Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Not much model support yet? I just don't see 96L COC coming into S. Florida as 96L should move well South of Florida. They might get some rain but, that should be about all unless it does not move much over the next 24hrs and then the track might change more toward Florida if not toward the northern Gulf Coast States. Stay turned!


I would note that you are comparing a single-layer trajectory model (BAM- Beta and Advection Model) to a multi-layer global dynamical model (GFS- Global Forecast System)....
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18Z GFS at 18 hours is further east than the 12Z was at 24 hours
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Quoting Orcasystems:


There is not logical reason to believe its out of the risk zone for the remainder of the season.


hmmm, ok. Was just thinking that with the "highs" staying over us (SE Texas)and cold fronts coming in that we would probably have no more worries.
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why are people on here saying the center of 96L is on the coast of belieze and the models are being initialized from between the western tip of cuba and Cancun Mexico ????
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Not much model support yet? I just don't see 96L COC coming into S. Florida as 96L should move well South of Florida. They might get some rain but, that should be about all unless it does not move much over the next 24hrs and then the track might change more toward Florida if not toward the northern Gulf Coast States. Stay turned!


That Northern route into the panhandle would only pan out if the storm, as other monsoon storms takes more than 5 days to consolidate. Otherwise, it should start developing and leave with this current front. I say extreme South Florida hit from this one if it is taken with the first front due to how far South that first front is coming down.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Might be longer than 24 hrs. So far very little rain, just overcast skies and a strong South wind. Kind of nice actually but I am sure that once the rains begin the inches will add up quickly.

I just hope it doesn't become a TD sitting where it is becuase if it does there is a real chance of significant deepening in a relatively short period of time while heading in our general direction.


Lovely rain in my area, (St. Andrew, Jamaica) but I sure other areas could be getting clobbered. Listening to radio to hear if any areas are having problems
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1255. Patrap
We have experts?

Go Fig-ya?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hi All,

Does anyone think that TX could have any more issues this season or do you think TX is out of the risk zone now? Just curious...


There is not logical reason to believe its out of the risk zone for the remainder of the season.
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Hi All,

Does anyone think that TX could have any more issues this season or do you think TX is out of the risk zone now? Just curious...
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Really Guys how do i go from rich text back to regular buttons?????



Where you clicked to get Rich Text - does it now say Plain Text? (or)

Somebody said the other day that going onto preferences and choosing Reset Defaults would do it.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Good afternoon/evening all. It's been a beautiful Fall day here, temps in the high seventies.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Wow. That's impressive.



i did not even think it gets that hot
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1243. Patrap
Today's State Extremes
State Highs:
Santee 113F
Riverside 111 F
Fullerton 111 F
Los Angeles Downtown 111 F
Corona 111 F

State Lows:
Truckee-Tahoe 32 F
South Lake Tahoe 34 F
Alturas 35 F
Big Bear City 42 F
Montague 46 F


Los Angeles, California
Add to My Favorites - Add to My Email - iCal Feed RSS Feed
Local Time: 2:32 PM PDT (
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18Z of the GFS is starting too come IN
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Quoting Patrap:
For your Viewing Pleasure....

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






My guess is it splits the up rights....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
000
NOUS46 KLOX 271928
PNSLOX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1230 PM PDT MON SEP 27 2010

...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES REACHED 113 DEGREES AT
1215 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1877. THIS
ALSO BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY OF 106 SET IN 1963. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL GET HOTTER TODAY SO A RECORD TEMEPERATURE
REPORT WILL BE ISSUED ONCE IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY HAS BEEN REACHED.



now back too 96L


Wow. That's impressive.
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1238. Patrap
Hurricane Preparation 2010





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Thanks, Taz. I was just going to post that statement.

All time record high downtown Los Angeles and could get hotter yet before the day is done! Wow.
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1236. Patrap

113 Degrees! Today is Downtown LA's Hottest Day on Record


On September 27
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Quoting angiest:


Huh? What GFS run is that showing? Operational does not go there unless someone already has 18Z and it changed radically...

either that or the color coding may be wrong, I think that is the CLP or LBAR model.
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Full-screenStation 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 27 Sep 2010 20:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (190°) at 25.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.0 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 85.1 F

Winds up and pressure down in 1 hour.. 1004MB now..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
NOUS46 KLOX 271928
PNSLOX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1230 PM PDT MON SEP 27 2010

...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES REACHED 113 DEGREES AT
1215 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1877. THIS
ALSO BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY OF 106 SET IN 1963. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL GET HOTTER TODAY SO A RECORD TEMEPERATURE
REPORT WILL BE ISSUED ONCE IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY HAS BEEN REACHED.



now back too 96L
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1230. Patrap
For your Viewing Pleasure....

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






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Quoting RiverSteve:
President Obama today announced a plan to replace the existing hurricane naming process with a corporate sponsorship program that is expected to add at least $500 million annually to the federal coffers.
Link


lol... wut
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1227. angiest
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not much model support yet? I just don't see 96L COC coming into S. Florida as 96L should move well South of Florida. They might get some rain but, that should be about all unless it does not move much over the next 24hrs and then the track might change more toward Florida if not toward the northern Gulf Coast States. Stay turned!


Huh? What GFS run is that showing? Operational does not go there unless someone already has 18Z and it changed radically...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Not much model support yet? I just don't see 96L COC coming into S. Florida as 96L should move well South of Florida. They might get some rain but, that should be about all unless it does not move much over the next 24hrs and then the track might change more toward Florida if not toward the northern Gulf Coast States. Stay turned!


You might want to update.. they have at least 8 model tracks on it.

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1225. Patrap
Quoting HurricaneFCast:


Do not mislead those that do not understand satirical news. Not wise to post this without some disclaimer, it's bound to start a neurotic argument that will obviously be moot regardless.


Just flag that BS and try not to quote it.

Thats how we self moderate.
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I mentioned last night Julia might return out of nowhere. She has the look of an ex who you laughed off when you dumped her after a few days who is now coming back like a psycho-stalker.

I asked last night but no takers...

What is the longest time after the NHC has killed a storm (by last advisory) that a TC regeneration has occurred. Julia is now at 186 hourso or 7.5 days plus.

Any best guesses or previous experiences?
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Interesting track...

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http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs/gfs_car_005.jpg

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs_caribbean.html
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Quoting Orcasystems:
gfs 2010092712 Forecast slp Java Animation

1, 2 Punch for florida

Does not look pretty...

Good Afternoon Everyone.
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1219. Patrap
Theres always one bad banana in every Bunch..

Pfffth
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seems 96l is just inland should be over the water in 24 hours
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Not much model support yet? I just don't see 96L COC coming into S. Florida as 96L should move well South of Florida. They might get some rain but, that should be about all unless it does not move much over the next 24hrs and then the track might change more toward Florida if not toward the northern Gulf Coast States. Stay turned!
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Quoting sailingallover:

How are you guys for handling lots of rain?


There are several low lying areas that flood as Grand Cayman is very flat
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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