Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

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Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010 (LadyWriter)
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010

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Quoting KUEFC:


Right so because you know him well, that means he isnt wishcasting? hmm


It means I understand his motives. I've been here longer than you buddy. You don't have a snowball's chance in hell with this one.
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2414. 34chip
Quoting KoritheMan:


Very likely.
I think it's the next system we should be more concern about from what the models were showing. That could be our hurricane.
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2413. KUEFC
Quoting KoritheMan:


He's not. I know him well enough.


Right so because you know him well, that means he isnt wishcasting? hmm
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Quoting 34chip:
Looks like I will be under sometype of watch or warning later today in Key West.


Very likely.
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2411. 34chip
Quoting KoritheMan:


He's not. I know him well enough.
Looks like I will be under sometype of watch or warning later today in Key West.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Definitely a rare thing, but not unheard of. In the past 150 years or so, the northern Gulf coast (in this instance, from Florida's Big Bend area west to Houston) has been struck by 20 or so hurricanes on or after october first, and only eight of them have been major hurricanes at landfall or just before. If tropcal storms and depressions are included, however, there have been dozens, or roughly one every two years or so...obviously not rare at all. So as I said yesterday, while the northern Gulf threat is diminishing by the day, it's definitely not over...


Yeah, I agree. I did say that the threat for major hurricanes is practically over, barring any Hilda type events, which are unlikely.
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Quoting KUEFC:


Nice wishcasting.


He's not. I know him well enough.
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2408. KUEFC
Quoting ackee:
I think we will see another storms or two pop out of covenction in westrn carrbean this weekend into next week should be intresting too


Nice wishcasting.
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This just in:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280909
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEEDED FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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2405. 34chip
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
RADAR DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOWER 80S...AND WINDS ON
LAND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
ALOFT...A DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A CUTOFF LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH REACHES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF. RECENT MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GEIGER KEY GPS-
MET DATA INDICATE A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS...WITH PWATS AROUND 2.5 INCHES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE KEYS DURING THIS
TIME...WITH COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE KEYS. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS/KEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE LOW THEN PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT WE WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AS VERY
HIGH PWATS ARE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THESE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY LATER TODAY...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND LIKELY WEST TO CATEGORICAL
EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME...AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DRAGS
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE KEYS. WOULD NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO COOL OFF MUCH DUE TO THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS...BUT WE
SHOULD SEE A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT ENDING. FOR WED NIGHT...HAVE CUT BACK THE LIKELY POPS
TO EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH CHANCE OTHERWISE. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK/SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA...BUT IF THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURSDAY
COULD WELL TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
PERSISTENT DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD ALLOW A SERIES OF DISTANT CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGHS TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME...WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA...OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL LOWS WHICH MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. THERE IS NOW
SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL REGIME TO REDUCE POPS
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...A
VEERING OF THE FLOW REGIME TO NORTHEAST MAY ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO RE-ENTER OUR AREA...WITH ANY MAINLAND CONVECTION THAT
MIGHT DEVELOP LIKELY STEERED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE KEYS. THIS
POSSIBILITY COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WEATHER EFFECTS IN OUR AREA FROM ANY FURTHER CARIBBEAN LOW
DEVELOPMENTS WARRANT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AT THIS POINT.

DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER THAN WE HAVE OBSERVED RECENTLY
ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT C-MAN OBS AND A LATE EVENING ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
DRIFTS TOWARD CUBA. WILL POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CAUTION HEADLINES ELSEWHERE.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND POSSIBLY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...
AND IF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WINDS COULD BE HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE KEYS WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DECREASING
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY NORTHERLY
BREEZES TO PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NO
ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. SUSTAINED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT EYW AND MTH AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE HAVE PREVAILING
VCSH IN THE EYW AND MTH TAFS AND WE WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL SUSTAINED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FUTURE TAFS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO FL050 THROUGH SUNSET AT EYW AND MTH.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Climatology favors it, though. And this time of year, there's rarely any deviation from that.


Definitely a rare thing, but not unheard of. In the past 150 years or so, the northern Gulf coast (in this instance, from Florida's Big Bend area west to Houston) has been struck by 20 or so hurricanes on or after october first, and only eight of them have been major hurricanes at landfall or just before. If tropcal storms and depressions are included, however, there have been dozens, or roughly one every two years or so...obviously not rare at all. So as I said yesterday, while the northern Gulf threat is diminishing by the day, it's definitely not over...
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2403. BigToe
Quoting gordydunnot:
Look at this link, click on I at bottom map you will see what I am talking about. It's also got a lot of weather observations on each invest all in one spot I think you all will enjoy it.Link


Nice link!
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Hey Bahahurricane if you are still out there click on this link use bottom map click on pg150l. Not a good scenario for the Bahamas, looks like you win the rain contest hope you need some.Link
We don't need the rain, as it's been rainier than usual so far this month. However, we're not at saturation level - yet. I'm just hoping the low wind forecast bears out, because nobody here is expecting much more than a couple of rainy days tomorrow and Thursday.

