Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1304. NRAamy
AACCCKKK!!!! Now I'm blind in both eyes!!!!!!!!


Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
1303. Grothar
Quoting GrillinInTheEye:


Grother, I have to admit the German version is much better. Thanks you made the night.


Thank you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25488
Interesting area on belze radar near 19n,87w,also apparent. On rgb loop,nikki where are you???,lol
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Quoting Grothar:


You know German?


I remember bits and pieces. Long time ago. But the song was meant to be played in it's native tongue. I wish I could say I can converse with you in German. Flood's better there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You forgot the bubbles. LOL
Don Ho ??
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1299. NRAamy
How come Capt. Kirk in English is the same in German?
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Grothar:


The German version is much better. The English words didn't make much sense. I have the lyrics in German. Ein wunderbares Lied.

Link


Grother, I have to admit the German version is much better. Thanks you made the night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I must admit I thought it was going to be illegal slaughtering of Dolphins tonight but good game .On the weather front it appears you can take any model depicting TC formation and put it in the trash can this season or even man for that matter. Well back to the fin game someone's heart is going to be broken tonight but excellent game.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
1292. NRAamy
JF.....they call it Death Valley for a reason....

;)

Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting foggymyst:
is the 11pm in?
for what ?
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is the 11pm in?
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1286. Seastep
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Everyone should remember that this is an “entertainment” weather blog. This is not a place to come for official information if a storm is threatening your area.


Correct. It is to entertain other possibilities outside of the acceptable parameters.

Which does happen.

Thankfully Norcross didn't go with that. Well, at least for those that listened to him on Andrew.

Most did not.

Just saying.
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Quoting RainyEyes:
okay, okay...let me back up for a minute...I get that this is an "entertainment blog" and would NEVER trust this blog with my kids lives...as an example, if local mets said we had a hurricane with sites on my city I would take measures regardless of what ppl on here said BUT this time it is the local mets saying this is nothing more than a wet day basically. I am wondering if they are down playing it somewhat since Dr. Masters did mention the possibility of a few storms etc. It was just a question anyways.
go with your local NWS reports and maybe supplement with tv mets. keep in mind, tv mets are also a form of dramatics and entertainment, IMO.
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Look it that little bubble of deep convection between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verdes islands; it seems to be growing bigger - I wonder if it'll persist enough to be designated an invest tomorrow?
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1283. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I concur. The German version is much better. Love the bass line in that tune.


You know German?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25488
1281. scott39
Quoting RainyEyes:
okay, okay...let me back up for a minute...I get that this is an "entertainment blog" and would NEVER trust this blog with my kids lives...as an example, if local mets said we had a hurricane with sites on my city I would take measures regardless of what ppl on here said BUT this time it is the local mets saying this is nothing more than a wet day basically. I am wondering if they are down playing it somewhat since Dr. Masters did mention the possibility of a few storms etc. It was just a question anyways.
They will down play it until they cant. They dont want to alert peolpe until they need to.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
okay, okay...let me back up for a minute...I get that this is an "entertainment blog" and would NEVER trust this blog with my kids lives...as an example, if local mets said we had a hurricane with sites on my city I would take measures regardless of what ppl on here said BUT this time it is the local mets saying this is nothing more than a wet day basically. I am wondering if they are down playing it somewhat since Dr. Masters did mention the possibility of a few storms etc. It was just a question anyways.
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1277. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
I "fear" that the word my not get out in time. Really?? Try 30-40-50- years ago when you got 4 channels on a good day and a AM/FM radio to get your weather alert that a hurricane is coming, and you saw your neighbor boarding up thier windows and thought they wanted to keep the sunlight out. Now you have over 500 channels including the weather channel 24 hours a day,The Internet, with God knows how many ways to communicate, texting, The local emergency office sends out automatic warnings over the telephone(for folks like Grothar.) So I feel confident are awareness ia better than ever when it comes to an approaching TC.


I know, everytime that thing rings, I jump all over the place.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25488
Quoting Grothar:
Good night all. They are about to shut off the lights and put me to bed. Play nice and stay dry. I got a big day tomorrow. I learn how to string beads.
i thought mondays were sing alongs and bingo
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Quoting Grothar:


Always listen to your local news. At this time, just a copious amount of preciptitation is expected this week. A "possiblity" of a tropical storm or two. No one is sure yet. It is just that most models are in agreement that a series of tropical systems may form and go over South Florida and up the east coast.
Keep in mind it's a Sunday night....the so called fill in meteorologist is really a zoo keeper.

I would be prepared to be prepared.
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1274. NRAamy
What you mean, Geoff??!! OH MY GOD!!!!!! RUN TO THE WEATHER CHANNEL FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Grothar:


The German version is much better. The English words didn't make much sense. I have the lyrics in German. Ein wunderbares Lied.

