Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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All I know is we are getting the cool down from that front in the panhandle..as long as whatever is happening stays away from the northern gulf...
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1664. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

96L - Its going to be interesting... most models have it going south of Florida... key word.. "SOUTH OF" not just "SOUTH". The LBAR is the major difference... it wants to go to Ike's house.

Pottery - Your going to get wet.. and I am pretty sure its going to have a number before it gets to you.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Ha!!
Dont try that...
You are just envious of our cheerful weather right now..... heheheh.
Actually, I was looking at that area, and thinking "it's gon' fizzle out before it gets here". But I have been 'wishfully thinking' for a couple of weeks.
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Quoting 34chip:
Martin,Palm Beach, Broward, Dade, and Monroe. On the west Coast, Collier, lee,Henry,Glades,Charlotte Counties are all of South FLorida in my book.


The "official" definiton of "South Florida" is Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties, period. However, in general usage, anything south of Lake Okeechobee is considered South Florida. (North of the lake to roughly the skinny waistline of the state is "Central Florida", north of that and west to about Tallahassee is "North Florida", and west of that is "The Panhandle". The only other general region is, of course, "The Keys".)
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Quoting flsky:
My weather radio just went off with a tornado warning!
Mine too...nasty storm we got here in Port Orange.
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Quoting Grothar:


Forget to put the models up?
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1659. srada
15 Ft seas and back to back low pressures for NC

WITH NEW FOCUS ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOST INLAND
AREAS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR THE INLAND SC/GA
BORDER TRACKS NE. THE 7.49 INCH DAILY RAINFALL RECORD AT ILM SET
BACK IN 1958 STILL REMAINS IN JEOPARDY HOWEVER...WITH OTHER SITES
LIKELY BREAKING OR ON THE VERGE OF BREAKING DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK UP FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH THE TRACK REMAINING TO THE WEST THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS THROUGH PERIOD. AS NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES FLORIDA REACHING THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED LOCAL AREA SHOULD SEE A STRONG ON
SHORE PUSH OF SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED NIGHT POSSIBLY UP TO 25
KTS OR SO IN THE OUTER WATERS. LATEST WNA PUSH SEAS UP WED NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURS UP OVER 15 FT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SEAS CAPPED
AT 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS HEADING INTO THURS MORNING AND 4 TO 5 FT
NEAR SHORE AS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS LOW.
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Quoting sailingallover:

Subtropical looking. And the water imagery maps have all the dry air to it's NW and it's big enough..



I saw a link thas said that the trough steering all this N, had cooler temps behind, so it could lower sea temps in GOM, but it doesn't seems so....
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Quoting pottery:
Good evening all.
Been away for a couple of days.
Not too much going on, I see. Except for 96L that is. Going to take a while for that mess to become anything, in my view.

The Trop. Atl looks like it is pretty calm too.
And locally we are wondering when the "petit careme" will arrive. This is a 2-week period, usually in Sept-Oct when we get hot bright conditions, before the rains start in earnest again.


Evening Everyone!

Pottery, I waited all day weds for you to wish me happy bday lol! Not really, but the weather here in SE La is veryyyyyyyyy nice!
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1656. Grothar
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Another front diving south behind the first one with a warm front coming from the west.
Will the first front get reinforced and move over FL?
Will Nicole be Extra Tropical?
Will FL be wet?
Now my favorite line..
Lets see in 12 hours...
Anybody around Galveston with winds and temps? What time of year kind of cold front is this?
Anyone in NO?
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
Complete Update

96L - Its going to be interesting... most models have it going south of Florida... key word.. "SOUTH OF" not just "SOUTH". The LBAR is the major difference... it wants to go to Ike's house.

Pottery - Your going to get wet.. and I am pretty sure its going to have a number before it gets to you.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Well models seem to have same track cmc gfdl, hrwf, gfs
NC DOOM
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1652. jonelu
In Key West...just got in from a snorkeling trip and hour ago. Choppy but sunny....Now its POURING...back home tomorrow to WPB
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Evening, vorticity appears to be starting to center at about 20N 84W.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
can you post the link for the new one


Link
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Quoting sunlinepr:

Subtropical looking. And the water imagery maps have all the dry air to it's NW and it's big enough..
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
1648. pottery
Good evening all.
Been away for a couple of days.
Not too much going on, I see. Except for 96L that is. Going to take a while for that mess to become anything, in my view.

