Quoting tacoman:
say it ain't so bordonaro recon is going down to investigate a blob which will never amount to anything....loves to waste tax dollars..


I don't believe that would be a waste if they get valuable data, in case something does get going. Remember the Caribbean has a lot of heat potential there and south florida residents should be well informed.

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if the remains of mathew were over water it would not take it long to recover seems stationary
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4731
Good morning peeps,

Very interesting reading from the DOC....

From what I can see this morning, looks like south florida could be in for this next event. Only could see the first two visibles of the area off yucatan..... looks to have a low level spin already... Infrared confirms potential as well.... Later today is going to get real interesting. Would be nice if this area (NICOLE) could wait till Friday when im off.... Prob not.... I got the camcorder ready!
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hopefully recon goes in to see whats going on down there, even if there is no LLC we can get some good info
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
202. Kearn
oh wow major report-fest on bottom of page 3
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Quoting 10Speed:
Well, I note that many mid and south Florida entities are dropping the rain projections for the next week back down to 40 to 50 percent. I kind of agree with that. I think most of the Caribbean mess will not lift that far north. It's just not setting up right for that. JMO


You should do some more investigation, or any at all.

From this mornings MIAMI NWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
920 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-281000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
920 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
COASTS TONIGHT. LIGHTNING STRIKES, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, THERE IS AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AT LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.

THERE IS A MINIMAL RISK OF A TORNADO FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting IKE:


It's over for at least the next 10-14 days. By then the waters will have cooled off up here and it will be approaching the middle of October. Major threat along the northern GOM is diminishing.


The threat to the northern GOM is diminishing, indeed...but it's in no way over. Below is a chart showing every post-September hurricane or tropical storm to strike the northern GOM in the past 150 years or so. As you can see, while there hasn't been nearly as much action in those three months as there has been prior to October first, there's still lots that can happen.

FWIW, red lines represent hurricane tracks, dark red represents major hurricanes, and yellow represents tropical storms.

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
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199. afj3
Quoting jeffs713:

Was that before or after you drank most of a 12-pack?

lol!
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Quoting afj3:

I saw squirrels climbing a tree with batteries, bottled water and beer...

Was that before or after you drank most of a 12-pack?
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Quoting Dakster:


Yes, more squirrels.


LOL, my squirrels have been very "active" as well this week.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Flood, Hey, glad to see ya,so what you think about this monsoonal thingy everyone talking about?
or MD2020 or it's called MADDOG2020. LOL
sheri


I don't know; I've never really seen any connection between monsoonal lows and MD2020...LOL
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I saw some squirrels mating yesterday. I don't know if that mean anything.


Yes, more squirrels.
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Ex Julia is getting ready to close on Bermuda from the SW,not big deal but interesting, nevertheless...the little feature at 35W 12N, isn't looking impressive today, let see what happens..
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181. 7544
2 nice blobs who will it be

blob one to the north

or blob 2 to the south

will they become one stay tuned the n name is waiting
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Morning All.

Lets hope they remain weak and disorganized and it ends up being a crappy rainy couple weeks for SFL.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting barotropic:


As I mentioned early this morning the best view of what is developing is via the shortwave. A low level broad circulation is becoming more pronounced with time at 19.0N and 86W. Go here Link and speed up loop and zoom in.
Thanks for the link. Yes I can see if starting to circulate. Our weatherman Allen Archer said it would have several centers of circulation. I don't see that, but Allen is usually dead on with any weather in our area.
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176. IKE
Quoting tacoman:
ike you guys have nothing to worry about that cool front will protest you...it looks like hurricanr season is over for the GOM....another front sched to come down friday..


It's over for at least the next 10-14 days. By then the waters will have cooled off up here and it will be approaching the middle of October. Major threat along the northern GOM is diminishing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
175. 7544
96l 97l soon ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
It's time for me to up the probability of a TD out of the Caribbean to 80% from 50% yesterday.

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Quoting 10Speed:
Well, I note that many mid and south Florida entities are dropping the rain projections for the next week back down to 40 to 50 percent. I kind of agree with that. I think most of the Caribbean mess will not lift that far north. It's just not setting up right for that. JMO


I kinda dont agree with that. Whether or not something tropical develops, either way the stalled front provides a train for moisture from the caribbean. This should remain for some time.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Quoting StormChaser81:


People shouldn't waste blog space for messages like this. =)


Would not consider it if there was any storm systems active.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Umm...I think' its old. It is dated September 14
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Should be nice tommorow afternoon if the wind dies down and Fall fishing should start picking up as more fronts come through........Gonna take the afternoon off tommorow and try some fishing for Reds.......:)


Oh it'll be nice by this afternoon. They have us dropping into the 60's tonight. Windows will be OPEN, finally!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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