Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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Quoting aquak9:
usually they hold off till the last minute...heck even Miami had school buses running the afternoon/evening that K_ came thru.

i wish they WOULD re-examine the priorities.


Palm Beach County, before Charley, didn't cancel school like the other counties around them did. After he veered course, they released us a half-hour early (I was in the 7th grade at the time).
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000
FXUS62 KMLB 271947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...WET AND STORMY MID WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

NOW-TUES...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MORE ACTIVE THAN IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE KICKING
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER. OFF
TO OUR NORTHWEST...FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...CURRENTLY INTO CITRUS...MARION AND SAINT
JOHNS COUNTIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FOCUS ON THE
MENAGERIE OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND BECOMING DOMINANT LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND POINTS NORTH. WITH THE CUT
OFF LOW CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS AL/MS AND THE FAR WEST FL
PANHANDLE...FRONT SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 60% OVER THE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AS PRESENCE
OF FRONT AND SSW FLOW TAPPING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER OVER TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 90 IN THE INTERIOR.

TUES NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH EACH
RUN...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE EASTWARD SOLUTION THAT THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE ACROSS SRN AND CTRL FL AND THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ORIENTATION OF SLP/VORT AND PRECIP FIELDS INDICATE
INCREASING BAROCLINIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE
SFC FRONT/MID LEVEL TROUGH...BECOMING SORT OF "RIGHT-SIDED" SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES NWD. WHETHER THE LOW IS TROPICAL IN NATURE OR NOT...A
WET AND STORMY TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST MODEL...THE GFS THE
FASTEST...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A CURRENT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE
AREA SLOWER SEEMS THE WAY TO GO. HPC PROGS HAVE A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE SLOW SIDE.

LATEST HPC QPF TOTALS SUGGEST AROUND 3.0 INCHES NW TO 6.0 INCHES
SOUTHEAST...WHICH ARE AREAL AVERAGES...AND LOCAL MAXIMA CAN
EASILY EXCEED THOSE AMOUNTS. THE MORE EASTERLY TRACK THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS WOULD KEEP THE EXTREMELY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST... ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
PARALLEL LATE WED NIGHT.


FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME BECOME
GREATER AS TIME GOES ON. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND CONTINUING LACK OF CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW. HAVE INDICATED ENHANCED POPS
THROUGH THURS THEN TRENDED BACK A BIT UNTIL SIGNALS BECOME
CLEARER...BUT KEEPING SCATTERED POPS IN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
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Hmmm...I have seen an awful lot of squirrels lately, including one in the road and in my yard. Perhaps something is up....
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Quoting reedzone:
I think 96L will take a track very similar to Hurricane Charley. I see where the circulation, noticing some small bands of clouds/convection forming north of that swirl. 96L is organizing quite well in my opinion.


dont know wut ur looking at?
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ECMWF on 96L was interesting, makes it pretty large (and finally, picks up on it)
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1009. bjdsrq
INVEST 96L 19.0N, 86W moving N at 5mph.
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
854 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

A BROAD LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...COPIOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
LOW EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE LEVELS VERY WELL COULD REACH NEAR MAXIMUM HISTORICAL
VALUES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.

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Quoting P451:


Seems to be several small disturbances located within the generally large area of disturbed weather.

I'm wondering if one will establish dominance allowing cyclogenesis or if the whole mess might just fester and eventually move up over Cuba and South Florida and the Bahamas as just a large area of disturbed weather that doesn't organize.

Doesn't seem to be a clear cut answer this evening.

Perhaps as we approach DMax tomorrow morning we'll get a clearer picture as to what is going on.

======================

96L Floater Imagery - RAMMB

======================


Indeed, should be quite interesting tomorrow morning after D-Max.
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1006. IKE
Models for 96L...Link
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1005. 7544
looks like 96l will be a last min developing strom and fla gets caught in the middle lol
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Not too shabby for a fresh Invest:

Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1008 mb. (29.77 inHg | 1008 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 300 nautical miles (345 miles | 556 kilometers).

Radius of Max Winds: 90 nautical miles (104 miles | 167 kilometers)

System Depth: Deep

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1001. unf97
Hi Aquak! Watching all of this unfold closely uh?
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conditions should "get bad" tommoro night correct?
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I don't know Taz other then seeing his posts on the blog but I do know this...this is a weather blog not a people bashing forum. If you want to do that, go back to high school and stuff the nerd into his locker. My guess is though that if you are on a weather blog picking on someone you used to be the kid going INTO the locker. Some people really need to get a life.
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Quoting chrisdscane:


looks like time is running out


on what?
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I Think it will hit to the South and East of Where Charely made landfall...

