Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 865 - 815

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Where is 94L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96l is that little area next to cozumel or the big one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
862. unf97
Quoting Patrap:
187
fxus62 kjax 271854
afdjax


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
255 PM EDT Monday Sep 27 2010


..isolated strong/severe storms rest of the afternoon and early
evening...


Short term...cold front will push through the area tonight followed
by a much drier and somewhat cooler airmass. Anticipate scattered
convection tonight before most of the activity moves offshore. Some
strong storms will be possible over the eastern zones in the early
evening. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s inland southeast Georgia to middle
to upper 60s NE Florida. Tuesday...frontal boundary will be near southeast zones
with 50-60% probability of precipitation planned for southeast zones and only 10-20% inland
sections northwest. Models are also insistent on surface low developing near
Cuba on Tuesday and moving northward Wednesday. Secondary low formation looks
possible Wednesday night time frame offshore of NE Florida coast. Best focus
for shower and thunderstorms on Wednesday will be along coastal areas and
offshore. Meanwhile...middle and upper level pattern will feature a
trough from eastern U.S. Southward into S Georgia and the NE Gomex. This will
provide upper level divergence pattern right along the coast and
offshore in the coastal waters...providing support for isolated to
scattered showers and storms mainly over the eastern zones. Some locally heavy
rain is possible Wednesday. By Thursday...middle and upper level trough will
be over the County Warning Area with surface low east of the area and north to northwest winds.
Highest moisture and lift will be focused east of the area with probability of precipitation
decreasing to 20-30% along the coast. Temperatures will continue a slow
decreasing trend over the next few days under the influence of northwest
flow.


Long term....(fri-mon).
Models are in fairly good agreement with large scale pattern showing
a middle and upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The trough may deepen
during the weekend as shown by the European model (ecmwf) and GFS and then shift a
bit eastward by sun-Mon. At surface...fairly strong high pressure
will build southward over the central U.S. While lingering frontal
boundary will be located over the western Atlantic down toward the central
and northern Bahamas to the southern Florida or the Florida Straits. What this will
result in is relatively low rain chances over southeast Georgia and a chance of
showers and storms over NE Florida. Cloudy skies and heavy rainfall will
be possible along the NE Florida coast. Temperatures will range from the 60s
inland to low/middle 70s coast with highs in the 80s. Brzy/windy
conditions expected into the weekend as yet another low pressure
system may ride up along the front.


&&


Just as I responded to someone asking my thoughts about what could happen here in Jax, Patrap you just posted the AFD from the NWS in my area. LOL. That was excellent timing. Thanks for posting that. That was something I was waiting for to come out. They are also banking on the 96L/Nicole and the major effects to just miss this area to the east. But, like I said in my post just below that any shifts of the future track to the left and the Jax area definitely will be more under the gun for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lickitysplit:
Whoa! Looks like we have nichole!


Overzealous much?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BAMS says Bermuda needs to turn off the Hurricane magnet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
13-7-5 ... Should go to 14 by either tomorrow or Wednesday :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Julia's remnants back again? LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lickitysplit:
Whoa! Looks like we have nichole!


no we have 96L

I have issues with posts like these, people who lurk may take them seriously and think we have a named storm, when we do not
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure falling again...
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Key West, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Thanks Patrap, I still haven't figured out how to post the image to the blog. The weather here is Key West is sunny and clear with winds around 15-20 MPH. If I didn't know about this storm coming I wouldn't suspect it from looking outside.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PR NWS :


BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM
THE EAST...INDUCING A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

Eastern Carib will also get active folks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
yup EL Nino looks like it is forming


SEP 20th





SEP 23rd



and today SEP 27



We are a very long way away from El Nino, I doubt its forming
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96l is that little area next to cozumel??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whoa! Looks like we have nichole!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


again why does it matter?


Why does it matter to you, wasn't even referring to you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


I believe he did for a short period of time. That helped him to stay together this well. Did you look at the Floater 1 loop how well he is still together......I CAN'T BELIEVE IT! Its the stronger feature even on land.


