Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2115 - 2065

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Quoting kmanislander:


I have but never got around to it. I have a Vantage Pro 2 from Davis which is a nice piece of equipment. Incidentally, the pressure is on the way down again at 1005.2 mbs
Are you getting much rain in town ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We're getting some really deep convection around the COC now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Fla55Native:


Great link. Thanks "added to favorites"
Link

Try this one. This gives locations all over Grand Cayman and links to buoys, NRL etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherrx:
Looks like the cool fronts are lining up, this should end any threats this season to
the northern gulf. What do you guys think


Unless anything develops from the front and pushes inland ... short lived weak systems
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the cool fronts are lining up, this should end any threats this season to
the northern gulf. What do you guys think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2108. leo305
Quoting IceSlater:


We hadn't had a hurricane in quite some time after Andrew and prior to Katrina... I was like "Oh, Cat 1, eh bad, but not THAT bad."

Woah, I was shocked... That was extremely strong and told myself I would NEVER downplay a Cat 1 again.

If you recall looking at the computer models for Katrina, many of them showed it with a SW move, but, you're correct... not many mentioned it.

With this storm, I just hope it doesn't organize. Too many false calls over the last few years... too many new people in S. Florida that just don't understand or care.

Could be a bad situation.


the only station that mentioned a possible southward jog was CBS4.. and the person that was covering katrina was bryan norcross
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
Have you considered putting data on WU? I upload my ws data to my website and for easy comparison to over near stations to WU.


I have but never got around to it. I have a Vantage Pro 2 from Davis which is a nice piece of equipment. Incidentally, the pressure is on the way down again at 1005.2 mbs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Wxouttacontrol:
the most disconcerting thing regarding the 18z GFS is that at 168 hours there is a stalled hurricane over so fla


Even more disconcerting than that is how the GFS looks to be correct with this Caribbean disturbances.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Try this. ORIA


Great link. Thanks "added to favorites"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2103. FLDART1
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
oh come on now. katrina in south florida lol. they need to redefine "deaths" "caused by" hurricanes. they make it sound like trees crashing through roofs when 95% are caused by poor judgment AFTER storms like grabbing onto power lines, driving through intersections with no lights, or burning stuff or running generators in the house. how many died DURING the storm?
Ok Katrina aside, look at the damage Fay did to the state as a TS. I do however agree with your analysis of storm related deaths. Another Storm to mention was the March of 93 storm... Didnt even have a name (wasnt even tropical in nature) yet caused extensive damage throughout the state including spawning multiple strong Tornadoes in Marion County. I guess what I am saying is dont underestimate the potential.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


a lot of people I know hours before katrina hit, thought it wasn't ganna even hit miami, since most of the latino population was watching Univision which was saying it would hit West palm beach -_-..

as a tropical storm.. with thunderstorm winds.. (I remember NBC said that too, nothing more than a prolonged summer thunderstorm)

and then it became a hurricane, and demolished the area.. the eye went right through my house.. completely calm, everyone went outside during the eye thinking the storm was over.. and then the STRONGER east side came through...

when we woke up, me and my dad went outside, and some neighber had asked " Is a category 1 the strongest strength of a hurricane? This is unbelievable", then my dad kindly said.. "No.. this is the lowest strength a hurricane can be.." and his jaw dropped..

best day of my life..

Did I mention it was my birthday? LMAO


We hadn't had a hurricane in quite some time after Andrew and prior to Katrina... I was like "Oh, Cat 1, eh bad, but not THAT bad."

Woah, I was shocked... That was extremely strong and told myself I would NEVER downplay a Cat 1 again.

If you recall looking at the computer models for Katrina, many of them showed it with a SW move, but, you're correct... not many mentioned it.

With this storm, I just hope it doesn't organize. Too many false calls over the last few years... too many new people in S. Florida that just don't understand or care.

Could be a bad situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will40:


High above Cuba tho
I see that but I think it might relax before it gets there since it will be moving NE or NNE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something a lot of people don't think about when referring to a Cat 1 hurricane is, how long since the last major storm in the area?

A Cat 1 coming relatively soon after a Cat 3 probably won't find much to play with, like weak tree limbs, etc. The bigger one already took all that away.

But if it has been a few years, and there hasn't been much on the way of wind in the area, there can be a lot more debris flying around because it hasn't been 'cleaned out' in a long time.

Recent heavy rains can add to the problem as well.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
2098. leo305
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
the highest gust in south florida was 92 mph, with sustained winds at 75, BARELY a hurricane. i sat outside and watched that. we played football when the eye went over extreme southeast broward (then headed southwest). not a big storm until it hit the gulf. in fact that's why it was a big news story, no one expected it to explode except that stormtop guy lol.


Broward didn't get anything.. the core of the hurricane went through north dade.. the northern eye wall passed through EXTREEME southern broward.. are you sure the "EYE" that went trhough wasn't the dry area that formed outside of the eye wall? Because I remember watching TWC saying the eye had come through FT LAUDARADLE, when the REAL EYE hit around 11 pm/ 12 am around north dade/dade broward line.

the northern areas got wind, but nowhere near hurricane force or strong TS force winds..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
the highest gust in south florida was 92 mph, with sustained winds at 75, BARELY a hurricane. i sat outside and watched that. we played football when the eye went over extreme southeast broward (then headed southwest). not a big storm until it hit the gulf. in fact that's why it was a big news story, no one expected it to explode except that stormtop guy lol.