Making Landfall in Extreme South Central Florida
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Quoting smartinwx:


You mean more worser and more worser. Hate to correct you there.... :)


lol
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Quoting RufusBaker:


Now THAT is funny!



Check your mail
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Quoting aquak9:
usually they hold off till the last minute...heck even Miami had school buses running the afternoon/evening that K_ came thru.

i wish they WOULD re-examine the priorities.


You should have seen Palm Beach County before Charley. Every county around them, including Broward I believe, cancelled school, they didn't. They released a half an hour early right when it veered course.
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Quoting CypressJim08:
I think when you look at the visable you can see some of the coldest cloud tops moving ENE because of the shear to the north. Until a strong LLC is determined it will be difficult for any of the models to get a good idea where it is going to go. Right now it is a waiting game but IMO I don't think 96L will get much stronger then a TS. As Levi stated in his blog it very well might be that the "Carolina's" get a stronger storm then the Bahamas/Florida.
I think what will factor in as well will be that cold front. No way is it going to stay around, though I would like to think it would get this far south, it really is too early. So when the trough pulls back it will pull the storm along with it.
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I think 96L will take a track very similar to Hurricane Charley. I see where the circulation, noticing some small bands of clouds/convection forming north of that swirl. 96L is organizing quite well in my opinion.
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NWS out of Melbourne has updated their 7-day forecast as well. Looks like locally heavy rain in my area, with breezy conditions on Wednesday, followed by a lull Thursday and then breezy/windy conditions from Friday thru Monday. Could be a significant rip current/beach erosion event at the least for the next week.
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989. P451
Quoting BenBIogger:
Weak LLC located just south of western Cuba and West of the Caymans Island.



Seems to be several small disturbances located within the generally large area of disturbed weather.

I'm wondering if one will establish dominance allowing cyclogenesis or if the whole mess might just fester and eventually move up over Cuba and South Florida and the Bahamas as just a large area of disturbed weather that doesn't organize.

Doesn't seem to be a clear cut answer this evening.

Perhaps as we approach DMax tomorrow morning we'll get a clearer picture as to what is going on.

======================

96L Floater Imagery - RAMMB

======================
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Taz does a great job, and has improved tremondously over the last few years. Unless you are looking for a ban, I suggest you not bait him, and/or try to humiliate him.
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/mfl/articulate/WxBriefing092710/player.html
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Quoting Tazmanian:



drop this you guys




other poofer too add to my well




any one that Quotes that will be POOFED now stop Quoteing it


now back too the weather
Hope i don't get poofed before something forms in the carribean...
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Okay Guys By Accident i Clicked Rich Text , How do i go back to the Typical Buttons?
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Stop picking on Taz.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
920 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-281000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
920 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
COASTS TONIGHT. LIGHTNING STRIKES, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, THERE IS AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AT LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.

THERE IS A MINIMAL RISK OF A TORNADO FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS
COULD DETERIORATE DEPENDING UPON IF ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA

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Quoting IKE:


looks like time is running out
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976. IKE
HPC 3-7 day maps...

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Quoting caneswatch:


I didn't say across the whole entire state, did I?
usually they hold off till the last minute...heck even Miami had school buses running the afternoon/evening that K_ came thru.

i wish they WOULD re-examine the priorities.
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973. CJ5
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:


Oh ok, does it look like schools will be shut down in Florida this week then? The Met here in NY said Florida will receive gusts to 35mph and torrential rains.


As of now, no schools will be shut down. We have an invest that may or may not develop and may or may not traverse to Florida and may or may not bring heavy winds and/or rain. It is too early.
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So I live ion Key West are we going to have a hurricane or just a storm. Thanks
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Mmmmmm, lemme think..........nope, still not funny. But keep trying! ;-)

+1
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Quoting IKE:


Ahh, all that dry air felt very good this morning. At least in my area it made it into the 50s, a day before the forecasts said to expect it.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Seen any strange squirrel behavior lately?

lol


No, just checkens
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Quoting aquak9:


Yep. All schools across the whole darn state.

are you kidding me???


I didn't say across the whole entire state, did I?
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Hi Reed. I am at work so I can't go back and revisit responses on the blog. What is 96L all about and where can it go in the next 2 days?

Thank you in advance.


Hey Joe!
96L should organize into Nicole in the next 48 hours, then a track towards Florida, but dunno if it will be east or west of Florida.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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