Link


I concur. The German version is much better. Love the bass line in that tune.
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1272. cutt
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think all these models are full of (blank). Especially the long range GFS. The big one is always 12-14 days out. 2 weeks ago it had hits on every Gulf Coast City and a few East Coast ones by a big one, ie Matthew. Now it has 3 or 4 systems of varying strength zapping Fla over next 2 weeks. I am starting to think Fla is just going to get a big dump of rain. Anyway I am in a foul mood over that missed chip shot by Hartley.

YEP.
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1271. Grothar
Good night all. They are about to shut off the lights and put me to bed. Play nice and stay dry. I got a big day tomorrow. I learn how to string beads.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25488
1269. scott39
I "fear" that the word my not get out in time. Really?? Try 30-40-50- years ago when you got 4 channels on a good day and a AM/FM radio to get your weather alert that a hurricane is coming, and you saw your neighbor boarding up thier windows and thought they wanted to keep the sunlight out. Now you have over 500 channels including the weather channel 24 hours a day,The Internet, with God knows how many ways to communicate, texting, The local emergency office sends out automatic warnings over the telephone(for folks like Grothar.) So I feel confident are awareness ia better than ever when it comes to an approaching TC.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Let's check back in on the Doom:

The coming monsoon is apparently undercover by that pic(#1251). Sleeps by night. Perhaps this is normal.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5538
Whole View.... gunite blogya tmorow....

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1266. BDADUDE
Quoting RainyEyes:
Okay guys I am confused. The local news said that SWFL will be wet on wednesday and thursday but "definitely" not looking like it will be a tropical system...then they said once that moisture is out of the way we will settle into some drier weather that will usher in the fall season weather patterns (meaning lower rain chances and cooler weather) YET I read Dr. masters post that says we may have 3 systems moving over south florida in the next week? Can someone explain (with a decent amount of expertise) what I should expect here? I work, have kids in sports and have little time for last minute preperations which is what my gut instict is telling me will happen. That I wake up one day over the next couple of weeks to a chicken little book story? Thanks in advance.
Dont trust your kids lives with these dudes acegirl. Check your local weather mets.
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1265. Grothar
Quoting RainyEyes:
Okay guys I am confused. The local news said that SWFL will be wet on wednesday and thursday but "definitely" not looking like it will be a tropical system...then they said once that moisture is out of the way we will settle into some drier weather that will usher in the fall season weather patterns (meaning lower rain chances and cooler weather) YET I read Dr. masters post that says we may have 3 systems moving over south florida in the next week? Can someone explain (with a decent amount of expertise) what I should expect here? I work, have kids in sports and have little time for last minute preperations which is what my gut instict is telling me will happen. That I wake up one day over the next couple of weeks to a chicken little book story? Thanks in advance.


Always listen to your local news. At this time, just a copious amount of preciptitation is expected this week. A "possiblity" of a tropical storm or two. No one is sure yet. It is just that most models are in agreement that a series of tropical systems may form and go over South Florida and up the east coast.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25488
Quoting Clearwater1:
I'd go with your local mets.
gee, and I was just thinking she should follow the guidance on the blog....

sarcasm flag on

...not sure if I would follow local mets, especially those working on a sunday night. might want to follow the local NWS reports.
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Quoting beell:


It may be just right for most over 5 days time-if it's accurate.


Maybe for some but I don't need that much.
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1260. Seastep
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Let's check back in on the Doom:



Doom is looking pretty sickly on that, for sure.

Hope it stays that way.
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Quoting RainyEyes:
Okay guys I am confused. The local news said that SWFL will be wet on wednesday and thursday but "definitely" not looking like it will be a tropical system...then they said once that moisture is out of the way we will settle into some drier weather that will usher in the fall season weather patterns (meaning lower rain chances and cooler weather) YET I read Dr. masters post that says we may have 3 systems moving over south florida in the next week? Can someone explain (with a decent amount of expertise) what I should expect here? I work, have kids in sports and have little time for last minute preperations which is what my gut instict is telling me will happen. That I wake up one day over the next couple of weeks to a chicken little book story? Thanks in advance.


Follow your local forecasts...not what is posted on here.
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1258. will40
Quoting RainyEyes:
Okay guys I am confused. The local news said that SWFL will be wet on wednesday and thursday but "definitely" not looking like it will be a tropical system...then they said once that moisture is out of the way we will settle into some drier weather that will usher in the fall season weather patterns (meaning lower rain chances and cooler weather) YET I read Dr. masters post that says we may have 3 systems moving over south florida in the next week? Can someone explain (with a decent amount of expertise) what I should expect here? I work, have kids in sports and have little time for last minute preperations which is what my gut instict is telling me will happen. That I wake up one day over the next couple of weeks to a chicken little book story? Thanks in advance.


you need beel to post that graphic again of precip
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.