Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1508. 7544
wheres that gfs
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1507. xcool
huh 889 huhuhuh
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1506. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


PGI48L, CATL low, and no, that was the first glass in awhile!
*nose grows* LOL!


Keep that up and you will be drinking out of a bowl. LOL
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1504. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


No. Enlighten me, please.

Helicopters, jets etc, etc, in front of the Hilton, over the ocean on 10/9-10/10. Free parking in the structure or just park on the beach!
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"Ants have been a major factor in air conditioner failures. Service personnel in Texas have reported that fully one third of all summer repairs stem from ants shorting out terminal blocks. They also have been found to have set up housekeeping in televisions, well pump controls, telephone junction pedestals, airport runway lights, utility watthour meters, electrical plugs and lamp sockets, computers, and transformers-where they prefer to nest on the high-voltage side. Why are imported red fire ants attracted to electric fields? No one is yet ready to offer a theory. But biologist Dr. William P. MacKay of the University of Texas at El Paso and entomologist Professor S. Bradleigh Vinson of Texas A&M have succeeded in eliminating a number of possible factors.
They have found fire ant behavior does not correlate with a-c frequencies, or with the presence of ozone, electromagnetic or magnetic fields. Nor is the type of insulation used on wiring a factor. In tests up to 140V a-c and 350V d-c, both attracted almost the same number of ants at the same voltage and distance. However, they did find that when electricity was turned off, ants attracted to d-c power dispersed more rapidly than those who had been experiencing the nirvana of an a-c source. While the Texas researchers still don't understand the reasons why the ants have a fatal attraction to electric fields, they have been able to devise successful control techniques. Based on their studies, they recommend using terminal cap protectors to prevent bridging, and denying entrance to the insects by enclosing mechanical relays in metal or plastic cases and sealing them, as well as all entrances to padmounted equipment, with epoxy cement. In laboratory tests, silicone rubber sealants and roofing cement proved ineffective."

Conclusion - They want to reach NIRVANA
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1502. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
12N, 35W, You're correct, no shear maybe until 52W, if it persists..... What's your opinion???


It has the right ingredients along with some model support, but it is a very small feature and those tend to be fragile.
But could it develop? Yeah, sure...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1500. Grothar
Quoting swampliliy:



Hey Groth! :))

For you and I and any other seasoned citizens on tonight- the sixties Link


Yo, Swamp. That is a keeper!!! They'll never know how nice it really was, will they?
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1498. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


I think you have been drinking too much Snapple, what is 48L???


PGI48L, CATL low, and no, that was the first glass in awhile!
*nose grows* LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
The Bay of Campeche is starting to heat up as Matthew arrives.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
1496. xcool




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Quoting NRAamy:
Grothar!!! You are up past your bedtime!!!!!
it was time for an adult brief change
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1494. dmaddox
Quoting xXJasonisdumbmanXx:
piss, the GFDL is bombing out too 898! MB!
what are you talking about!?
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1493. flsky
Quoting xXJasonisdumbmanXx:


yes that mean you leave trash on your floor, cause my gf always leaves her pizza on my floor and it makes ans all over too...

Actually, no. I keep my balcony very clean - and even vacuum occasionally!
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Quoting xXJasonisdumbmanXx:
I don't know much about computer models, but I do know a lot about those beautiful blonde noweigan models!


BTW, I hope Nicole goes to Florida, so it can kill off all the weak minded down their.


people like you are the reason this blog has gone downhill recently. get a life
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Please, Don't feed the ants!
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Ants act up in tropical weather too Jason.

I have an electrical box on my water pump also they are attracted to. Somehow the spark from the relay attracts them I think.
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Interesting: Matthew exiting land into the Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
12N, 35W, You're correct, no shear maybe until 52W, if it persists..... What's your opinion???
Quoting JLPR2:


What's fighting wind shear?
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Quoting flsky:

Hope you know about the Embry-Riddle event coming up soon in front of the Ocean Center on the beach!


No. Enlighten me, please.
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Not 60's....but I know of their music.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10587
1484. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Love the big D. Up there many times for various racing events. The Rolex tests are our favorites. Better than the Cup tests. Of course, they don't test these days. At the Roar Before, you can get right in the garage area. Pit road too.

