Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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1714. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


You spoke the E word. You will be stricken down in your old age!


Too late! LOL I am so old, I don't even leave fingerprints anymore.
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Quoting sunlinepr:



I saw a link thas said that the trough steering all this N, had cooler temps behind, so it could lower sea temps in GOM, but it doesn't seems so....

A low of 55 in galveston tomorrow and 15knot N winds will start to cool things off. Water is not that deep. Probably a lot of fog off the coast Wednesday morning.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


In the middle of the dynamic models, the "grayish" square.


Had to use Paint to zoom in to see it.
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1709. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


Down east?

Ya can't get thayuh from heeuh.


eh-yuh!
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1708. centex
I noticed they left the floater up on xMatthew. Looks like it might be finally be moving up N.
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East Central Florida Nowcast as of 6:51 PM EDT on September 27, 2010
Now
Good evening. Scattered lightning storms will increase in coverage across Lake...Orange...Seminole...and Volusia counties as the East Coast sea breeze propagates inland and interacts with incoming storms from the southwest. A few storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph...frequent lightning and very heavy rain. Movement will be toward the northeast at around 20 mph. Elsewhere... isolated showers and lightning storms will affect portions of Brevard...Osceola...Indian River...Saint Lucie...Okeechobee and Martin counties.
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Wind direction shift at the bouy in the Yucatan. 19.9 85.1

6:50 pm NE ( 54 deg ) 5.9 m/s
6:40 pm ENE ( 65 deg ) 5.7 m/s
6:30 pm ENE ( 78 deg ) 4.0 m/s
6:20 pm E ( 83 deg ) 2.7 m/s
6:10 pm E ( 96 deg ) 2.2 m/s
6:00 pm SE ( 128 deg ) 2.1 m/s
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Quoting fldude99:
All I know is we are getting the cool down from that front in the panhandle..as long as whatever is happening stays away from the northern gulf...


My 7 day forecast..
bit of a cool down, but not much.
Interesting that Wednesday is predicted to be windy and rainy.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24262
1703. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


those models should shift west over time. happens every time.


Except when they shift East.
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Quoting Grothar:
There Canes, you happy now??



Very happy lol. Looks like a surprise for us is coming.
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Quoting Grothar:


Is that a consensus model or what? LOL


Bout time.. maybe that will shut a lot of bloggers up saying out to sea "hurricane101" for example
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1697. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
Where is Lower Alabama?


How do they know where "down east" is in Maine??
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Quoting sailingallover:

That front is pushing through and still moving well.
Regardless of what someone said about never a front south(I assume he meant south and through) of FL before early October I think this one is going through.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html

Our winds are light and coming from the SSW.
We are seeing pops of lightening and hearing thunder in the distance but the front pretty much fizzled out north of Daytona. At 2 p.m. Jacksonville had an isolated thunderstorm.
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1693. hydrus
Its like watching paint dry..........
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Quoting pottery:

You did'nt get the Porsche SUV I sent for your birthday??? ?? Shucks, it must have got lost..
LOL
Good to know the weather there is good. Daytime downpours here with lightening, and very localised flooding (minor stuff).
It's very nice actually....


I sent the porsche back, they told me I had to take over the note lol. Was great to get a taste of fall.
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1691. Grothar
There Canes, you happy now??

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1690. hydrus
Quoting BenBIogger:


Link
And a storm in the Atlantic trucking w-nw north of the Windward Islands.....Fascinating..:)
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180 hour gfs accumalated precipitation forecast
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1686. bjdsrq
Quoting Grothar:


Then can you tell me why the University of South Florida is in Tampa? LOL


He left out SW Florida. Must be a Yankee or carpet bagger. lol
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1685. Grothar
Quoting bjdsrq:


Bingo, finally some sensible convergence.


Is that a consensus model or what? LOL
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AND
Don't be to surprised if something spins up over the Gulf Stream off the coast besides whats coming from the south. There are already some areas of convection out there although mostly upper level.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
1683. pottery
Quoting doorman79:


Evening Everyone!

