Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1558. mbjjm
Euro -Oper 0z

2nd system (shown East of the N. Leeward Islands) will move through the Caribbean before being darwn to the North to The Bahamas/ S.Fl as being shown on the cmc


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72F and over an inch of rain so far.

And just yesterday I was ready to replace all the shrubbery with cactus.

(Oops - forgot - That would be Panama City, FL)

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1556. xcool
hmm
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Good Evening Night Crew

This degree of uncertainty in the tropics is interesting in that there is so much potential but limited development. Strange and perplexing.

On another note, my neighbour came across the back lane to yell at a red squirrel, who was "treed" by one of our cats in our maple tree and was making a racket. After a time, the neighbour calmed down, and promptly went to her yard and started up the leaf blower. Is there something wrong here?

She also threatened to use her bow and arrow and told me that red squirrels taste better than the gray ones. Nice.

Just wanted to share. Carry on....

Oh right...we have been at the very top of the front that will affect the steering pattern perhaps, and it's been cold and rainy up here. Watching with interest.
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1554. JLPR2
Another area of spin has developed ahead of 48L, near 48W, 10N.

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1553. mbjjm
Nam 0z
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1552. boyzNme
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hate trolls that use other people's handles to make fun of them. Flagging every one. Asking admin to wipe other handles using that IP as well.

Just wrong.


flagged by me as well
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1550. mbjjm
The first system might be a tropuical storm , but the second storm could be worst



cmc showing the 2nd storms which moves throught the Central Carib, cross ECuba through the Bahamas and near South Florida.






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1548. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
that 10% is cmc storms






And nogaps and EURO XD
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1547. xcool
that 10% is cmc storms




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Well, heading to bed. I need sleep. Hope you all have a good night!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
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1543. boyzNme
Quoting flsky:

Hope you know about the Embry-Riddle event coming up soon in front of the Ocean Center on the beach!


Hey!! I'm a Riddle alumni. It sure has grown up since I graduated. I went to the homecoming about 5 yrs ago and couldn't believe how much it has changed. Hope you have fun!!!!
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Holy Smokes!

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Can someone post a link or a picture of current steering? TIA
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1540. dmaddox
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One can see the blowup in convection once Matthew moved offshore.
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That Tampa Bay weather info. says that the weak cold front is going to stall..... monday night..... Can we assume that N GOM waters are going to be less conductive to storm development because of that cold front interaction???
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up to 30% for our caribbean system

expect an invest soon

also 10% in the CATL
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
Quoting flsky:

Where are you located?
Port St. Lucie. Grothar was right on.
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1535. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Yeah, the Fly-in "Ranches" are getting popular in my neck of the woods too.

Where are you located?
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Quoting flsky:

I haven't been to an air show since I lived in CA.
In my area, there seems to be many. Locally, in Spruce Creek Fly In, people have hangars for their planes! Get buzzed quite often by these guys!


Yeah, the Fly-in's, are getting popular in my neck of the woods too.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1533. JRRP
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1531. xcool
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Quoting jonelu:



Wow, way to bring the heat. Can you call someone a name or something?
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1528. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Too cool! Not sure if my schedule will allow it. Would love to be there for that. Lucky you. I groove on air shows. Got a pic of an F-16, I shot in Stuart, FL. You should be able to see it, if you click on my handle.

I haven't been to an air show since I lived in CA.
In my area, there seems to be many. Locally, in Spruce Creek Fly In, people have hangars for their planes! Get buzzed quite often by these guys!
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ok, thanks
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ok, thanks
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1524. jonelu
bored....models are sooo aggressive...have been for almost a week now...and we got nada...So I came down to KW and its gorgeous.
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does anyone in here know if Tampa Bay is still at risk for anything? Or is this mostly confined to a south florida event?
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Quoting kshipre1:
is Tampa Bay even at risk for this upcoming system?


Florida is under risk of severe weather from the front passing through now. The remnants of Matthew and whatever is down there could be coming this way with development over the next several days also.

I haven't seen any real solid outlooks for the coming week. Best to keep checking.

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1521. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Keep that up and you will be drinking out of a bowl. LOL


XD
I should consider that if I'm close to the bed. LOL!
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1520. dmaddox
Quoting cirrocumulus:
05:01

matthew may come back for an encore...
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Quoting flsky:

Helicopters, jets etc, etc, in front of the Hilton, over the ocean on 10/9-10/10. Free parking in the structure or just park on the beach!


Too cool! Not sure if my schedule will allow it. Would love to be there for that. Lucky you. I groove on air shows. Got a pic of an F-16, I shot in Stuart, FL. You should be able to see it, if you click on my handle.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting sunlinepr:
"Ants have been a major factor in air conditioner failures. Service personnel in Texas have reported that fully one third of all summer repairs stem from ants shorting out terminal blocks. They also have been found to have set up housekeeping in televisions, well pump controls, telephone junction pedestals, airport runway lights, utility watthour meters, electrical plugs and lamp sockets, computers, and transformers-where they prefer to nest on the high-voltage side. Why are imported red fire ants attracted to electric fields? No one is yet ready to offer a theory. But biologist Dr. William P. MacKay of the University of Texas at El Paso and entomologist Professor S. Bradleigh Vinson of Texas A&M have succeeded in eliminating a number of possible factors.
They have found fire ant behavior does not correlate with a-c frequencies, or with the presence of ozone, electromagnetic or magnetic fields. Nor is the type of insulation used on wiring a factor. In tests up to 140V a-c and 350V d-c, both attracted almost the same number of ants at the same voltage and distance. However, they did find that when electricity was turned off, ants attracted to d-c power dispersed more rapidly than those who had been experiencing the nirvana of an a-c source. While the Texas researchers still don't understand the reasons why the ants have a fatal attraction to electric fields, they have been able to devise successful control techniques. Based on their studies, they recommend using terminal cap protectors to prevent bridging, and denying entrance to the insects by enclosing mechanical relays in metal or plastic cases and sealing them, as well as all entrances to padmounted equipment, with epoxy cement. In laboratory tests, silicone rubber sealants and roofing cement proved ineffective."

Conclusion - They want to reach NIRVANA



thats interesting. I had thought it odd over the years. It attacks carpenter ants as well as tiny sugar ants. Ill try to seal it better.
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1516. xcool
HA
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05:01

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seems like South Florida is getting all the attention. how strong is the trough supposed to be?
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Lets just start hitin that (!) button.
Should solve the problem!
Quoting xcool:
in moon
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is Tampa Bay even at risk for this upcoming system?
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1505. xXJasonisdumbmanXx 5:08 AM GMT on September 27, 2010

889? LMAO

um no it shows up as 985mb, still pretty strong though
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1510. xcool
in moon
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1508. 7544
wheres that gfs
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.