Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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Quoting Jax82:
If i'm looking at this correctly I dont see a naples to canaveral 100MPH hurricane, i see a storm that may stay off the coast of florida with a lot of convection that would be east of the center. What models are showing differently?

....that position for the center seems off,based of vis sat its close to 19n,85w.....
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Invest96L : NHC-ATCF
27Sep 12pmGMT - - 18.0n85.5w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
27Sep 06pmGMT - - 18.3n84.6w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
28Sep 12amGMT - - 18.7n83.9w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
28Sep 06amGMT - - 19.4n83.3w - - 30knots -- 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
28Sep 12pmGMT - - 20.2n82.8w - - 30knots -- 1001mb - NHC-ATCF
25knots=~28.8mph=46.3km/h __ 30knots=~34.5mph=~55.6km/h

Copy &paste 18.0n85.5w-18.3n84.6w, 18.3n84.6w-18.7n83.9w, 18.7n83.9w-19.4n83.3w, 19.4n83.3w-20.2n82.8w, ctm, hav, pot into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24hours.

ctm hav pot, and NHC's overindulged:
been hallucinating ever-changing (then disappearing) center positions since 12amGMT 26Sep
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2712. nash28
Quoting barotropic:


Actually Nash you skipped the keys and SE Florida which actually get or nearly get hurricane force winds (see HWRF). The Cape escapes with tropical storm force winds with hurricane force winds well offshorel. The GFDL shows same, with more eastward track.


Yeah... Sorry. Busy at work and didn't mean to leave out the initial hits.
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Quoting Jax82:
If i'm looking at this correctly I dont see a naples to canaveral 100MPH hurricane, i see a storm that may stay off the coast of florida with a lot of convection that would be east of the center. What models are showing differently?



+1
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Actually, you look from Hermine in 2004:

Hermine, tropical storm.
Ivan, major - strongest storm of the year
Jeanne, major
Karl, major
Lisa, hurricane
Matthew, tropical storm.
Nicole, subtropical storm.

That's pretty close to this year's names.

What coincidence.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting utilaeastwind:
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W


There is a bouy directly under the large convective mass seen on sat. The current pressure is 1005mb which is about 3mb higher than those readings over and to the west of the caymans (further north). So the center does not appear to be forming under that large covective mass. The winds however under the mass are sustained at at about 27 knts with gusts to 32 knts for several hours now.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
While I completely understand that the news doesn't want to "cry wolf", I still believe that they should throw it out there to give everyone a heads up. They have no problem doing that when a system is 1000+miles away, why not now?

And Yes, seflgamma, I do remember Irene. There was alot of "blaming" going around back then.
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W


Wow, someone from Utila. I was looking at Utila last night on Google Earth. If i'm not mistaken, the island is volcanic. Is there any evidence of ongoing volcanism presently? I have the volcano layer activated but it didn't say past or present activity. How strong were the winds last night?
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2704. Jax82
If i'm looking at this correctly I dont see a naples to canaveral 100MPH hurricane, i see a storm that may stay off the coast of florida with a lot of convection that would be east of the center. What models are showing differently?

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Quoting seflagamma:
Another line of thunderstorms rolling thru my area.. I understand this is because of the stalled front not the invest moisture yet.

2nd mess of heavy rain this morning...

good morning once again everyone.


I have a feeling we could have another Irene on our hands... back in 1999 we had invest Irene and then weak TS Irene no one panic, no one closed schools or work, etc..then Irene became a Cat 1 as it came across the Everglades and caught everyone in Cat 1 winds going home from work and school... bad forcast.. "they say" they put out hurricane warnings 6 hrs in advance...but they did not or schools would have let out and business would have closed.

I was here watching the radar and reading the updates..and there were NO warnings issues at all, nor hurricane watches...
The forcasters totally missed Irene.


Let's hope this is no Irene! (Hope all is well)
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Quoting IceSlater:
I personally believe local news in S. Florida is taking a huge risk by NOT "wishcasting" this disturbance.

Really, it's already too late because they have implanted "lots of heavy rain only" in everyone's head.