Pottery, I waited all day weds for you to wish me happy bday lol! Not really, but the weather here in SE La is veryyyyyyyyy nice!

You did'nt get the Porsche SUV I sent for your birthday??? ?? Shucks, it must have got lost..
LOL
Good to know the weather there is good. Daytime downpours here with lightening, and very localised flooding (minor stuff).
It's very nice actually....
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1682. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:


The "official" definiton of "South Florida" is Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties, period. However, in general usage, anything south of Lake Okeechobee is considered South Florida. (North of the lake to roughly the skinny waistline of the state is "Central Florida", north of that and west to about Tallahassee is "North Florida", and west of that is "The Panhandle". The only other general region is, of course, "The Keys".)


Then can you tell me why the University of South Florida is in Tampa? LOL
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Where is the TVCN?


In the middle of the dynamic models, the "grayish" square.
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1680. bjdsrq
Quoting Grothar:


Bingo, finally some sensible convergence.
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1679. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
663

WHXX01 KWBC 280002

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0002 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100928 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100928 0000 100928 1200 100929 0000 100929 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.6N 86.7W 18.6N 85.9W 18.4N 84.8W 19.0N 83.0W

BAMD 18.6N 86.7W 18.6N 85.8W 18.8N 84.4W 20.0N 82.9W

BAMM 18.6N 86.7W 18.5N 85.8W 18.3N 84.6W 19.0N 82.9W

LBAR 18.6N 86.7W 19.0N 86.2W 20.1N 86.0W 22.1N 85.8W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100930 0000 101001 0000 101002 0000 101003 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.0N 80.8W 26.5N 76.9W 30.5N 74.2W 33.6N 69.5W

BAMD 22.1N 81.4W 27.1N 77.6W 30.8N 72.5W 35.9N 63.5W

BAMM 20.9N 81.0W 25.6N 77.5W 29.1N 74.3W 33.3N 67.9W

LBAR 25.1N 85.6W 31.4N 83.7W 35.7N 75.4W 40.6N 61.7W

SHIP 61KTS 73KTS 76KTS 67KTS

DSHP 61KTS 61KTS 65KTS 56KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 86.7W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 88.0W DIRM12 = 84DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 88.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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1678. bjdsrq
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

96L - Its going to be interesting... most models have it going south of Florida... key word..


Your initial center looks way off. HWRF, GFS, and even ECWMF has pretty much now converged on a TD through the bahamas becoming a TS or cat1 along NC coast.
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1677. beell
Some reinforcement of the upper trough diving S on an 80-100 knot jet streak. Approaching the TX/OK border. May make a difference in just how deep into the tropics this feature can dig. As an opinion, still looks a little stronger than modeled on the GFS and NAM.


Loop
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Quoting Neapolitan:


The "official" definiton of "South Florida" is Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties, period. However, in general usage, anything south of Lake Okeechobee is considered South Florida. (North of the lake to roughly the skinny waistline of the state is "Central Florida", north of that and west to about Tallahassee is "North Florida", and west of that is "The Panhandle". The only other general region is, of course, "The Keys".)


I would include Naples, FT Myers and the SW coast as South FL
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Quoting Grothar:


Honestly, they were there a minute ago. LOL


Did ya leave them unsupervised lol?
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GOM sea temps

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Where is the TVCN?
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1671. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Forget to put the models up?


Honestly, they were there a minute ago. LOL
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1670. bjdsrq
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC model is interesting... It brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico then into Fort Myers..Link


It's a pretty old run. 00Z is from 8am local time this morning. Since then, the cold front has dug deeper than expected into the GOM and this blob is going to eject NE, have little effect on FL (more rain in bahamas) and then crank up a bit and brush OBX of NC.
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Quoting luvnbrat64:
Mine too...nasty storm we got here in Port Orange.

That front is pushing through and still moving well.
Regardless of what someone said about never a front south(I assume he meant south and through) of FL before early October I think this one is going through.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
The entire panhandle gets rain except me today..

Go figure.

Happened last night too..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24262
WV, Dry Air view

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All I know is we are getting the cool down from that front in the panhandle..as long as whatever is happening stays away from the northern gulf...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.