Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1408. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Ok, SJ, and Gro. They've made inroads, but so far the normal methods of eradication have proved successful. They are trying their little butts off, though. Going to have to eval. the extent of the infiltration. Got to go carefully, our dog is an inquisitive soul. Haven't seen any abnormal mounding or freakish behavior, yet. We'll keep our eyes firmly on them.

haha Where are you located?
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1406. flsky
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

What's the timing on this update??
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks Keeper, What is the computer sign for a tear drop?


:'(

or the more trendy

T_T

are two I know of
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
1404. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here grothar



Thanks Keeper, What is the computer sign for a tear drop?
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---
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Ok, SJ, and Gro. They've made inroads, but so far the normal methods of eradication have proved successful. They are trying their little butts off, though. Going to have to eval. the extent of the infiltration. Got to go carefully, our dog is an inquisitive soul. Haven't seen any abnormal mounding or freakish behavior, yet. We'll keep our eyes firmly on them.
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1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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1400. wxhatt
and unfortunately the Caribbean is loaded.

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1399. flsky
Quoting cmahan:


... well, so much for sleeping tonight. Or ever, really.

hates ants, haaaaaaates them, precious

What IS that???
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All we have now is a 10%. Let's see what happens. Until then...just enjoy the posts.
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1397. flsky
Quoting flasooner:


Frances: No power for more than two weeks, trees down, roads blocked for days, fence two-thirds down, Florida Room waterlogged, canal flooding up to my driveway.

Jeanne: Loss of power again just a couple of days after getting it back, rest of fence gone, garage door blown in, Florida Room again waterlogged with ceiling now starting to buckle. Not so many roads blocked this time because Frances had taken so many trees.

Both so shortly apart: No landline phone service restored until December. And this was '04 -- back when many more of us still relied on landlines.

I understand the point Ron5244 was making, and no, I don't see three coming our way over a ten-day period, we may simply be in for several days of heavy rain. However, I do know what I experienced back in '04 here in northern Palm Beach County. And it's not exactly unprecedented.

Know what you mean. I do housing inspections and was called back to FL three times that year.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
(on back-to-back storms in the same locale being 'unprecedented')may I introduce you to Jeanne and Frances


Frances: No power for more than two weeks, trees down, roads blocked for days, fence two-thirds down, Florida Room waterlogged, canal flooding up to my driveway.

Jeanne: Loss of power again just a couple of days after getting it back, rest of fence gone, garage door blown in, Florida Room again waterlogged with ceiling now starting to buckle. Not so many roads blocked this time because Frances had taken so many trees.

Both so shortly apart: No landline phone service restored until December. And this was '04 -- back when many more of us still relied on landlines.

I understand the point Ron5244 was making, and no, I don't see three coming our way over a ten-day period, we may simply be in for several days of heavy rain. However, I do know what I experienced back in '04 here in northern Palm Beach County. And it's not exactly unprecedented.
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1392. cmahan
Quoting BenBIogger:
Imagine seeing this in your driveway.


Link


... well, so much for sleeping tonight. Or ever, really.

hates ants, haaaaaaates them, precious
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Quoting BenBIogger:
Imagine seeing this in your driveway.


Link


Clockwise rotation? Must be a bad model run.
;-)
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Bobby "Boris" Pickett.
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1389. scott39
Quoting BenBIogger:
Imagine seeing this in your driveway.


Link
Thats freakin crazy!!
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1388. scott39
Quoting NRAamy:
Major mashed?

Monster mash!!!!


:)
October almost here--Yea I like Monster better.
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Imagine seeing this in your driveway.


Link
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
1386. NRAamy
Major mashed?

Monster mash!!!!


:)
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1385. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Want some ant news?


Are they building their mounds higher?
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1384. xcool


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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Want some ant news?


Of course, what you got?
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1382. Patrap
Quoting scott39:
Thanks Patrap, I didnt have this one yet.


Anytime..its da sharing that makes dis place special.

And I do mean special..

LOL
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Quoting StormJunkie:
00z GFS 36hrs out

Want some ant news?
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1380. scott39
Quoting Patrap:


Obligatory GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
Thanks Patrap, I didnt have this one yet.
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1379. Grothar
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Probably - I thought that, then thought I was thinking of John Lennon. What can I say - I was pretty young. (well, kinda young...)


Actually, everybody used to call them the Lemon Sisters. They would always make a joke about it and clarify it. They were even once introduced on another show (live) as the Lemon sisters.
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Fins lost.
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00z GFS 36hrs out

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1376. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Blame Grothar.


What, I am the only one who tries to keep this blog on tropical weather and somehow it just gets distracted.
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1375. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
842 PM CDT sun Sep 26 2010

Synopsis...
satellite and observational data show the strong upper level
cyclone and cold front moving south into the lower Mississippi
Valley. The cold front has pushed through southwest Mississippi
and is currently approaching areas from near Baton Rouge to
Franklinton to near Hattiesburg.