I'm watching NBC and the local met is mentioning the possiblity for development. That's all she can do since it's a wait and see game at the moment.
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W
where exactly are you? thats all ocean! are u on a ship?
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i am from Louisiana but now living in central FL and I am just shocked at how nonchalant these weather forecasters are here. When living near the Gulf, one does not let their guard down for one second, esp in the area this low is. I hope it doesn tcome to anything but rain, but you keep one eye on it at all times. The forecasters on the news are writing it off to go off to the east....using models that were run about 6 hours ago lol (sigh)
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Looks like we'll have nicole by noon. Busy season.
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2697. 7544
no shutters for this one but the next one maybe this is a good trail run for whats coming next check it out here

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6693
Quoting lickitysplit:
Now that I've got absolutely everyone on ignore, the comment section is a MUCH nicer place!


Because its quiet?

I mean, it would have to be if you had everyone on your ignore list.

:)
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Funny.

The last Nicole was subtropical as well.

Well, regardless, seems the forecasters think this doesn't have long to live.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting IceSlater:


It doesn't take too long to put up shutters. I'd wait on that... wait and see if the models get confirmed. You'll still have time to prepare as long as you've already got everything.

Personally, I would definitely put up shutters for a Cat 1 or even a strong TS. I don't mess around.

If a storm strengthens hours before landfall, it could be too late to put them up.

So, no, not now... but maybe early tomorrow. Just stay tuned!


Probably right, but putting up shutters in torrential downpours in not very much fun. Should actually be avoided. This probably won't be a heavy wind event, so shutters may be unnecessary. But it all depends on your personal definition of risk. I will not likely do anything unless things change drastically. But then I'd be preparing in sheets of rain. Ugh!
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Quoting superpete:
Morning Kman.Looks like we are in for a wet day?Very heavy downpours last night,just going to check boat LOL


Good morning. Yeah, have to check mine as well but have the bilge pump on a trickle charger just to make sure LOL
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
should we expect a TD Or TRopical Storm Later Today and if So i would Expect Warnings to be issued


Expect TS Nicole later today.
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W


See my post 2657. That is the original position for the low that was being tracked and it is still there. This system is typical of slow monsoonal type development where the so callled center can move around and multiple lows within a large gyre are common. Makes for a very slow pace of development.
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Quoting nash28:
06Z HWRF nails the Cape on 1st hit. 2nd hit whacks Charleston, SC. GFDL has it just to the E of Charleston. Either way, unless the west side is totally void of moisture, we're gettin wet again in a couple of days.


Actually Nash you skipped the keys and SE Florida which actually get or nearly get hurricane force winds (see HWRF). The Cape escapes with tropical storm force winds with hurricane force winds well offshorel. The GFDL shows same, with more eastward track.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
I was here watching the radar and reading the updates..and there were NO warnings issues at all, nor hurricane watches...
The forcasters totally missed Irene.

I remember driving home in that with 4 children down Broward Blvd....scary!
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Now that I've got absolutely everyone on ignore, the comment section is a MUCH nicer place!
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Quoting newportrinative:


Local news are monitoring and it's not a Tropical Storm yet so just watch the news. I would not put up shutters for a tropical storm though.


Thanks :)
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Quoting kmanislander:


There are actually two low centers and the NHC are now tracking the one closest to the deepest convection. If you run this loop you can see the spin at the new position but there is also a stationary low at the old position near 19 N 85.5 W

Check the lat/lon box

Until the system resolves these competing centers development will be slow.
Morning Kman.Looks like we are in for a wet day?Very heavy downpours last night,just going to check boat LOL
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Quoting hulazigzag:
It looks like the ULL associated with the cold front across florida has shot to the north and the front has begun to stall Link



The front will retrograde slightly today.

Morning All.

Seems last nights obs were correct 80% this morning. What is everyone's thoughts on strength in the near term to splash down in the W-ATL?
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
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I personally believe local news in S. Florida is taking a huge risk by NOT "wishcasting" this disturbance.

Really, it's already too late because they have implanted "lots of heavy rain only" in everyone's head.
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Quoting IKE:


From the latest TWO....

"THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW."


How'd I know you were going to post that? :)

I just dont believe it will develop into a subtropical storm.

