Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1358. scott39
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening mel Good to see you in here.

So is the W Carib so mucked up and confusing that everyone is in wait and watch mode?
I throw in the towel. I cant even act like I know what Im doing any more, because I cant even cheat off the experts on this one!
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Absolutely no info on the blog tonight. 99 red balloons, wth?


Blame Grothar.
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1355. beell
Quoting wxhatt:


Look at what NWS is putting out:

"THE 12Z MODELS ARE TENDING TO CONVERGE ON A
CLOSED SOUTHERN TROUGH SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVING NE ALONG A STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL SITUATION BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.


There ya go. And it is worth repeating: Stay tuned to your local NWS office for the best info.
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Music Videos, a courtesy of our MTV Wunderblog Observatory......Always doing the best to Observe the Monsoonal Trough Vorticity (MTV) in the caribbean....
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Quoting Grothar:


I think they were the Lennon sisters, but I see your point


Probably - I thought that, then thought I was thinking of John Lennon. What can I say - I was pretty young. (well, kinda young...)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
1352. NRAamy
Mel....i got into the pool, and it felt like the jacuzzi....

My cat looks like road kill....and i look like the hairball it coughed up....
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Evening mel Good to see you in here.

So is the W Carib so mucked up and confusing that everyone is in wait and watch mode?
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Absolutely no info on the blog tonight. 99 red balloons, wth?
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Quoting Grothar:


Just happen to have one.

Link

Why am I not surprised. :)
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1347. Patrap
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery


These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

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1346. Skyepony (Mod)
Mel~ I'm sure MEX is over hording all your rain. Hope the fire season isn't too bad for you..


The remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew dumped torrential rains on southern Mexico and much of Central America on Sunday, killing at least four people as it let loose floods and mudslides across the water-logged region. In El Salvador, a 32-year-old man was killed when he was swept away by a swollen
river, and another person was missing, authorities said.

In Mexico's southern Chiapas state, three Tzeltal Indians, two of them children, perished when their house collapsed during a heavy rainstorm.

"It happened late Sunday, when flood waters swept away a house and its three occupants," said Chilon town official Julian Hernandez.

Chiapas Civil Protection director Luis Manuel Garcia said Matthew caused heavy damage across the state.

"There are mudslides in eight municipalities... The worst damage is in Yajalon town, where 215 homes have been affected and around 1,000 families have moved to shelters," he said.
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NRA...please tell John Coleman to get someone to turn the heat down. A/C is not making any progress and it hasn't turned off in HOURS.

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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Say what you want - but the lovely Lemon sisters were hot.

I think you mean Lennon sisters.
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1343. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:

Where's that drum riff cymbal thing when you need it? Wonder if there is a German - Klingon dictionary!


Just happen to have one.

Link
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Quoting Patrap:


.."Try Not to Bruise it"...


Flex,Flex,flex,flex...flex


I love songs with a great "hook". Those are the ones you remember.
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1340. NRAamy
I'm right there with ya, Mel.....


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1339. Grothar
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Say what you want - but the lovely Lemon sisters were hot.


I think they were the Lennon sisters, but I see your point
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I know what the song means Vet.
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1337. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:
Relax (Don't Do It)

Frankie Goes To Hollywood,Fla ?


Oh, that's painful.
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1336. Patrap


.."Try Not to Bruise it"...


Flex,Flex,flex,flex...flex
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1335. wxhatt
Quoting beell:
The 00Z NAM showing a stronger trough with a bit more of a southward dig than in the 18Z GFS and earlier runs. And it looks like it will be over the area for...awhile.

Can't see where a pure tropical system would have much chance to stand up to the forecast wind shear.

However, the east coast of FL and points father N could be in for a strong 3-4 day coastal storm with strong S & SE winds as the gradient tightens up between ridging to the west and strong mid-Atlantic ridging off the east coast.

Some potential for trouble here-even if it does not have a name.


