Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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765. xcool


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764. Jax82
Plenty of fuel to tap into.

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Quoting Drakoen:
The Caribbean system is really in a sweet spot to develop. If you take a look at the water vapor imagery, you can see an upper level trough invading the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level low east of the Bahamas, this synoptic set up favors an upper level ridge in the Caribbean coupled with MJO forcing as a net balance between the two subsident upper level features. In addition to favor upper level conditions, the TCHP underneath 96L is running past 100kJcm-2 which is extremely favorable for intensification.
are yougiving that area inv 96l or has the navy site done that or u are expecting that inv to go there soon?
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Can't type and not funny. Oh well back to my corner, I was just commenting on the accuracy of the long range models.


That wouldn't take long.
;-)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting islander101010:
about a hr ago it was reported a research plane could not find a center



A center, or a surface-level circulation?
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Can't type and not funny. Oh well back to my corner, I was just commenting on the accuracy of the long range models.
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The Caribbean system is really in a sweet spot to develop. If you take a look at the water vapor imagery, you can see an upper level trough invading the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level low east of the Bahamas, this synoptic set up favors an upper level ridge in the Caribbean coupled with MJO forcing as a net balance between the two subsident upper level features. In addition to favor upper level conditions, the TCHP underneath 96L is running past 100kJcm-2 which is extremely favorable for intensification.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
1)hello this is GFS long range forecasting JVF speaking, how may I help you?
2) Hello this is CMC long range forecasting Stormtop speaking, how may I help you?
3) Hello this is Ridges long range forecasting,Baak,Baak,Baak oh poop!J/K


Wow, very funny joke, je je, but for my info. please just tell me when I need to laugh...
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Preasure in Ruskin Fl. is 1009 Down from 1013 12 hours ago
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Im glad they finally mention my friend "ex- Julia" she has been pulsating on an off dealing with shear...
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


The only part of the state that is in drought or very dry condition is the panhandle, isn't it? I thought the rest of the state was green on the map.


East-Central is as well... our KBDI is in the 550-600 range here in Brevard County. Melbourne (our official site is -9.48" on the year.
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Quoting bird72:


yep, but I insist is a TD already.
about a hr ago it was reported a research plane could not find a center
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Quoting WxLogic:
Now we should be seeing some model runs on 96L soon.
and where is 96l exactly?
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Quoting reedzone:


Ehh It's been dry here on the East Coast, some rains but not enough to stop the drought.


Ah, OK. Forgot - nobody seems to count the panhandle as part of the state unless they're courting our vote.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
15Z 850MB:



500MB:



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Official 96L?? Yippee. Bloggers delight! Now everyone can speculate in earnest about an official blob! Can't wait to read all the opinions while I wait for the monsoons! LOL
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Quoting Vince2005:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009271819
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962010
AL, 96, 2010092618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092706, , BEST, 0, 180N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


About time!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
we finally have 96L


yep, but I insist is a TD already.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


a lil more than 4 inches



Lucky, we are stuck in the bubble, even saw a few peeks of sunshine, and oh yeah, its downright nasty outside, upping our chances a bit for seeing severe weather.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
If the future Nicole turns out to be a system that is heavily tilted with all of the precip on the right side we won't get a drop of rain here in Tampa.


As per usual in Tampa. Just like with Fay. The whole fraggin state got pummeled with rain. Tampa? Not one drop. I'm telling ya... There is a shield over Tampa. Has been for umpteen years.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I highly doubt anyone could have predicted what Fay did to the state of Florida in 2008

you just never know

Took me forever to dry out and had to replace my roof to boot!!!
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


The only part of the state that is in drought or very dry condition is the panhandle, isn't it? I thought the rest of the state was green on the map.


Ehh It's been dry here on the East Coast, some rains but not enough to stop the drought.
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735. ITCZ
Hi all forgive my ignorance, but I see alot of references to south and central FL receviing the tropical soup and possibly nicole/otto- does that mean us here in Tallytown can expect minimal rain? i thought at one point it looked like the whole state would be a rainblob on the map.

I appreciate the info-am recuperating from surgery and would prefer to NOT go in on Thursday and if I am gonna slip n slide walking in the parking lot.....

PS to my eastside friends-the storm that came through here this morning was still pretty impressive! But i am not complaining, the "cool" humidity is divine here on my back porch. :)
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Good afternoon all

Just a quick post for now. I just left home on the South coast of Grand Cayman and the sea condition there is quite rough with a stiff 20 mph sustained wind out of the South.

The pressure was 1005.8 mbs and falling.

There appears to be a competition between two different areas of convection to become the area of lowest pressure and, in due course, the center of a potential cyclone. The area near Cozumel did have the lowest pressure in the NW caribbean for some time as well as a "spin" that was evident in the visible loops.

I do believe though that the area between Jamaica and Grand Cayman could take over as convection is greater there and quite persistent coupled with the impressive pressure fall we are now seeing in Grand Cayman.

Until one of these areas becomes dominant very little is going to happen other than rain. So far we have had very little today with only high cloud around.

The ASCAT pass for 1600 UTC this morning does not show any surface low near Cozumel so the fight continues to see where the surface feature develops.



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15790
Now we should be seeing some model runs on 96L soon.
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Quoting reedzone:
Nicole is going to be a BLESSING for Florida as it plugs the rest of the drought!


The only part of the state that is in drought or very dry condition is the panhandle, isn't it? I thought the rest of the state was green on the map.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Jeje... posted
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Quoting reedzone:
Nicole is going to be a BLESSING for Florida as it plugs the rest of the drought!


With La Nina getting stronger, we may need as much as we can get - within reason...
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009271819
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962010
AL, 96, 2010092618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092706, , BEST, 0, 180N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Wonder what's taking the Navy so long, this has all the qualifications for Invest 96L. The convection and structure continue to organize well. I'm thinking a TD by tomorrow.
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we finally have 96L
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Notice that the upper level low centered over kentucky and Tennessee is now moving to the NNE. The trof shouldn't make it much further that it is now...

That's why I'm wondering if the latest gfs 18z and the cmc are now taking some of the forecast storms a tad back toward the left (west). Compare the last several runs and you'll see what I mean. Especially, the gfs', 2nd storm; coming up the west cost of FL. Of course, no storms have actually formed, but . . .
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Based on that same analysis that even if a CAT 4 or 5 were barring down on a land location, it would not make landfall or have any impacts

Why? because no storms ever impact any area at any time. And anyone who thinks they do are hyping things


Pegging the satire meter there.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Yo Yooper... can I use that for my next blog? :-D


That would be nice. Thanks!
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That's in the Caribbean is a TD already.
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Notice that the upper level low centered over kentucky and Tennessee is now moving to the NNE. The trof shouldn't make much further East.
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Quoting reedzone:


Too bad the admin. removed that comment, that's a darn shame (chuckle)


Quoting Hurricanes101:


admin removes that comment and yet lets a certain troll bash people again and again without any sort of action

Its pathetic


Thank you.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


admin removes that comment and yet lets a certain troll bash people again and again without any sort of action

Its pathetic


That's because most of us have said troll on ignore so we don't see the comments to report it with the !.

Admin looks based on reports...
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Quoting hydrus:
The NCEP model has the third storm stalling for days....Link


yea anyotherliestotell should follow the advice of his own handle lol
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Nicole is going to be a BLESSING for Florida as it plugs the rest of the drought!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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