Hope you know about the Embry-Riddle event coming up soon in front of the Ocean Center on the beach!
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Quoting Grothar:


They let me stay up an hour later,



Hey Groth! :))

For you and I and any other seasoned citizens on tonight- the sixties Link
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1482. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm back!
While lurking earlier and seeing Grothar go completely off topic (:P LOL) I spilled a completely full glass of Snapple on my bed, (Don't ask why it was there). Ah, the mess! :S

48L looking happy


I think you have been drinking too much Snapple, what is 48L???
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1480. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Levi was on top of this scenario 2 days ago. It may make it to the BOC. Then what, is the 64 buck question. I hope it doesn't have the whole length of the GOM to build steam for FL, or elsewhere on the Gulf Coast.

Levi is an incredible source, isn't he?
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1478. 7544
make that 3 days out
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Quoting dader:
Thnx for posting grothar..I'm on my pda so can barely see Oz GFS- but it looks like a cat1 in sfla on thursday?


Absolutely…that’s why it is at 10% and the watches have been issued.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10587
Quoting flsky:

Daytona Beach Shores....


Love the big D. Up there many times for various racing events. The Rolex tests are our favorites. Better than the Cup tests. Of course, Cup doesn't test these days. At the Roar Before, you can get right in the garage area. Pit road, too.
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1475. Grothar
Quoting flsky:

Well, maybe. I live in ECF and ants have been showing up on my second floor balcony.


If you remove the cheese puffs, they usually go away on their own.
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1473. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Fighting windshear



What's fighting wind shear?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1472. flsky
Quoting 34chip:
I live in Key West, and we have ants in the house today does that mean something?? LOL

Possibly
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Matthew remnants moving into the Bay of Campeche.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
1469. Grothar
Quoting dader:
Thnx for posting grothar..I'm on my pda so can barely see Oz GFS- but it looks like a cat1 in sfla on thursday?


dader, if you hold the Ctrl button down and press the plus + key, the image gets bigger. To bring it back to normal size, hold the Ctrl key and hit the minus - button and it will go back to normal size. From your handle I assume you are from Dade County?
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1468. 7544
Quoting dader:
Thnx for posting grothar..I'm on my pda so can barely see Oz GFS- but it looks like a cat1 in sfla on thursday?


thursday hmmmm 2 days out and so fla doesnt know whats coming yet this thing has to be a rapid developemet system ?
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1467. flsky
Quoting dader:
Thnx for posting grothar..I'm on my pda so can barely see Oz GFS- but it looks like a cat1 in sfla on thursday?

Well, maybe. I live in ECF and ants have been showing up on my second floor balcony.
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Fighting windshear

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1465. Grothar
Quoting NRAamy:
Grothar!!! You are up past your bedtime!!!!!


They let me stay up an hour later,
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1464. flsky
Quoting Grothar:


ECF, I would assume East Central Florida, probably somewhere near Volusia County?

Daytona Beach Shores....
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1463. dader
Thnx for posting grothar..I'm on my pda so can barely see Oz GFS- but it looks like a cat1 in sfla on thursday?
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1462. 34chip
I live in Key West, and we have ants in the house today does that mean something?? LOL
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1461. dader
Thnx for posting grothar..I'm on my pda so can barely see Oz GFS- but it looks like a cat1 in sfla on thursday?
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1460. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


You are on top of it. Hey sky, hope you're doing well.

Well, just trying to keep up! hahA
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Quoting 7544:
carb starting to light up we might see 96l at dmax tonight pick aspot dont go to bed yet


Levi was on top of this scenario 2 days ago. It may make it to the BOC. Then what, is the 64 buck question. I hope it doesn't have the whole length of the GOM to build steam for FL, or elsewhere on the Gulf Coast.
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1458. Grothar
Quoting flsky:
Quoting Grothar:


Now, your handle would indicate Florida sky, which means who have always been fascinated by cloud formations and sunrises and sunsets.

I live in ECF - moved here from LA,Ca. Anything "weather" fascinates" me after living in a place where there is none.


ECF, I would assume East Central Florida, probably somewhere near Volusia County?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.