Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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HOPE THIS WORKS
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HPC 5 day totals

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Quoting RufusBaker:
Al thoe models have the systems going under FL and missing the state.. looks like FL is safe
I wouldn't trust any of the models at this point. Usually they are always wrong, to some degree.
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good afternoon Levi. quick question for you. since the trough is diving down the SE, is the reason the west coast of florida will not see much action because of the trough pulling the system ENE?

crazy question but any chance of potential Nicole to take a straight northward jog and intensify in the warm gulf waters? thanks and nice tropical update. will be watching careful next week for possible hurricane otto.
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Back later.

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, September 27th, with Video
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My local mets are saying tomorrow for RECON
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Real danger from these storms is all the rain falling now. We are getting soaked here in eastern NC today after weeks with no rain. All this precip is going to soften up the ground before the winds of these storms comes throw taking out the trees....
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Wow the western side of the country has huge counties compared to the east
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554. myway
Quoting RufusBaker:
Al thoe models have the systems going under FL and missing the state.. looks like FL is safe


Works for me
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recon text from yesterday said the first recon mission was today

recon text from today did not cancel that flight as far as I can tell


recon should be going out today
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Now... my question would be, if RECON is going today... is that 1800Z time the time the flight leaves, or the time the flight is due into the storm?
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I see no reason why they shouldnt go out today. But I havent seen anything since yesterday that said otherwise

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Quoting PRweathercenter:
Good day to all!! Blog Update for residents or visitors to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
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I will be back later.....
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GFS ensemble precipitation mean for the next 5 days shows the corridor of rain up the eastern seaboard, illustrating the track of what should be Nicole.

A point here in predicting the storm's track using a model precipitation total is to remember that this storm is likely to be lopsided with most of the activity focused east of the center. When drawing the track line, start on the left side of the precipitation swath, and then go back to the middle from the Carolinas northward as baroclinic forcing provides rain to the west of the storm center as well from that point on.

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Quoting leo305:
TWC says recon is going today


Idk... TWC has been wrong before
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TWC just said that they are sending recon TODAY
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543. 7544
recon 2pm today right ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Today is 9-27-10
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


This was issued yesterday... for today


and from what I see todays did not cancel anything
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Al thoe models have the systems going under FL and missing the state.. looks like FL is safe
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TWC says recon is going today
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
My bad.
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Thats amazing to me..... Plans do change...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261635 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1235 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF



This was issued yesterday... for today
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Hurricane OTTO rides up the west coast of FL? We will see the GFS has been very persistant in showing this second system.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_174.shtml


Jeff, what happened to 'Nicole'?
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Quoting Levi32:


All in the time-frame of late September and early October. We haven't hit the end of the month yet and we're already talking about one storm that is almost guaranteed. Don't expect nothing else to threaten before the season ends.


It's what he does, Levi. It's what he does.
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532. IKE
Quoting rossclick:


actually... doesnt that say they are going out tomorrow?


Yes.

Are they going out today?
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good afternoon Jeff,

do any other models besides this 12Z GFS run show the same thing?
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ooooppppppsssss.... it is tomorrow, dang it.....
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Quoting weatherboyfsu:



Hey Taco, can you read this? Let me know, I will break it down for you.... ;-)


actually... doesnt that say they are going out tomorrow?
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 261635 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1235 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Quoting presslord:
nash...yesterday you were on here complaining about lack of rain here...please take it back...


Sorry man. We needed it, but it can stop now.
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Quoting masonsnana:
What is wrong with some of you?? Levi is much respected in here. Get a grip or go elsewhere!

I have seen many people thank him and only one person (that showed up) give him a hard time.
If your in a position of leadership, expect to have your naysayers. Levi knows and understands how the majority of us feel I'm sure.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 29/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06
AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 28/1200Z.


This is saying that RECON will fly in to the system tomorrow, near 20.0N 85.0W
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Quoting masonsnana:
What is wrong with some of you?? Levi is much respected in here. Get a grip or go elsewhere!


Opinions, if people cant take some insights into there opinions, then that's sad.


I mean your putting opinions on the internet.

If you dont want insight into your idea, dont post it.
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Joe Bastardi made a good point yesterday about the CFS. Notice how it cools the SSTs significantly in the NW Caribbean by the time December rolls around. The only possible way that could happen is from tropical cyclones, so the climate model is showing the enhanced activity here at the tail-end of the season in the SW Atlantic Basin.

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Notice the location.... 20 north and 85 west


Hmmmm.... I think thats where I have been talking to you about the past couple of hours......
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Quoting StormChaser81:



I dont see nothing about them leaving anywhere


that is because the 1st recon flight is tomorrow, not today
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Where did you find the information? I have not found anything on the RECON yet.



I dont see nothing about them leaving anywhere
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thanks
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Quoting IKE:


GFS has been showing major canes...in the long-range...for the last 2-3 weeks. It hasn't happened.
I must quote tom cruise .."show me the money"
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 29/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06
AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 28/1200Z.



Hey Taco, can you read this? Let me know, I will break it down for you.... ;-)
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12z GFS

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.