Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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Quoting JupiterFL:


Why did it ever shut off?


She must have the Squelch set too high.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Evening all. It's pretty quiet here, though I don't know how long THAT will last....

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Quoting NRAamy:
My weather radio just went off with a nerd warning!


Why did it ever shut off?
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1611. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
Whats happening Keep? What are your thoughts on 96L for track and intensity?
lots of atmospheric energy there as entire area tilts in a sw to ne oreintation things could get very interesting i've seen systems spin up in under 12 hrs before not sayin thats what happening but ya should at least watch just in case
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Quoting flsky:

Where are you located?


I'm way over in Panama City - I meant I saw your warning pop up on the map.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting flsky:
My weather radio just went off with a tornado warning!


Mine too! Volusia county FL is just popping right now.
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Nice update forecast video at 6.50 pm on TWC
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1606. FLDART1
Hook echo on NWS Radar...hmmmm
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1605. flsky
Quoting CaptnDan142:


You have anything going on there?

ETA: nvm, I see it now

Where are you located?
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Anyone know were thise front coming down from the north is supposed to stall out at?
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1603. flsky
Quoting CaptnDan142:


You have anything going on there?

A lot of thunder lightening off to the SW. The warning is valid until 8:30
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1601. NRAamy
My weather radio just went off with a nerd warning!
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Just think you could get two identities on here and carry on a whole conversation. Perfect symmetry.


It has always been my belief that almost all of the "trolls" on this blog are in fact one person. The writing is too much alike.
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1598. FLDART1
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
what is south fl> well that is an interesting question. broadly speaking you could say martin county south as for this discussion i would narrow it to say jupiter south. i have def. never seen a front in september anywhere south of there.
Ok just curious as many consider the demarcation line to be around Vero Beach on the East and St.Petersburg on the west coast.
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Quoting flsky:
My weather radio just went off with a tornado warning!


You have anything going on there?

ETA: nvm, I see it now
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting flsky:
My weather radio just went off with a tornado warning!


000
WFUS52 KMLB 272333
TORMLB
FLC127-280030-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0032.100927T2333Z-100928T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
733 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH DAYTONA...PORT ORANGE...PONCE
INLET...ORMOND BEACH...LAKE HELEN...HOLLY HILL...DAYTONA BEACH...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT.

* AT 730 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAKE
HELEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
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1595. flsky
My weather radio just went off with a tornado warning!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Your very right, we're 48hrs out now, time to toss the models and pay attention to the forecast and local NWS.
And the actual weather features out there. Although the local mets will be watching everything very closely..is Cantori on the move?
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Just think you could get two identities on here and carry on a whole conversation. Perfect symmetry.


Thinking back on a few things, I would say it's pretty likely that this has happened here.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting Seflhurricane:
by the looks of 96L it will probably remain at 40% in the next TWO


At best. Personally I think it should be 20 to 30 %. Apart from low surface pressures there is nothing in the way of organization.

Anyway, back later.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS LOW DOES NOT YET
HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting JupiterFL:
I believe Iceslater was simply stating what the GFS was showing next Monday. Not that it would happen for sure or not.


Thanks, JupiterFL. Just stating what I am seeing.

I have no idea what will happen. If I did, I'd be rich. =)
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Just think you could get two identities on here and carry on a whole conversation. Perfect symmetry.


Not to mention that one persona could forecast " farther West " and the other could go " with the NHC on this one ". Always right ??
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by the looks of 96L it will probably remain at 40% in the next TWO
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting Neapolitan:


True. Arguing with yourself is worse...and losing that argument is worst of all... :-)


LOL
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Quoting kmanislander:


Its only when you answer yourself that it is a sign of a potential problem


True. Arguing with yourself is worse...and losing that argument is worst of all... :-)
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Back after dinner
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1581. marmark
Quoting kmanislander:


Its only when you answer yourself that it is a sign of a potential problem
HA!
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I believe Iceslater was simply stating what the GFS was showing next Monday. Not that it would happen for sure or not.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


As in talking to yourself? Many do it here.


Its only when you answer yourself that it is a sign of a potential problem
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1578. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/96L
MARK
19.90N/85.50W


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Quoting CaribBoy:
Central Atlantic Disturbance is interesting.

Looks like ITCZ getting sheared mostly...but I can't get a recent loop.
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1574. FLDART1
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
sooo not true. i was right about every storm including igor. do you all recall all the heading west none-sense with that storm? don't hate the truth embrace it.

as for cold fronts the earliest i ever saw one get to south florida was oct 9. as late as nov 17. on average i'd say betw oct 20 and nov 4. NEVER in september and not this year.
What exactly do you consider to be South Florida?
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Quoting IceSlater:


As far as dead on accurate, that's probably far fetched... but the fact that the GFS keeps showing a new storm, that's pretty relevant.


Not really, when you consider how many times GFS has done that in the recent past. GFS has been crying wolf a lot.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-280800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
854 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...


MOISTURE LEVELS VERY WELL COULD REACH NEAR MAXIMUM HISTORICAL
VALUES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

GREGORIA

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1571. flsky
Sorry, off topic, but I was just wondering if there are rules here about quoting yourself.
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just looked at the cuban radar out of the western tip and i dont see anything that indicates a low pressure center
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And for me, no power for 7 days, sewer spillage, ect.


Yeah... and about 30 trees down
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... (oops)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting pilotguy1:
I don't want to down play anyone's opinion, however I have very little faith in anything out more than three or four days and for sure when it hasn't even developed yet.


As far as dead on accurate, that's probably far fetched... but the fact that the GFS keeps showing a new storm, that's pretty relevant.
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Quoting hydrus:
Whats happening Keep? What are your thoughts on 96L for track and intensity?

I would like to know your take on this also Keep.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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