Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
i have a friend who, when we go to a ballgame, predicts a "home run!" every time an above average power hitter comes up. after doing this 12-15 times, of course, eventually one of the players hits it over the fence, after which my friend leaps up and declares . . . "CALLED IT!" lol. joe b will be that guy, one day when he's correct just by chance.


Out of all the things I've seen you say...I can actually agree with this.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
It appears likely even the Florida Peninsula will be protected by these fronts next week as they have a big one anticipated to sweep through early to mid next week!
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Good night folks. You all have fun...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hey HurricaneFCast, how are you?

We finally got a (little) rain here. Still more than 17" below normal.


Good. You?
That's good.. You all could use some rain, although not all at once! Haha. You'll likely get some more on Wednesday, though... Maybe cut an inch or two into that deficit between tonight and Wednesday, eh?
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GFS 18z 54 hours out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24031
Quoting tacoman:
I SAID THIS MORNING YOU WILL NOT GET A TROPICAL STORM OUT OF WHATS DOWN IN THE CARIBBEAN NOW...FLA IS IN THE CLEAR MAYBE A LITTLE RAIN THATS ABOUT IT...THEY SHOULD BE WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW HEAVY CONVECTION HAS FORMED TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW...


Which, I'll guess by your excellent prognostication skills, will bust the trough and smash Houston with a Cat 4 monster.

Hush, please.


Anthony
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

The image you posted clearly compared a multi-layered global dynamical model to a single-layer trajectory model. You then expressed your opinion that this system would more closely follow the single-layer trajectory model's output. If you do not wish to convey a certain opinion, I implore you to be wary of your posts' implications prior to sharing them with the blog.


Those single layer models outperformed the dynamic models with both Julia and Matthew

while the dynamic models were all over the place with Matthew, the BAMM suite had a very consistent track which ended up being right

with Julia, the BAMM suite was the only one that saw her make a loop and head back west; which is what she is currently doing


Sometimes the simplicity of the single-layer models are just better as the dynamic models overthink the situation. There is a reason the dynamic models flip-flop so much on track.
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Quoting tacoman:
I SAID THIS MORNING YOU WILL NOT GET A TROPICAL STORM OUT OF WHATS DOWN IN THE CARIBBEAN NOW...FLA IS IN THE CLEAR MAYBE A LITTLE RAIN THATS ABOUT IT...THEY SHOULD BE WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW HEAVY CONVECTION HAS FORMED TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW...


yeah... it's a little rain... looking at possibly double digit totals next 48 hours.... poof.
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If anyone missed it, repost of my blog update.

Tropical invest 94L a threat 9/27/10
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24031
1350. leo305
Quoting civilbull:
Looks like Miami. GFS 18Z and the ECMWF have it going in that direction. I'm just east of Tampa so it looks like a little wind and some rain for me (I hope).


at what intensity
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Quoting BLee2333:
1313 clwstmchasr :

LOL! You are obviously the exception around here! Glad to see someone's grounded!


He's keeping tabs on the wishcasting on this forum:)
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Looks like Miami. GFS 18Z and the ECMWF have it going in that direction. I'm just east of Tampa so it looks like a little wind and some rain for me (I hope).
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Quoting hydrus:
What do you mean further west?


that should have said further south and east; I will fix it
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1344. hydrus
Quoting Hurricanes101:
When you factor in that the front is moving farther south with the fact that the models have slowly trended eastward AND that the vorticity at 850mb levels seems to be concentrated further east; it is very possible this system stays further south and west than what was first indicated.

If that were to occur whatever 96L becomes could either graze Florida or miss it completely
What do you mean further west?
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

The image you posted clearly compared a multi-layered global dynamical model to a single-layer trajectory model. You then expressed your opinion that this system would more closely follow the single-layer trajectory model's output. If you do not wish to convey a certain opinion, I implore you to be wary of your posts' implications prior to sharing them with the blog.


+100000000
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When you factor in that the front is moving farther south with the fact that the models have slowly trended eastward AND that the vorticity at 850mb levels seems to be concentrated further east; it is very possible this system stays further south and east than what was first indicated.

If that were to occur whatever 96L becomes could either graze Florida or miss it completely
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1338. srada
Quoting Patrap:


Still awaiting the 18Z dynamic Runs or I'd of posted them.


ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)

Current Storms:
Invest96

One can bookmark it for the future

Link


I dont think they will post them..Im saying this because they didnt post the dynamic runs when Matthew became an invest initially. (Raleigh eastern weather website).they waited until the next run for the dynamic models to show up..i could be wrong but I got tired of waiting when they did it then for Matthew
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Tampa met said Tampa should be safe from 96L, but he said Miami could get winds from 40-60 mph and 5-6 inches of rain.


agree completely:)
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Quoting Levi32:


Another hurricane? Yes I think there is a strong possibility of that. The Caribbean will be active for quite a while yet.


you have wumail....
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Flooding reported...

