Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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Im showing a red X in some of my image postings instead of the image. Some post some don't. Do I need to change setting or? Can anyone help?
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1814. xcool
:0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting breald:


OMG...This is funny. Bless her heart.


it seemed to be fitting after the conversation in here....

Now I know why the call it North and or South Carolina, if you didn't separate them... it would have to be called East Alabama.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Inncorect. Fronts Will Stall before making it to South of Orlando


Not according to to the models. I'm not saying it's impossible just the fronts will tend to brush them more towards the Bahama's and dare I say Haiti(let's hope not them).

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Really? I hope so, my temps are predicted to be in the 90s still by Sun.


I mean Mon-Wed time frame(next week).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wilmington NC declares state of emergency due to record breaking rainfall. 9.87 inches today alone and still counting. Pray this future storm stays away.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
by the way can any one get on too facebook?

Yes I have been on there why????


Taco :o)
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1808. hydrus
Quoting TropicThunder:


Thanks for the link hydrus
hope it worked for you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicThunder:


From NWS Melbourne AFD 347PM EDT....

...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FOCUS ON THE
MENAGERIE OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND BECOMING DOMINANT LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND POINTS NORTH. WITH THE CUT
OFF LOW CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS AL/MS AND THE FAR WEST FL
PANHANDLE...FRONT SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.


After which a stall and retrograde for Wednesdays disturbance.
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1805. fire635
Quoting FLdewey:

No surge.... just a stiff breeze.


Exactly... IF a storm skirted the west coast, it doesnt take much to cause coastal flooding, but at this point I think we're safe to say that the future Nicole (or whatever it is when it comes north) is going to stay fairly well south and east of us north of Tampa
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Quoting xcool:


i stay on north shore .wwltv.com


WOW...if NOLA's getting near 80's by the weekend, that must mean we here in Acadiana's getting...mid to upper 70's?!?!? And maybe even,...egads...upper 40's for lows????

We'll gladly take that for our weekend!!

BTW...that trough's now almost down to the northen reaches of the Yucatan and still building. So much for anything tropical even thinking of sliding into the W/NW Gulf for the next 2 - 3 weeks.


Anthony
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
See if this can help...Link


Thanks for the link hydrus
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Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, I would normally never ever do this... but I am going to post a link that you have to see...

Its made for people from the North.. or due west or whatever... of South Carolina...

DO NOT be drinking by your monitor as you watch this.

You Bet Your Life - Definitely From the South


That was funny and scarey at the same time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1801. breald
Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, I would normally never ever do this... but I am going to post a link that you have to see...

Its made for people from the North.. or due west or whatever... of South Carolina...

DO NOT be drinking by your monitor as you watch this.

You Bet Your Life - Definitely From the South


OMG...This is funny. Bless her heart.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting NRAamy:
Come again? What's wrong with carpet?


I've heard of carpet burns?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1798. mbinmo
Quoting anyotherliestotell:


you haven't evacuated yet? ooo kay.
Hey i got 1 for you i say the sun will come up in the east, what do you say?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Well, if you wanna get all technical and nit-picky about it....

;-)


I'm well known for wanting to see the beef.
Member Since: November 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1030
Quoting weatherbro:


According to model consensus we do...


From NWS Melbourne AFD 347PM EDT....

...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FOCUS ON THE
MENAGERIE OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND BECOMING DOMINANT LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND POINTS NORTH. WITH THE CUT
OFF LOW CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS AL/MS AND THE FAR WEST FL
PANHANDLE...FRONT SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pilotguy1:

Ah ah I think you are on to something. We need a storm first.


Well, if you wanna get all technical and nit-picky about it....

;-)
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1793. hydrus
Quoting TropicThunder:
Does anyone here know why there is no floater on 96L??
See if this can help...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1791. FLdewey
Quoting NavarreMark:
If 96L continues to develop and goes up the west coast of FL with the right front quadrant skirting Tampa Bay as a strong TS. How much storm surge could be expected.

1 foot?
3 feet?
5 feet?

The reason I am asking is that people on low ground need to know. They may need to evacuate, even if only to camp out on high ground for a day or two.

No surge.... just a stiff breeze.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Easy there, first we need an actual storm first!

Ah ah I think you are on to something. We need a storm first.
Member Since: November 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1030
Quoting NavarreMark:

The reason I am asking is that people on low ground need to know. They may need to evacuate, even if only to camp out on high ground for a day or two.