Short term...
the upper level storm system and cold front will continue to move
south and southeast tonight with the cold front pushing through
the coastal waters by daybreak on Monday. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of
the afternoon...then activity is expected to become more scattered
in advance of the cold front after sunset tonight. A few of the
storms have exhibited some elevated rotation and may produce a
funnel cloud or two...or an isolated waterspout near the coast and
over the coastal waters. Cooler and drier air will surge in behind
the front bringing the first significant change of airmass of this
fall season.


Clear and cooler nights and sunny and pleasantly warm days with
low humidity are expected on Monday through Tuesday. Many of the
northern/inland areas will see low temperatures in the middle 50s on
Monday night/Tuesday morning.


Long term...
will be watching for the possibility of tropical development over
the northwest Caribbean Sea by late Tuesday or Wednesday...however
the models have become stronger with the upper low/trough over the
area from Georgia the Florida Panhandle into the northeast/central
Gulf of Mexico. This means the central Gulf Coast will be very
protected from any tropical system.


North to northwest flow aloft and a continued resupply of dry
surface air will keep the skies mostly clear with no chance of
rain from Tuesday through next weekend. Temperatures will warm
slightly by Wednesday and Thursday...then start to cool down
slightly again towards the weekend.





22/dew point
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Get your hats off,,,,, special song, among best of the best...
Quoting Patrap:
..People say Im crazy,,doing what Im doing..
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1373. wxhatt
Quoting beell:


There ya go. And it is worth repeating: Stay tuned to your local NWS office for the best info.


Absolutely; good call though...
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1372. Grothar
Quoting weatherman12345:

john Lennon, smart man..... shot in the back, very tragic.


Good line, from a good movie. Brought me a lot of Independence.
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Quoting scott39:
I throw in the towel. I cant even act like I know what Im doing any more, because I cant even cheat off the experts on this one!


lol s39. I hear you on this one.

Mcluvvin...This is the reason that there is no "good info"...There's none to be had. The Carib is full of energy and disturbed weather, models are showing some sort of sts, std, td, or ts...Or if you want to look at the cmc, maybe a cane...in the general direction of Fla and up the E coast. Any reliable forecaster will be pulling out the "high uncertainty" card over the next day or two.
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1370. Patrap
Quoting flsky:

Please don't feel obliged. Most of us can find this on our own, thank you.



Youd think,,but hey,,its designed to enlighten ya..

Or would you rather a short,er,,"synopsis"..?
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Skye - This is our first year fully back and last year wasn't a big deal. We got a BUNCH of rain and it seems to me as though it was rather early. Never rmembered getting that much rain since (92?). NRa?

The fires in 2003 were BAD here in San Diego - remember standing on the lawn with the nieghbors and being told to leave. I worked for a city magazine at the time and after the fires, went out and photographed entire neighborhoods that were gone, our schools were cancelled but I will say that our stadium opened up (this was before Katrina) and folks just poured in to entertain kids, house folks that didn't have any place to go that were in danger of losing their homes...community support rolled in HUGE - water, food, bands, you name it.

When I lived in GA...people would burn things in their back yards. And it always flipped me out - if you smelled smoke, there was a fire and fire wasn't good. Ga was one thing, here is another. Now I smell smoke and I go out on the balcony (i can see mexico from my house) and do a 360 to see what it is.
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1368. xcool
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1366. scott39
Quoting PcolaDan:

Mainly because it's been beat to death, hashed, and rehashed.
Major Mashed
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1365. flsky
Quoting Patrap:


Obligatory GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean

Please don't feel obliged. Most of us can find this on our own, thank you.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all

Now this is a case of where covered made it better...



Nina had a good song...They just needed to have it refined.
And to think, my wife didn't know if she should put 99 out there. She has just admitted that I knew what I was about. Look how long the "peace" lasted. Hey, SJ! Hope the move went well.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Absolutely no info on the blog tonight. 99 red balloons, wth?

Mainly because it's been beat to death, hashed, and rehashed.
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I can't believe that divergence aloft is creating this pressure fall. It's like a can of soda that is in the process of being opened, after falling on the floor.

Is that an anticyclone over what was Matthew?
I'm confused by this monsoon.





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1359. 34chip
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
THEREAFTER WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE
ENTIRELY DETERMINED BY THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. WILL ADVERTISE CAUTION CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AND BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS
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1358. scott39
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening mel Good to see you in here.

So is the W Carib so mucked up and confusing that everyone is in wait and watch mode?
I throw in the towel. I cant even act like I know what Im doing any more, because I cant even cheat off the experts on this one!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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