Just wondering something????
Are you sure he (stormtop guy) was the only one?????

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End still showing 1004 mb.Link
Quoting kmanislander:


I can't link you, the readings are from my own weather station





got it. Awesome, thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2093. will40
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like shear in that area has relaxed some too.


High above Cuba tho
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mcluvincane:


Millions in property damage also I might add
but his mommy has never explained to him the meaning/significance of property damage
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


I can't link you, the readings are from my own weather station
Link

Try this. ORIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2090. leo305
Quoting IceSlater:
If a Cat 1 came into S. Florida on Wednesday, I can tell you right now that 90% of people are unprepared and will not expect it all at.

When Katrina came rolling through, we had a lot of time to watch it.


a lot of people I know hours before katrina hit, thought it wasn't ganna even hit miami, since most of the latino population was watching Univision which was saying it would hit West palm beach -_-..

as a tropical storm.. with thunderstorm winds.. (I remember NBC said that too, nothing more than a prolonged summer thunderstorm)

and then it became a hurricane, and demolished the area.. the eye went right through my house.. completely calm, everyone went outside during the eye thinking the storm was over.. and then the STRONGER east side came through...

when we woke up, me and my dad went outside, and some neighber had asked " Is a category 1 the strongest strength of a hurricane? This is unbelievable", then my dad said.. "No.. this is the lowest strength a hurricane can be.." and his jaw dropped..

best day of my life..

Did I mention it was my birthday? LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2089. Ron5244
Quoting Grothar:



Try this one:

Link


Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2088. centex
Quoting kmanislander:


I can't link you, the readings are from my own weather station
Have you considered putting data on WU? I upload my ws data to my website and for easy comparison to over near stations to WU.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:
Late Nite Tropical Update Sept. 27th. 2010Quoting weatherguy03:
Late Nite Tropical Update Sept. 27th. 2010


Thanks for the late night update Bob, 1000mb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
oh come on now. katrina in south florida lol. they need to redefine "deaths" "caused by" hurricanes. they make it sound like trees crashing through roofs when 95% are caused by poor judgment AFTER storms like grabbing onto power lines, driving through intersections with no lights, or burning stuff or running generators in the house. how many died DURING the storm?


No big deal, but big enough to have power lines down? No lights at intersections... and running generators?

You've been ignored.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IceSlater:
If a Cat 1 came into S. Florida on Wednesday, I can tell you right now that 90% of people are unprepared and will not expect it all at.

When Katrina came rolling through, we had a lot of time to watch it.


Exactly my thoughts!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the most disconcerting thing regarding the 18z GFS is that at 168 hours there is a stalled hurricane over so fla
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


you consider 84MPH winds a joke? Heck I think miami reported some 90MPH winds during katrina.. nearly CAT 2 strength.. I thought katrina was just as bad as Wilma was, and I went through both of them in miami


Millions in property damage also I might add
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. Thanks I knew that but sometimes it is tough.


mhmm, it can be.

LOL
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
ANY Hurricane can do some damage, including a Cat 1. Hopefully we are not looking at a Hurricane striking FL in the short term, especially since I have a feeling many locally here are currently brushing it off as a bad thunderstorm coming.

When do you think we could see Watches issued for S FL? I don't want to see the complacency and then it builds unexpectedly and we have a Hurricane with no one prepared for it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GC (Airport)
Updated: 17 min 11 sec ago
77 °F
Light Thunderstorm Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the South
Pressure: 29.71 in (Steady)
Visibility: 5.6 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 1000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 17000 ft
(Above Ground Level)

Obs from our airport
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaptnDan142:


And that is exactly what he is trying to do.
Now, calmly, slowly, step away from the bait....
LOL. Thanks I knew that but sometimes it is tough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If a Cat 1 came into S. Florida on Wednesday, I can tell you right now that 90% of people are unprepared and will not expect it all at.

When Katrina came rolling through, we had a lot of time to watch it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
... but when you say things like that you really test me.


And that is exactly what he is trying to do.
Now, calmly, slowly, step away from the bait....
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
2072. Grothar
Quoting Ron5244:


I am using this one.



Try this one:

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25421
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
Looks like shear in that area has relaxed some too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


tell that to katrina when it hit SFL


That's just what I was about to write.

Katrina was no joke as a Cat 1 through S. Florida... and I went through Andrew, too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2069. centex
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Really? I see 1003 listed, SSD has it listed at 1000, which is it? Don't blame the users for inaccurate information, it could be either.
Sorry but your ignoring the best source I know of. Data on those graphics are not the best source for data like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2068. leo305
Quoting anyotherliestotell:


katrina in so fl was a joke. i sat on my porch for that one. one tree down per block at most. no electrical for 24 hours. hardly worth a 'cane party.


you consider 84MPH winds a joke? Heck I think miami reported some 90MPH winds during katrina.. nearly CAT 2 strength.. I thought katrina was just as bad as Wilma was, and I went through both of them in miami
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It's weird though since the winds just died down to 5 mph and just about 15-20 minutes ago was at 25-30 mph.


There may be a couple centers bobbing around it is broad ATM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oleClegs:


Link Please?


I can't link you, the readings are from my own weather station
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Late Nite Tropical Update Sept. 27th. 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2115 - 2065

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.