Given that scenario... I suspect that people who need to know will find out from a reliable source.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1788. hydrus
In this model the Cayman Islands get hammered pretty good. It basically forms right on top of them..Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone here know why there is no floater on 96L??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Come again? What's wrong with carpet?

Not the "in" thing any more. Don't you watch HGTV? Must be hardwood floors (which scratch) granite counter tops (which require sealing periodically or they absorb liquids) and stainless steal appliances (which show fingerprints horribly and aren't magnetic). Otherwise the house is only fit for a third world country.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1785. FLdewey
Quoting CosmicEvents:
There's a Top Ramen Noodle!
.
.
There's that cloud again....heading WEST!!!!

West is best... t-shirts available soon.

Alabama eh? Good skrimps in Bayou la Batrie... at least there WERE good skrimps.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


no cold fronts expected to drop into central or south florida until well into October..


According to model consensus we do have one comin' by early to mid next week...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NavarreMark:
If 96L continues to develop and goes up the west coast of FL with the right front quadrant skirting Tampa Bay as a strong TS. How much storm surge could be expected.

1 foot?
3 feet?
5 feet?

The reason I am asking is that people on low ground need to know. They may need to evacuate, even if only to camp out on high ground for a day or two.


According to Masters it would be like ten feet for a cat2 or 3.
Member Since: November 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1030
Quoting NavarreMark:
If 96L continues to develop and goes up the west coast of FL with the right front quadrant skirting Tampa Bay as a strong TS. How much storm surge could be expected.

1 foot?
3 feet?
5 feet?

The reason I am asking is that people on low ground need to know. They may need to evacuate, even if only to camp out on high ground for a day or two.


you haven't evacuated yet? ooo kay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind shear is 10kts over the COC, we could see some pretty modest strengthening overnight.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1780. ackee
Quoting hurricanecrab:
Looks like Jamaica is likely to get a pounding; bad news with the mountain mudslides.
Jamaica is currently under a flash flood warning until 5AM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1779. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:




by saying RIP too 96L am helping it too get stronger



so RIP RIP RIP RIP too are little 96L now that am saying that it will get stronger

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NavarreMark:
If 96L continues to develop and goes up the west coast of FL with the right front quadrant skirting Tampa Bay as a strong TS. How much storm surge could be expected.

1 foot?
3 feet?
5 feet?

The reason I am asking is that people on low ground need to know. They may need to evacuate, even if only to camp out on high ground for a day or two.


Easy there, first we need an actual storm first!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:
To all you Tampa folks: Had a great visit to your city this weekend. Got to see a great football game and the weather was beautiful. Love the city!


As a Steelers fan it was easy to love Tampa this weekend!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


Down east?

Ya can't get thayuh from heeuh.


OK, I would normally never ever do this... but I am going to post a link that you have to see...

Its made for people from the North.. or due west or whatever... of South Carolina...

DO NOT be drinking by your monitor as you watch this.

You Bet Your Life - Definitely From the South
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like Jamaica is likely to get a pounding; bad news with the mountain mudslides.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To all you Tampa folks: Had a great visit to your city this weekend. Got to see a great football game and the weather was beautiful. Love the city!
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by the way can any one get on too facebook?
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1771. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been tracking those TWO since the left Africa... they getting stronger everyday.

Really??
I have been away since Friday...
so I am Blissfully Unaware...
will need to pay more attention to that.

How is your weather? Good for Golf?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FSUstormnut:
the low is listed at 1003 on the nhc website..


Just coming in to post the 1003mb low in the NW Caribbean.


Click the fronts tab and speed it up. Slowly organizing ATM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Sounds about right to me... SW Florida would be Naples, Ft. Meyers, Marco Island. Panhandle is also "Lower Alabama"

SW florida includes

Sarasota, Charolette, Lee, Collier, Desoto, Glades, and Hendry.. mainland Monroe
Manatee is kindof on the border in between Central and South West Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1768. Ron5244
Quoting Dakster:


Because it has to be further North than the University of Central Florida. Didn't you know the further North you go in Florida the further towards "the South" you go.


Haha, so true.
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Quoting fldude99:


I would include Naples, FT Myers and the SW coast as South FL


That's SW FL not South Florida.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i now call it happy RIP 96L day




YAY RIP 96L


is it geting stronger yet?


Oh yeah - stronger by the minute
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just go t back on and I think I'm going to pretend like I never read the last twenty or thirty posts. Sheesh.
Member Since: November 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1030

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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