Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1458. Grothar
Quoting flsky:
Quoting Grothar:


Now, your handle would indicate Florida sky, which means who have always been fascinated by cloud formations and sunrises and sunsets.

I live in ECF - moved here from LA,Ca. Anything "weather" fascinates" me after living in a place where there is none.


ECF, I would assume East Central Florida, probably somewhere near Volusia County?
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1457. xcool
lol gfs
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
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1455. NRAamy
Grothar!!! You are up past your bedtime!!!!!
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Big giant forecast for tonight I don't believe the NHC is going to be able to ignore system at 12n 35w much longer, last of the Cape Verde's.
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1453. JLPR2
I'm back!
While lurking earlier and seeing Grothar go completely off topic (:P LOL) I spilled a completely full glass of Snapple on my bed, (Don't ask why it was there). Ah, the mess! :S

48L looking happy
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1452. 7544
carb starting to light up we might see 96l at dmax tonight pick aspot dont go to bed yet
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Matthew remnants firing up.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
1450. hydrus
.
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1449. flsky
Quoting Grothar:


Now, your handle would indicate Florida sky, which means who have always been fascinated by cloud formations and sunrises and sunsets.

I live in ECF - moved here from LA,Ca. Anything "weather" fascinates" me after living in a place where there is none.
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1448. hydrus
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Quoting flsky:

Yep, but still in fog as to how this is going to play out.


Not to worry, no implosions to be feared. I did say thanks, for your input.
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1446. Grothar
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1445. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


You are on top of it. Hey sky, hope you're doing well.

Yep, but still in fog as to how this is going to play out.
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our newbie should be gone soon!
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1443. Grothar
Quoting flsky:

Oh yeah!!


LOL
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1442. Grothar
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Putting it together is the easy part. I got that down. Is there a trick you can share for remembering later where you put it, and/or what it's for?


No, but I am convinced someone sneaks in my house everyday and hides my car keys.
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1441. flsky
Quoting Grothar:


Now, your handle would indicate Florida sky, which means who have always been fascinated by cloud formations and sunrises and sunsets.

Oh yeah!!
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1440. Grothar
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1438. Grothar
Quoting dader:
Is Xcool or Grothar around to post the 0z run?


Now its scary, sure you want to see it?

GFS 72 hours.

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1437. flsky
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:

Face it. Everyone's having their adrenaline crash after watching and hyping Matthew, Julia Igor, et al. This is the crash phase, a rest period before the next OMG storms.

Have to admit I was freaked out a few times. I guess I'm always expecting the worst since I live in FL.
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RE: The Ants....stop reading now if you find the ant talk silly. .........Anyway, I find it kind of hard to believe that there's a monsoon coming......by the ant theory. In previous years we've had credible ant mound reports every year, about 10 per year. Now, most of the reports have turned out to false positives, but we did have a couple of hits.
.
.
With a monsoon coming you'd think that we'd be swarming with reports. But this has been a quiet year ant-wise.
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Quoting Grothar:


Working on codes most of life, I would assume that PSLFL would translate to Port St. Lucie, Florida and Cane Vet would mean he has been through a Hurricane. Since the Port St. Lucie area had two hurricanes 3 weeks apart a few years back, I just put it together in my head. Old people do that very well.


Putting it together is the easy part. I got that down. Is there a trick you can share for remembering later where you put it, and/or what it's for?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting CaribBoy:
while all eyes are on the WCARIB, a low in the CATL looks interesting. Some models develop it but not the GFS at first sight


00ZGFS is now trying to do something with it...
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1431. Grothar
Quoting flsky:

Maybe I've had too much wine tonight, but how do you deduce this?


Now, your handle would indicate Florida sky, which means who have always been fascinated by cloud formations and sunrises and sunsets.
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1430. flsky
Quoting Grothar:


Working on codes most of life, I would assume that PSLFL would translate to Port St. Lucie, Florida and Cane Vet would mean he has been through a Hurri1cane. Since the Port St. Lucie area had two hurricanes 3 weeks apart a few years back, I just put it together in my head. Old people do that very well.

Ok, I'm certainly a part of that group
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1429. dmaddox
evening gang! any model consensus tonight!? will the US see an October surprise!??
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Can I have a few +++?
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Quoting Grothar:


Working on codes most of life, I would assume that PSLFL would translate to Port St. Lucie, Florida and Cane Vet would mean he has been through a Hurricane. Since the Port St. Lucie area had two hurricanes 3 weeks apart a few years back, I just put it together in my head. Old people do that very well.


Gro, you are good.
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1425. dader
Is Xcool or Grothar around to post the 0z run?
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1423. Grothar
Quoting flsky:

Maybe I've had too much wine tonight, but how do you deduce this?


Working on codes most of life, I would assume that PSLFL would translate to Port St. Lucie, Florida and Cane Vet would mean he has been through a Hurricane. Since the Port St. Lucie area had two hurricanes 3 weeks apart a few years back, I just put it together in my head. Old people do that very well.
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1421. flsky
Quoting wxhatt:
and unfortunately the Caribbean is loaded.


What do you project???
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while all eyes are on the WCARIB, a low in the CATL looks interesting. Some models develop it but not the GFS at first sight
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Quoting Grothar:


From his handle, I would assume Port St. Lucie.


You are on top of it. Hey sky, hope you're doing well.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Watching my dog sleep is more enjoyable than most posts on here. Zzzzzzzzzz. Bedtime

Face it. Everyone's having their adrenaline crash after watching and hyping Matthew, Julia Igor, et al. This is the crash phase, a rest period before the next OMG storms.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
nice and pretty well organize little feature..
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1416. flsky
Quoting Grothar:


From his handle, I would assume Port St. Lucie.

Maybe I've had too much wine tonight, but how do you deduce this?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
All we have now is a 10%. Let's see what happens. Until then...just enjoy the posts.


Watching my dog sleep is more enjoyable than most posts on here. Zzzzzzzzzz. Bedtime
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks Captn, they may come in handy someday.


The first is more expressive IMO - hope you don't need them any them soon.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
1412. flsky
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Nothing yet in ECF as of 12:20 EDT
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1411. Grothar
Quoting flsky:

haha Where are you located?


From his handle, I would assume Port St. Lucie.
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1410. Skyepony (Mod)
mel~ fire weather is the worst.


Oracle~ I'm not seeing any anticyclone anywhere in or near the Caribbean.
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1409. Grothar
Quoting CaptnDan142:


:'(

or the more trendy

T_T

are two I know of


Thanks Captn, they may come in handy someday.
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1408. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Ok, SJ, and Gro. They've made inroads, but so far the normal methods of eradication have proved successful. They are trying their little butts off, though. Going to have to eval. the extent of the infiltration. Got to go carefully, our dog is an inquisitive soul. Haven't seen any abnormal mounding or freakish behavior, yet. We'll keep our eyes firmly on them.

haha Where are you located?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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