I wonder if the fact that his remmants stayed so well intact would help or hinder development in the NW Caribbean

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
847. xcool


cab
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yup EL Nino looks like it is forming


SEP 20th





SEP 23rd



and today SEP 27

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


did he ever make it to the BOC? lol


I believe he did for a short period of time. That helped him to stay together this well. Did you look at the Floater 1 loop how well he is still together......I CAN'T BELIEVE IT! Its the stronger feature even on land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I didn't say anything, just posted an image. I have no idea where 96L has been initialized.


Ok... just curious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LA Nino has peak i think we may have a EL Nino forming here





this week #

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 -1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.8ºC
Niño1+2 -1.3ºC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
187
fxus62 kjax 271854
afdjax


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
255 PM EDT Monday Sep 27 2010


..isolated strong/severe storms rest of the afternoon and early
evening...


Short term...cold front will push through the area tonight followed
by a much drier and somewhat cooler airmass. Anticipate scattered
convection tonight before most of the activity moves offshore. Some
strong storms will be possible over the eastern zones in the early
evening. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s inland southeast Georgia to middle
to upper 60s NE Florida. Tuesday...frontal boundary will be near southeast zones
with 50-60% probability of precipitation planned for southeast zones and only 10-20% inland
sections northwest. Models are also insistent on surface low developing near
Cuba on Tuesday and moving northward Wednesday. Secondary low formation looks
possible Wednesday night time frame offshore of NE Florida coast. Best focus
for shower and thunderstorms on Wednesday will be along coastal areas and
offshore. Meanwhile...middle and upper level pattern will feature a
trough from eastern U.S. Southward into S Georgia and the NE Gomex. This will
provide upper level divergence pattern right along the coast and
offshore in the coastal waters...providing support for isolated to
scattered showers and storms mainly over the eastern zones. Some locally heavy
rain is possible Wednesday. By Thursday...middle and upper level trough will
be over the County Warning Area with surface low east of the area and north to northwest winds.
Highest moisture and lift will be focused east of the area with probability of precipitation
decreasing to 20-30% along the coast. Temperatures will continue a slow
decreasing trend over the next few days under the influence of northwest
flow.


Long term....(fri-mon).
Models are in fairly good agreement with large scale pattern showing
a middle and upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The trough may deepen
during the weekend as shown by the European model (ecmwf) and GFS and then shift a
bit eastward by sun-Mon. At surface...fairly strong high pressure
will build southward over the central U.S. While lingering frontal
boundary will be located over the western Atlantic down toward the central
and northern Bahamas to the southern Florida or the Florida Straits. What this will
result in is relatively low rain chances over southeast Georgia and a chance of
showers and storms over NE Florida. Cloudy skies and heavy rainfall will
be possible along the NE Florida coast. Temperatures will range from the 60s
inland to low/middle 70s coast with highs in the 80s. Brzy/windy
conditions expected into the weekend as yet another low pressure
system may ride up along the front.


&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kimoskee:
Very wet here in Jamaica.

I had a downpour early this morning (3am) that sounded like a monsoon.

But I'll take the rain any day over a drought. When I remember having to buy water from a truck to fill my tank... let it rain.


True, true, maybe the Hermitage Dam and the Mona Reservoir have not seen water like this in a long time. Still we have to worry about the possible damage due to flooding...what with this fragile economy of ours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEXRAD Radar
Key West, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smartinwx:


Just a guess, I'm probably wrong.


again why does it matter?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
838. unf97
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
unf97,what do u think that jacksonville,florida could get from future nicole?


Well, right now based on the current model runs it looks like the heavy effects will be felt mainly in Central and South Florida and most of the heaviest rain just missing NE Florida off the coast. HOWEVER, I must emphasize that any shift of the track 50-100 miles to the left would put the greater Jax metro area right in the midst of where the heaviest rains would track. We just have to wait and see how the intensity and track of 96L/future Nicole will evolve the next couple of days. One thing is for certain and that is a huge rain threat is coming for a good part of the peninsula later this week, as well as the possiblity of tornadoes up and down the peninsula as is the case with landfalling tropical cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Quantitative Precipitation Outlook