Look at what NWS is putting out:

"THE 12Z MODELS ARE TENDING TO CONVERGE ON A
CLOSED SOUTHERN TROUGH SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVING NE ALONG A STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL SITUATION BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who the hell cares about 99 red balloons?



Huh? Many have commented. Your point?
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Quoting Grothar:


You forgot the bubbles. LOL


Say what you want - but the lovely Lemon sisters were hot.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
1331. Skyepony (Mod)


PORTAGE,
Wis. — A levee along the Wisconsin River was failing Sunday,
flooding the access road leading to a park area and cutting off any
residents who did not heed daylong warnings to evacuate.It wasn't
clear how many of the roughly 300 residents remained in Blackhawk Park
around 4 p.m. Sunday when the road was closed after water started
leaking from the Caledonia Levee south of Highway 33. The levee had not
collapsed, but officials said enough water was coming through it that it
wasn't considered safe.

Read more: http://www.thestate.com/2010/09/26/1484191/officials-say-levee-failing-near.html#RSS=untracked#ixzz 10hHPeTtF
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I'm friggin HOT. Now mind you, I realize that I'm a middle aged woman and hot is a constant but today it was 86 at 9:30 or so in the morning. Temps were at 100 at 2pm. Our a/c, although it's working now, is not all that great. I hear it running and running but I'm not feeling the air keeping it icy cold like I did in GA. Half-ass ac/ here.

Beginning of fire season here and we have one burning already - saw it over the mountain as we were coming home. In Tecate Mexico but we live really close (like miss one exit on the freeway and you're in Mex). Hope everyone is prepared. We had a REALLY wet winter and a seriously dry summer.

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1329. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
Relax (Don't Do It)

Frankie Goes To Hollywood,Fla ?
I love 80s night!
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Quoting Grothar:


Thank you.


No I should be thanking you.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who the hell cares about 99 red balloons?

The missing,lonely 100th one.
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1326. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For Grothar:

Thats much better!
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1325. NRAamy
It's a one point game!!!!
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Who the hell cares about 99 red balloons?
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1323. Patrap
Relax (Don't Do It)

Frankie Goes To Hollywood,Fla ?
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1322. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For Grothar:



Thanks, Geoff, brings back a lot of memories.
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Have you seen this excerpt, or is it old news?

From NWS Miami, as of 7:19pm this evening:

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... THINGS GET WET AS THE FLOW FROM THE MID TO HIGH LVLS TURN SW AND LIFT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS S FL.

REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING IS A CONCERN AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE GREATLY UPPED IN THE SHIFTS TO COME.

Comments?

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1320. NRAamy
I got the song right!

:)

I remember watching Don Ho sing that song on TV....Merv Griffin show maybe....or Andy Williams...
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1319. Patrap
80's bad music flashbacks.

Ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww...
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Quoting Grothar:


Actually, you should hear "Klingon" in German. Can't tell the difference, really.

Where's that drum riff cymbal thing when you need it? Wonder if there is a German - Klingon dictionary!
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1317. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:


Nope, he sang Tiny Bubbles.


I told you I didn't know English in those days. LOL
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1316. beell
The 00Z NAM showing a stronger trough with a bit more of a southward dig than in the 18Z GFS and earlier runs. And it looks like it will be over the area for...awhile.

Can't see where a pure tropical system would have much chance to stand up to the forecast wind shear.

However, the east coast of FL and points father N could be in for a strong 3-4 day coastal storm with strong S & SE winds as the gradient tightens up between ridging to the west and strong mid-Atlantic ridging off the east coast.

Some potential for trouble here-even if it does not have a name.
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1315. Skyepony (Mod)
130 new record highs 49 tied across USA 9/25, 9/24..215 record 85 tied. The 23rd 166 with 67 tied.
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1311. NRAamy
Tiny bubbles
In the wine
Make me happy
Make me feel fine....
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Quoting hunkerdown:
for what ?
Tropical Outlook
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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