Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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2015. Ron5244
Quoting Grothar:


I am getting a much weaker system than this when I run the 18z HWRF...interesting.
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Looking at satellite and the pressure drops, Seems a flight is in order. All the standard issue protocol is coming around now for the invest so I believe they are starting to take notice to 96L.
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2013. leo305
Quoting weatherwart:
Use this link, click on the fronts and slow the animation way down and you can see a little bit of spin and then the convection pop right where that 1000mb low is located.



Link


yep.. heavy convection blowing up over the center.. as DMAX begins..
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2012. Grothar
The GFDL at 60 hours approx 91.3mph.


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I was wondering when they were going to make it official.

Looking at the models, I think I'll need a drink. Uh, a real one.



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Quoting leo305:
hot tower blowing up near the center of 96L..

pressure down to 1000mb.. development is almost likely..
you can't have a true "hot tower" on an area of low pressure.
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Use this link, click on the fronts and slow the animation way down and you can see a little bit of spin and then the convection pop right where that 1000mb low is located.



Link
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Just a lot of raking up leaves and a branch broke of a tree.
Well, that's good.
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Complete Update

96L
- All of the updates are bad news... majority of models and Tracks are into South Florida.

Pottery's little buddy is getting fired up also.. and wants a number soon.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting NRAamy:
WOOT WOOT!!!
( that's the sound of the Night Shift horn, alerting all people with no lives to come aboard )


Present!
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LOL Grothar we have a West Bay on Grand Cayman and West End on Cayman Brac by the way sorry for posting this so long I got busy and just got back
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
If that 1000mb reading is accurate, that is a substantial drop in 2 hours from 1004.


That is a surface analysis, which is based on buoy data, where the 1000 mb low was shown. Not sure which buoy is making the folks analyze this down to 1000 mb. Its possible the lowest pressure center had not yet passed over a buoy, then all of the sudden it did, and it passed over at 1000 mb. So it may have actually been less than 1004 mb a few hours ago, but the lowest pressure center wasn't over a buoy yet when it was claimed to be at 1004 mb, with 1004 mb being a guess. JMO
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2001. BDADUDE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hopefully. I never take my eye off them until they dissipate. Did you have much damage from Igor ?
Just a lot of raking up leaves and a branch broke of a tree.
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2000. Grothar
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Quoting mbinmo:


Look in your WUMailbox.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting BDADUDE:
At least this one will be absolutely no threat to Bermuda!!
Hopefully. I never take my eye off them until they dissipate. Did you have much damage from Igor ?
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1996. flsky
Quoting NavarreMark:


Not to mention the toothless population.

Does that include all of us w/advanced degrees and beautiful teeth? Sheesh, you have any other stupid stereotypes you'd like to tell us about??
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1995. BDADUDE
Quoting Alockwr21:


Um not good for folks in NC! Huge rain event if nothing else
That is not very accurate dude.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yeah weve received 8 inches of rain the past 36 hours, and are expecting another 1-2 tonight and early morning, then this cluster of tropical moister that may become nicole is going to move over our area thursday! nothing we are not used to here in hurricane prone eastern NC!


Its been quite a while since our last storm though. Way overdue
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


GFDL 78 hours


Um not good for folks in NC! Huge rain event if nothing else
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1992. leo305
Quoting A4Guy:


please look up the definition of "hot tower" before you use the term....


-90 degree cloud top? LOL
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1990. centex
AL, 96, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 186N, 867W, 25, 1003, DB
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1989. NRAamy
Captn....yes and yes...and some Depends for Grothar as requested, sir...

Permission to come aboard?
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If that 1000mb reading is accurate, that is a substantial drop in 2 hours from 1004.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Click the fronts tabLink


Roger that, yep, see its analyzed at 1000 mb on the fronts tab. Wow, that is one heck of a pressure drop, but this is so broad that even 1000 mb won't cut it to make a tight center yet. This'll be interesting, it may take till the 990s before this thing becomes a tropical cyclone. Wow, so broad!
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Quoting NRAamy:
Time to clock in for the Night Shift?