The Trop. Atl looks like it is pretty calm too.
And locally we are wondering when the "petit careme" will arrive. This is a 2-week period, usually in Sept-Oct when we get hot bright conditions, before the rains start in earnest again.
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96L 18Z GFDL
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Quoting hydrus:
The CMC model is interesting... It brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico then into Fort Myers..Link


Yesterday CMC 0Z Run
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1644. NRAamy
Crabbie!!!!!! Good to see you, man!!!!

:)
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1643. hydrus
Quoting JupiterFL:
I believe Iceslater was simply stating what the GFS was showing next Monday. Not that it would happen for sure or not.
The CMC model is interesting... It brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico then into Fort Myers..Link
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Quoting sailingallover:

I made a post about that earlier but it was sheer conjecture. To get a Sub tropical storm so far south this time of year? But it does have all that dry cold air to it's NW and it is sitting at the tail of a Cold front.
On the local news they say the same. Sub-tropical if cyclonic at all. Local met said "zero chance" of hurricane. He'll either have the correct forecast or look like a fool. But they all say monsoonal. The flooding can be dangerous in places here.
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Quoting CycloneUK:


Nice low swirl west of Iceland

And those NE Atlantic storms are NASTY. I was in 30' swells off Morocco once from one that looked like that and in about the same spot..luckily I have never been in the same spot as one
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
1638. mbinmo
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Scary aint it? Jason had a conversation with his other alt once.
He does it on his blog all the time, just for laughs had to take a look.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Can't say im surprised...

THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
18z GFS



I made a post about that earlier but it was sheer conjecture. To get a Sub tropical storm so far south this time of year? But it does have all that dry cold air to it's NW and it is sitting at the tail of a Cold front.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
Rain here on Cayman Brac; gusty winds, nothing extreme, just gusty. Same barometric pressure as KmanIslander.
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The GFDL shows a weaker system, though the track resembles the HWRF.



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Quoting kmanislander:


Nope, no rain, nada. Conditions now 1005 mb and steady. Wind out of the SSE @ 6 mph !. Overcast

You get a MB for evening cooling. It's like you are in the ITCZ..
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
Can't say im surprised...

THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
18z GFS


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1632. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
We've actually had that happen.
several times in fact even to this day
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Below is the 18z HWRF at 66 hours:



Now at 120 hours it makes 'Nicole' a hurricane as it barrels towards the North Carolina outer banks.



I'll post the GFDL in a minute.
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Quoting hydrus:
If that is true, that is one seriously disturbed individual. how did one extremely tiny,pathetic little brain amass all the worthless, weird and vulgar material........What a troubled world we live in.....Convection looks to be increasing slightly..


Looks like whatever is going to form is starting to do so. Hopefully a little rain and nothing more.
If you read through the posts its not that much actual material. Its mostly posts simply stating ridiculous and contradictory opinions.
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96L 18Z HWRF
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1627. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CycloneUK:


Nice low swirl west of Iceland
winter is coming fall storms right on cue
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1626. NRAamy
Hahahahahahahahahahaha!

:)
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IMO, watch this area for a new low pressure center to develop by perhaps 12z tomorrow in the center of this image.


GFS 18z 12 hours shows a relocation from just off the Yucatan to this area, followed by intensification.


GGEM either has this moving NE in a hurry tonight or a relocation.


Same with the ECMWF in 24 hours, already a TS.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


True. Arguing with yourself is worse...and losing that argument is worst of all... :-)
Quoting pilotguy1:


Just think you could get two identities on here and carry on a whole conversation. Perfect symmetry.
We've actually had that happen.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


She must have the Squelch set too high.
Before I log on I make sure to turn mine off. Too expensive to replace.
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Nice low swirl west of Iceland
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1620. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting NRAamy:
My weather radio just went off with a nerd warning!
yep you are in the right place
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Thinking back on a few things, I would say it's pretty likely that this has happened here.
I am at a 90%+ confidence level that it has happened here. I also suspect that the probability of reocurance is increasing although I suspect that admins have increased the detection level as well.
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Sea temp

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1616. 34chip
Quoting FLDART1:
Ok just curious as many consider the demarcation line to be around Vero Beach on the East and St.Petersburg on the west coast.
Martin,Palm Beach, Broward, Dade, and Monroe. On the west Coast, Collier, lee,Henry,Glades,Charlotte Counties are all of South FLorida in my book.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Why did it ever shut off?


She must have the Squelch set too high.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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