Link
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1332. xcool
MONDAY 1 P.M.
TROPICAL STORM TO RUN EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

This storm will be scored according to the classification scheme on Dr. Bob Hart's cyclone phase diagrams page.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

I believe this will be at the least an asymmetrical warm core with gales on the east side and excessive rain of 4-6 inches for southeastern Florida, east of a line from ILM to ORF and then probably 2-4 inches of rain in coastal areas farther northeast. As you know, I have for years been proposing an objective criteria to take out all the guesswork, and you have seen cases of calls that left people shaking their head. So I will use an objective way of scoring, in case there is any controversy.

The midday runs have quite the impressive 850 mb jet on the east side of the storm, and the big question is will feedback interaction spin this so it is even stronger than I think. That is in the realm of possibility and interests in South Florida and the North Carolina coast (I think the storm will move on a path from ILM to ORF Thursday then move into southern New England after stepping back out over the water east of the Delmarva Peninsula and the New Jersey coast) should understand that named or not, they are in for tropical storm conditions, and let's just keep it that way for now.

The GFS continues to ride the comeback of Matthew idea.. and once this leaves, we have a new development over the western Caribbean this weekend. The pattern is the reason for this kind of season and at the very least, you can see the ideas at least following the spirit of the law, if not the letter!

Wow, LAX is 99 degrees at 10 a.m. their time. The speculation on 100 was not uncalled for and as warm as I was, not warm enough. In the meantime, as happens so often when the weather goes to extremes in one place, it's going to extremes in another the opposite way, with an early-season frost perhaps setting up a classic Indian Summer this year for the Midwest into some areas in the East.

This will be the first time since 2004 LAX has broken 100, impressive!!!!

Ciao for now.

joe bb
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1313 clwstmchasr :

LOL! You are obviously the exception around here! Glad to see someone's grounded!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I would like to point out that I AM NOT! I am looking at Satellite and other models and based upon these other all plugged together that is my Opinion as to what 96L will do. I just put out an Update. Go to my blog and follow the links.

The image you posted clearly compared a multi-layered global dynamical model to a single-layer trajectory model. You then expressed your opinion that this system would more closely follow the single-layer trajectory model's output. If you do not wish to convey a certain opinion, I implore you to be wary of your posts' implications prior to sharing them with the blog.
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Quoting tacoman:
I SAID THIS MORNING YOU WILL NOT GET A TROPICAL STORM OUT OF WHATS DOWN IN THE CARIBBEAN NOW...FLA IS IN THE CLEAR MAYBE A LITTLE RAIN THATS ABOUT IT...THEY SHOULD BE WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW HEAVY CONVECTION HAS FORMED TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW...


I noticed that too. But that of course is dependent upon the influence of the front to pull that thing out of the BOC.
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1326. Patrap
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Tampa met said Tampa should be safe from 96L, but he said Miami could get winds from 40-60 mph and 5-6 inches of rain.
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1320. tacoman 10:00 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
I SAID THIS MORNING YOU WILL NOT GET A TROPICAL STORM OUT OF WHATS DOWN IN THE CARIBBEAN NOW...FLA IS IN THE CLEAR MAYBE A LITTLE RAIN THATS ABOUT IT...THEY SHOULD BE WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW HEAVY CONVECTION HAS FORMED TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW...

miami news just said south florida could get between 9-11 inches of rain in the next two days, thats alot of rain no matter where you & could cause alot of flooding
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Quoting hydrus:
I am amazed how far south the trough is. It is at 25 degrees N and still digging.


Exactly...for a La Nina year huh....
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Quoting hydrus:
I am amazed how far south the trough is. It is at 25 degrees N and still digging.


another reason why 96L could easily not affect Florida much at all
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Quoting Patrap:


Current Conditions

South Gate, California (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Clear
107.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 15%
Dew Point: 50 °F
Wind: 8.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 15.0 mph
Pressure: 29.72 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 104 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles


"But it's a dry heat"
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1319. hydrus
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I live in the Tampa area and unless you can show me several models with the same output I'll pretty much discount it.
I am amazed how far south the trough is. It is at 25 degrees N and still digging.
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Quoting LiveToFish0430:


arrogant and self centered much?


Most of us have him on ignore...
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1317. Levi32
Back later.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I live in the Tampa area and unless you can show me several models with the same output I'll pretty much discount it.


Definitely not reliable. Front will pass South of Tampa. This would only happen if 96L took its time to develop and waited for the front to leave.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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