Tag, your the babysitter.. its your turn

P.S. I fed them all chocolate covered coffee beans and let them wash it down with gator aid... I hope thats not a problem :)
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Quoting oleClegs:


C ya got your eyes on it. Little wet there, seems like there may be some more. Wet soaked ground and a little wind = trees downed


yeah weve received 8 inches of rain the past 36 hours, and are expecting another 1-2 tonight and early morning, then this cluster of tropical moister that may become nicole is going to move over our area thursday! nothing we are not used to here in hurricane prone eastern NC!
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1982. NRAamy
Time to clock in for the Night Shift?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Btw, Julia's remnant is the next Fred (Fred 2009). Like ex-Fred, ex-Julia won't die. Did anyone else lose there head today when they saw Julia mentioned earlier today in the NHC tropical weather outlook? I am surprised at how tenacious that remnant low is. I wonder if ex-Lisa will follow ex-Julia's footsteps?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4.html
As of yesterday, I saw Ex-Igor around 55N45W S of Greenland. Is that super intense gale centered at 60N30W in the above sat. loop now where Ex-Igor went? Or is that a gale that has finally absorbed Ex-Igor?


I figured it out with this analysis loop:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/namfntloop_7day.html
You can see Igor become extratropical thru 0119Z September 22, then stall out between Canada and Greenland beginning on the 23rd, then starting to accelerate eastward and pass just south of Greenland on the 26th (yesterday). Then today, ex-Igor went nuts! It started as a 990 mb low, then it bombs out to 975 mb as shown on today's 1322Z analysis. Ex-Igor still lives! Wow!
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1979. BDADUDE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, she is. LOL
At least this one will be absolutely no threat to Bermuda!!
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1978. A4Guy
check out the microwave imagery on the USN site....no evidence of a circulation (to my untrained eye)
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Quoting BDADUDE:
I would say that you have absolutely nothing to be concerned about but it dosent hurt to keep an eye on your local met office.


Dude....absolutely and nothing in the same sentence? You're talking about a tropical system here.
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1976. will40
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Quoting leo305:


is he located in gran cayman?
Yes, she is. LOL
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1974. A4Guy
Quoting leo305:
hot tower blowing up near the center of 96L..

pressure down to 1000mb.. development is almost likely..


please look up the definition of "hot tower" before you use the term....
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1973. leo305
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



1000mb now, heads up.


is he located in gran cayman?
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Quoting will40:


i dont think it will be much when and if it hits the gulf stream theres 30 to 40 kts of shear above Cuba.


That's above Cuba in a small area east and west. Storm will move north out of shear area
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1971. leo305
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Click the fronts tabLink


yep 1000mb
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



1000mb now, heads up.
Thanks. I am watching it closely.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


no fortunately i am from 5 hours southeast of there near wilm, nc but just visiting the area is a culture shock in itself! rattle snake ranglin' and worm races galore! OH LAWD! get out my chapstick and my snipe huntin glasses, winners a comin'


C ya got your eyes on it. Little wet there, seems like there may be some more. Wet soaked ground and a little wind = trees downed
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Click the fronts tabLink
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1967. will40
Quoting mcluvincane:


Will, check out the model intensity forecast couple call for cat 1 and wouldn't rule out a cat 2 with the gulf stream. Very possible


i dont think it will be much when and if it hits the gulf stream theres 30 to 40 kts of shear above Cuba.
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Quoting mbinmo:
Just curious i guess, figured there would be silence no way to win that argument


Actually, I was thinking the opposite. Sucker bet, but on the wrong side.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Btw, Julia's remnant is the next Fred (Fred 2009). Like ex-Fred, ex-Julia won't die. Did anyone else lose there head today when they saw Julia mentioned earlier today in the NHC tropical weather outlook? I am surprised at how tenacious that remnant low is. I wonder if ex-Lisa will follow ex-Julia's footsteps?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4.html
As of yesterday, I saw Ex-Igor around 55N45W S of Greenland. Is that super intense gale centered at 60N30W in the above sat. loop now where Ex-Igor went? Or is that a gale that has finally absorbed Ex-Igor?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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