Course, that's enough to flood out most of the local roads...
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2401. ackee
I think we will see another storms or two pop out of covenction in westrn carrbean this weekend into next week should be intresting too
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Hey Bahahurricane if you are still out there click on this link use bottom map click on pg150l. Not a good scenario for the Bahamas, looks like you win the rain contest hope you need some.Link
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
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Hi Guys, New baby in the house and the wind, rain and waves are keeping us up....

"Weather Cayman" is a great website for local weather stations - pressures dropping like mad here...

Right - back to bed for me!


http://s808.photobucket.com/albums/zz6/shansgonemad/?action=view┬Ąt=EastEnd.jpg
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Hey Reed at least you got a job that's better than a lot can say. Keep up the good work maintain a sense of humor I like reading everyone's post,if they can put up with me I can put up with them.Last time I checked this was a free country and in more than one way a free blog.Thanks, Doc.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting BahaHurican:
You're not wrong.

Given the comments tonight about SWly shear and much of the wx associated with this system staying "offshore", I find it interesting that this doesn't mention the NW Bahamas at all...

INTERESTS IN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...


Perhaps they expect it to move slower than the models are indicating?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I thought I've seen him andScottsvb arguing who is the better met. maybe they were arguing the virtues of a skilled met. My mistake.


It was the latter, I think. Don't sweat it. We all make mistakes.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall Reed ever claiming to be a met. Just a weather enthusiast.
You're not wrong.

Given the comments tonight about SWly shear and much of the wx associated with this system staying "offshore", I find it interesting that this doesn't mention the NW Bahamas at all...

INTERESTS IN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
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Pressure really dropping now ...

Please prepare for take-off.

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Quoting robert88:
AL, 96, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 191N, 850W, 30, 1003, LO

Surprised with 30KT winds this is not being upgraded to a TD :O)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
AL, 96, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 191N, 850W, 30, 1003, LO

posting this again, winds up to 35mph

Have a 1002mb reading in the caymans......pretty low.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You work at a grocery store? And your a met. Thats a plot for a movie.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall Reed ever claiming to be a met. Just a weather enthusiast.
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test
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Quoting robert88:
ECMWF has the PREDICT flight data collected today and it shows a sheared mess with all the worst weather offshore. This subtropical storm is going to be nothing. Time for bed.


Agreed. I see a 50 mph storm and nothing more. Vertical shear should inhibit development while in the Gulf and keep the nastiest weather confined to the eastern semicircle, ala Barry.
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ECMWF has the PREDICT flight data collected today and it shows a sheared mess with all the worst weather offshore. This subtropical storm is going to be nothing. Time for bed.
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If you look closely, you can see the mid level circulation, which has been spun off the tail end of this cold front. It's rare I've seen one of these clearly, in the embryonic stage like this.

Although convection is concentrated all over the area, pay careful attention to the circle of thunderstorms massing around this little spin.

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Link
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Link
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I was wondering if the stronger one will absorb the weaker one. The trof looks to blow by and then I think this system moves north.Kind of fits their time frame on their primary selected path.I guess we will know by this afternoon.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Canefever links with alot of WU's links!

http://www.canefever.com/links.php
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I am out too, night everyone
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7831
2377. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:
00Z ECMWF develops 2 more systems other than this one

however one is just north of the island and the other is in the CATL

both are heading west



Next week should be interesting to me with these systems gaining model support.

Well, I'm off, Night all!
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how odd would this be, a potential threat from the west in October?

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7831
Quoting gordydunnot:
Thanks Cirrocumulus have you seen the link I posted found it about two weeks ago on the CaneFever page. has called this invest even before anything else i have seen did.The track is scary carries right off Miami then reverse it back towards the Keys all is possible this time of year.Link



Did you see how the CMC shows 96L as a smaller storm and then AL15 as the stronger storm in Fla. in about four days?
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2374. mbjjm
good night all
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Quoting weatherboykris:



?


I like playing in the wind during hurricanes. lol

Crazy as it sounds, I did it for Gustav.
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Quoting reedzone:
I have to push carts for tomorrow and Wednesday nights.. Not liking the fact this storm comes through at those times. It's gonna be hard to get all them in with bursts of rain/wind.


Hey, just let the wind blow them inside. Less work for you, yet you still get paid. :)
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00Z ECMWF develops 2 more systems other than this one

however one is just north of the island and the other is in the CATL

both are heading west

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7831
Quoting KoritheMan:


:(



?
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Yeah, you play with the various options there and it's practically and all in one site between the upper and lower maps.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
I have to push carts for tomorrow and Wednesday nights.. Not liking the fact this storm comes through at those times. It's gonna be hard to get all them in with bursts of rain/wind.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I would be careful to say that, just because a front is coming down now, does not mean there will continue to be fronts to protect your area if there is another storm threatening


Climatology favors it, though. And this time of year, there's rarely any deviation from that.
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Quoting weatherboykris:



Aw come on. A weak storm can be a fun experience if you play it safe and don't do anything stupid like go surfing or playing in the wind. But, I understand your sentiment :)


:(
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2365. mbjjm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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