Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2215 - 2165

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

2215. 34chip
I really don't think Key West is going to get much just normal rain. No storm. What do you all think???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2214. Seastep
Quoting futuremet:


Where have you been hiding?

Good to see you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2213. centex
The models are kind of like us now, eventually they will be right after being wrong many times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Coolio...hoping all hurricane seasons are like this!

Not exciting! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening folks...anyone know what the forecasted sheer is for the GOM for tomorrow and wednesday? Does this invest have anything preventing it from rapid intesification once it clears cuba?

Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
This is not developing quickly.



might see a bit more vort, at the 3utc update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2206. centex
What little faith I had in models past 3 days, or TC genesis has taken a hike. I guess these are bad times for models. But I will still watch them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L is developing a better defined low level circulation now near the Kayman islands. Going to bed now, need sleep, tomorrow could be busy with future Nicole. 00z GFS shows a very dynamic setup for the eastern US coastline this week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Early indications are that the GFS is backing off the 2nd storm around S. Florida in 132 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2202. centex
This is not developing quickly.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2200. NRAamy
Thanks, Cosmic....thankfully, I have a vivid imagination....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those in SEFL, this about sums it up and is a general consensus among the more reliable models.

GFS00Z Run. Showing a strong tropical storm that is right loaded. Meaning, impacts will increase as you get closer to the east coast, with Lake O being the mark. The GFS has a hard time accurately depicting the core of a cyclone, this is where I wonder if a CAT 1 is possible. 1000mb on the Dvorak scale is a mid-range TS, if another closed isobar exists inside the 1000, it would more likely be 990-995 (Cat1).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maaaan, several days of watching weak spins in the bays and western carribean, this kind of tropical activity is mindnumbing!

It's almost like waiting for a boiled egg to hatch.. :P

There are atleast two circulations out there, and nothing is getting its act together "rapidly."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2194. NRAamy
You plan on sharing, wart?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Where's the chocolate cake?
I'd be happy to put up a pic of the cake, but I'm afraid I'd get banned for an inappropriate image. There's unfortunately some ill-willed folks around. Bad timing, as there's some rain and wind around I'll refrain for now but you can dream about the pic and the pennies from heaven.
.

I see a cloud....moving WEST!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2192. help4u
is that a cat1 for north carolina?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2190. 7544
96l is really tring to pull it all together now look for rapid development at dmax for those who wish to blog on the weather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bballerf50:


How do you see when the model is running? My site only shows them once they have been out for a while.

Thanks!

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2187. will40


60 hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2186. Bielle
Quoting Ryuujin:
Why in the world hasn't anyotherliestotell been banned yet mods? I mean he spouts off nonsense, doesn't talk about the weather. Lies repeatedly and trashes other bloggers. That's pretty much definition of a troll. He needs to be banned. I'd suggest - and ! on all of his posts.


I suspect most of us have him on "Ignore".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IceSlater:
Waiting to see what the 00z GFS has in store for that 2nd storm around 132 hours before calling it a night!


How do you see when the model is running? My site only shows them once they have been out for a while.

Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:




Call MUFON? :-)


War of the worlds?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oleClegs:



Come on, MAN. With all the low clouds - facing SE - lights comeing from the SW W. I wasnt there but = My money is on the fireworks from the amusement parks.

On topic 00z runs complete?

GFS at 54 right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:
Why in the world hasn't anyotherliestotell been banned yet mods? I mean he spouts off nonsense, doesn't talk about the weather. Lies repeatedly and trashes other bloggers. That's pretty much definition of a troll. He needs to be banned. I'd suggest - and ! on all of his posts.


It's all in the name...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BooYaKaSha:
I realize this is a bit off topic, but I'm stumped and very curious, so I thought I'd seek the opinions of the experts.

I’m in Orlando. About 8:00pm EST tonight I was sitting on my front porch (faces SE). There were some thunderstorms winding down in the distance in different directions – so there were the usual flashes of lighting every now and then.

Suddenly there was a series of flashes that looked to be off to my SW or W (my view was partially blocked by my building). It wasn’t the usual flash of lightning – this was a continuous 5-10 second sequence of several flashes of light that alternated RED and BLUE.

My first thought was how it looked a bit like a siren – but it lit up that whole section of the sky. The bottoms of the clouds were completely illuminated by the colored lights – as if it was either coming from below or from inside the clouds. No way it was an airplane or anything on the ground.

I’ve lived in Florida my whole life and never seen anything like that before. Did anyone else in the area happen to catch it? Any idea what that could be?

Thanks!
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
transformers blowing



Come on, MAN. With all the low clouds - facing SE - lights comeing from the SW W. I wasnt there but = My money is on the fireworks from the amusement parks.

On topic 00z runs complete?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Waiting to see what the 00z GFS has in store for that 2nd storm around 132 hours before calling it a night!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mara0921:


Well Fay was a moderate rain maker in broward. was much worse in central florida. Irene was much worse than the stats indicated. Lots of flooding. Some power outages. And it caught everyone by surprise. By the time they let us leave work it was on us pouring and everyone stuck in traffic.


Specific outcomes like that are impossible to predict. Some you win, some you loose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting BooYaKaSha:
I realize this is a bit off topic, but I'm stumped and very curious, so I thought I'd seek the opinions of the experts.

I’m in Orlando. About 8:00pm EST tonight I was sitting on my front porch (faces SE). There were some thunderstorms winding down in the distance in different directions – so there were the usual flashes of lighting every now and then.

Suddenly there was a series of flashes that looked to be off to my SW or W (my view was partially blocked by my building). It wasn’t the usual flash of lightning – this was a continuous 5-10 second sequence of several flashes of light that alternated RED and BLUE.

My first thought was how it looked a bit like a siren – but it lit up that whole section of the sky. The bottoms of the clouds were completely illuminated by the colored lights – as if it was either coming from below or from inside the clouds. No way it was an airplane or anything on the ground.

I’ve lived in Florida my whole life and never seen anything like that before. Did anyone else in the area happen to catch it? Any idea what that could be?

Thanks!



Call MUFON? :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
cat 1? lol. not at all.


I have a 3 year old and always prepare a category higher than what is forecast. I've been tracking hurricanes for 7 years now and know that a jump in intensity happens more often than not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


Official NHC final report from Miami international airport 68mph sustained with gusts to 90mph. Sweetwater WFO 67mph with gusts to 105mph. West Kendall 60mph with gusts to 82mph.Unofficial Doral CBS4 114mph gust

http://www.pdfdownload.org/pdf2html/view_online.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nws.noaa.gov%2Fos%2Fdata%2 Fpdfs%2FWilmaPSDA.pdf

OFFICIALLY, miami didn't get 100mph winds, BUT SOME areas around miami like sweet water got wind gusts above 100mph..

WILMA was a CAT 2 with 105MPH winds when it was near miami.



Well, it was a CAT3 at landfall in southwestern Florida at 120MPH. While she spent 4.5 hours over the peninsula, the storm barely dropped winds due to the wetlands of the everglades. In Jupiter, winds were recorded at 110MPH sustained as she entered the Atlantic. I don't have any instruments to record windspeed, but my insurance adjuster told me that nothing below 110-120MPH gust could have caused the damage that I had to repair to my home. Just saying, all estimates aside, that Wilma was the strongest storm that I've witnessed. Andrew did very little damage to northern dade by comparison....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


GFS @ 42 hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2166. NRAamy
Where's the chocolate cake?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2165. 7544
we could see floods like irene imo and if it stalls could be really bad leave the car at home take the truck lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2215 - 2165

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.