myrtle beach bullseye, 10" is ton of rain we have already had close to 3" of it today, at least with sandy soil we can handle most of it ok, although over rivers may flood
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
south florida does not "flood" other than localized street flooding. it's limestone terrain. we get inches of rain many times over a year in a day or so. no big deal really.
I would have to somewhat disagree there. Some parts of South Florida does flood quite a bit. Do you remember Irene in '99 and that no-named storm in 2000? There was flooding all over the place and I'm not talking a few inches. Water went over hoods of cars up to about 3 feet deep. Granted most of this was from backed up drainage and I think Miami Dade County has fixed most of the areas by now, but I am sure there will be future flooding from a tropical system, especially one that meanders around for some time. Do not compare the flooding of a thunderstorm to these tropical systems, they are completely different. (I mean no disrespect here, but I am only going by what I have experienced)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
OLD MATTHEW IS now making its loop back also.....WOW!


did he ever make it to the BOC? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI


Presslord is getting really wet today..as per our Phone Conversation.






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18 GMT 09/27/10 19.0N 86.0W 25 1003 Invest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smartinwx:


I bet you live in Florida?


Who cares?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smartinwx:


I bet you live in Florida?


And this would matter... why?

Anyway, welcome to the blog and congrats on your first comment. We'll just put a red circle around it... Just so others don't miss it, of course. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OLD MATTHEW IS now making its loop back also.....WOW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Matthew remnants drift south or north it should bomb right back up to cat 1. It's so organized over land with a well defined LLC and great outflow on all sides. I can't believe NHC doesn't even mention this possibility!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOES Caribbean and GOM Animated Viewer,,Large
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smartinwx:


I bet you live in Florida?


does it matter where he lives?, its not a secret that Florida could get impacts from this system

NHC has put Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas on alert later this week
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have the Key West radar up and this morning the cells were moving from the East, now from the south. Definitely heading this way!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
057

WHXX01 KWBC 271823

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1823 UTC MON SEP 27 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100927 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100927 1800 100928 0600 100928 1800 100929 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.0N 86.0W 19.6N 86.0W 19.3N 86.0W 18.7N 84.9W

BAMD 19.0N 86.0W 19.4N 85.8W 19.2N 85.4W 19.7N 84.1W

BAMM 19.0N 86.0W 19.5N 85.9W 19.2N 85.8W 18.8N 84.7W

LBAR 19.0N 86.0W 19.8N 85.7W 20.9N 85.8W 22.6N 85.8W

SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS

DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100929 1800 100930 1800 101001 1800 101002 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.7N 82.5W 24.4N 78.0W 28.4N 75.7W 30.9N 75.3W

BAMD 21.4N 82.6W 26.4N 79.0W 30.6N 74.7W 34.2N 66.4W

BAMM 19.8N 82.6W 24.2N 78.7W 27.5N 76.0W 30.4N 74.4W

LBAR 25.2N 85.7W 31.0N 84.4W 34.8N 78.3W 39.3N 66.2W

SHIP 62KTS 71KTS 76KTS 69KTS

DSHP 62KTS 63KTS 69KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 86.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flsky:

Daytona Beach Shores is tan....
brevard an
Quoting flsky:

Daytona Beach Shores is tan....
brevard county is in a drought also
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


BAMS says no to a USA landfall, not surprised.


So are you thinking of a ukm scenario?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what would be helpful is to look at the cuban radar out of pinar del rio province or Isla la juventude and the radar out of cancun mexico
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


Hope you're not saying 96L is where the deep convection is? Since those that won't be the location where 96L is currently being initialized on.


I didn't say anything, just posted an image. I have no idea where 96L has been initialized.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25986
Quoting winter123:
... if this came to pass of course. It would be ironic and amazing if these three storms formed in the same location.


I think you need to go back and learn the definition of irony.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thaale:
What do people see developing as the main immediate cyclone? The big blob right south of the Caymans, or the littler one juest east of the Yucatan?

I know the models seem to focus more on the latter, but I was was seeking some human input.
It's going to form near the Yucatan... the vorticity is much higher there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ding ding ding, we have achieved Invest 96. That didn't take long. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
815. Jax82
Cuban Radar

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 865 - 815

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.