Now, as it heads up the east coast (If it does), I believe it will slowly transition, but I dont believe it will start subtropical.
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2680. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
777

WHXX01 KWBC 281242

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1242 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100928 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100928 1200 100929 0000 100929 1200 100930 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.2N 82.8W 21.2N 83.0W 22.1N 82.8W 23.6N 81.4W

BAMD 20.2N 82.8W 21.5N 82.5W 23.6N 81.9W 26.6N 81.1W

BAMM 20.2N 82.8W 21.3N 82.9W 22.4N 82.6W 24.3N 81.4W

LBAR 20.2N 82.8W 22.1N 82.4W 25.1N 82.1W 29.4N 81.5W

SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS

DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100930 1200 101001 1200 101002 1200 101003 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 25.9N 79.6W 31.0N 76.7W 33.7N 74.3W 37.2N 68.8W

BAMD 30.1N 80.0W 37.5N 75.5W 45.8N 65.2W 53.7N 44.0W

BAMM 26.9N 79.8W 32.3N 76.7W 36.3N 72.3W 43.6N 59.8W

LBAR 34.3N 80.2W 44.5N 70.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 59KTS 64KTS 54KTS 33KTS

DSHP 49KTS 53KTS 43KTS 23KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 82.8W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 18.7N LONM12 = 83.9W DIRM12 = 48DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 85.5W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 360NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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should we expect a TD Or TRopical Storm Later Today and if So i would Expect Warnings to be issued
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2677. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/96L
MARK
20.23N/82.85W


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Quoting IKE:


May be sub-tropical.
probally right it seems as if its going to be mixed up with a cold front
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New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W
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Quoting AnneBytheSea:


No Kidding, I'm in Deerfield Beach. Should I put shutters up for Tropical Storm? No one on the news has even mentioned preparation....


It doesn't take too long to put up shutters. I'd wait on that... wait and see if the models get confirmed. You'll still have time to prepare as long as you've already got everything.

Personally, I would definitely put up shutters for a Cat 1 or even a strong TS. I don't mess around.

If a storm strengthens hours before landfall, it could be too late to put them up.

So, no, not now... but maybe early tomorrow. Just stay tuned!
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Quoting seflagamma:
Another line of thunderstorms rolling thru my area.. I understand this is because of the stalled front not the invest moisture yet.

2nd mess of heavy rain this morning...

good morning once again everyone.


I have a feeling we could have another Irene on our hands... back in 1999 we had invest Irene and then weak TS Irene no one panic, no one closed schools or work, etc..then Irene became a Cat 1 as it came across the Everglades and caught everyone in Cat 1 winds going home from work and school... back forcast.. "they say" they put out hurricane warnings 6 hrs in advance...but they did not or schools would have let out and business would have closed.

I was here watching the radar and reading the updates..and there were NO warnings issues at all, nor hurricane watches...
The forcasters totally missed Irene.
Same here. IO am still waiting for local news to say something. Rain is coming down so hard now looks like night and not a word about schools closing and the schools here flood in the best of times.
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2672. IKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I doubt that.


From the latest TWO....

"THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
and Irene while had some winds and blew down some trees... we had 2-3 days of flooding in some neighborhoods including mine.
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Quoting AnneBytheSea:


No Kidding, I'm in Deerfield Beach. Should I put shutters up for Tropical Storm? No one on the news has even mentioned preparation....


Local news are monitoring and it's not a Tropical Storm yet so just watch the news. I would not put up shutters for a tropical storm though.
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Quoting IKE:


May be sub-tropical.


I doubt that.
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Another line of thunderstorms rolling thru my area.. I understand this is because of the stalled front not the invest moisture yet.

2nd mess of heavy rain this morning...

good morning once again everyone.


I have a feeling we could have another Irene on our hands... back in 1999 we had invest Irene and then weak TS Irene no one panic, no one closed schools or work, etc..then Irene became a Cat 1 as it came across the Everglades and caught everyone in Cat 1 winds going home from work and school... bad forcast.. "they say" they put out hurricane warnings 6 hrs in advance...but they did not or schools would have let out and business would have closed.

I was here watching the radar and reading the updates..and there were NO warnings issues at all, nor hurricane watches...
The forcasters totally missed Irene.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Left, remnants of Matthew and 96L(soon to be Nicole)
Upper center: Remnants of Julia, near Bermuda
Upper right: Remnants of Lisa
Bottom Right, strong Tropical Wave
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.