Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 315 - 265

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

313. Ookla
Quoting RotorYacht:
Not a MET but I bet the one to the East will take the prize and consume the other for lunch. Just a thought.


I think I saw a projection posted here Friday that showed two lows combining and reaching Florida as a large, but weak storm. I don't remember the link, but it was interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taco look at the visible loop of that area, the more pics come up the more you see low level circulation.... There low level clouds coming into the thunderstorm complex from all directions and there is a strong feeder line coming from the south early this morning.... If you take your time and slow the loops down, you can see this.... As always, things could change but right now its getting its act together.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Just asking, how do you know RECON is on the way?
According to the NHC page it's set for 18z (2pm Eastern Time).
Thanks.


They we're scheduled for take-off at 10:30 but, as NRT posted, there is no data yet. I didn't see it canceled though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
307. Jax82
Muunnday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
there is nothing out there and nothing "developing". can't you just admit defeat? florida is in the clear. we are used to rain, thank you very much. in fact there probably won't be another hurricane this year and def. not more than a cat 1. talk about a busted forecast. keep trying.


You are too funny. Just wait.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Don't think this afternoon's recon is flying. They were scheduled for takeoff at 10:30AM EDT and there has been no data posted....yet. Now as soon as I post this data should start.....



Always happens that way for me, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Don't think this afternoon's recon is flying. They were scheduled for takeoff at 10:30AM EDT and there has been no data posted....yet. Now as soon as I post this data should start.....


Jeje... I would have expected for them to update the plan a bit sooner if they weren't flying today... but then again.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Not a MET but I bet the one to the East will take the prize and consume the other for lunch. Just a thought.

Quoting 7544:
2 nice blobs who will it be

blob one to the north

or blob 2 to the south

will they become one stay tuned the n name is waiting
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


May not see an invest out of this one. IMO, recon is on the way to see if a depression has formed.


Just asking, how do you know RECON is on the way?
According to the NHC page it's set for 18z (2pm Eastern Time).
Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So.. King what was your name back in the day? If its a secret, email me....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't think this afternoon's recon is flying. They were scheduled for takeoff at 10:30AM EDT and there has been no data posted....yet. Now as soon as I post this data should start.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
295. 7544
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


May not see an invest out of this one. IMO, recon is on the way to see if a depression has formed.


agree looks like on now hmmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Quoting 7544:
make it a invest already scehhhh


May not see an invest out of this one. IMO, recon is on the way to see if a depression has formed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The one SW of Cuba.


OK I see thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
My guess would be TD at 11.


You can't collect on your own ref. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I'm going with 50% for the 2 pm TWO.


But that really depends on what RECON finds. So maybe yes maybe no.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I do believe that the miami area is going to get this if it does develop. We need the rain up here in central florida, but it doesnt look like thats going to happen. Really too close to call.... And it could miss the state all together....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Which blob would be 96L/Nicole?
The one at 20N 85W or, the one to the SE of that?


The one SW of Cuba.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
286. 7544
make it a invest already scehhhh
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
I'm going with 50% for the 2 pm TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


We should see % going up soon.


Agree there, the area is organizing at rather fresh pace.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
I believe we will have a depression by 5pm in that area, if not sooner.... time will tell
My guess would be TD at 11.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

Threat of levee failure prompts evacuations along Wisconsin River

Authorities in Portage, Wisconsin, worked Sunday to evacuate residents as a levee along the Wisconsin River approached imminent failure after heavy rainfall soaked the Midwest last week.

An alert sent out by Columbia County Emergency Management on Sunday urged residents near Blackhawk Park to evacuate immediately ahead of the flooding, which is expected to wash out a main road leading to about 150 residences.

"Emergency vehicles including police, fire and EMS will not be able to reach residents," the statement said.


Good Morning Pat! This is the 3rd time this year that this area has flooded, but this is the first time in many years that the water has gotten this high. The latest I've heard this morning was that the levee (actually a dike) was barely holding. I live about 2 miles from the Wisconsin River and about 20 miles (by river) south of the evacuation area. It is definetly out of it's banks around the Sauk Prarie area with lowland/farm field flooding! Kids were swimming in a parking lot last night. Robyn
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Which blob would be 96L/Nicole?
The one at 20N 85W or, the one to the SE of that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I believe we will have a depression by 5pm in that area, if not sooner.... time will tell
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recent 12Z surface map shows new low south of Cuba




We should see % going up soon.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting barotropic:


Recons on its way, you should go. Maybe you could hold on to the dropsonde while its falling so you could relay the info to the blog.

Agreed!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
i have watch the last three computer runs and it showes the energy with the systems in the nw carb are located more to the east with each run.if this comes to pass then most of the energy rainfall winds will be to the east of se florida when the main systems pass. this is a good sign for them. has everone noticed the same thing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
850 mb vorticity strengthening since coupla hours ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recent 12Z surface map shows new low south of Cuba


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That could be true but this is over 88 degree water with no shear at the moment.... Matthew is still over land....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its very close to 85 long and 20 lat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Surely see the atmosphere starting to wrap up.

RAMSDIS FLOATER

60% Depression / 40% Nicole, IMO at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 315 - 265

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.