Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1558 - 1508

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

1558. mbjjm
Euro -Oper 0z

2nd system (shown East of the N. Leeward Islands) will move through the Caribbean before being darwn to the North to The Bahamas/ S.Fl as being shown on the cmc


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
72F and over an inch of rain so far.

And just yesterday I was ready to replace all the shrubbery with cactus.

(Oops - forgot - That would be Panama City, FL)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1556. xcool
hmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening Night Crew

This degree of uncertainty in the tropics is interesting in that there is so much potential but limited development. Strange and perplexing.

On another note, my neighbour came across the back lane to yell at a red squirrel, who was "treed" by one of our cats in our maple tree and was making a racket. After a time, the neighbour calmed down, and promptly went to her yard and started up the leaf blower. Is there something wrong here?

She also threatened to use her bow and arrow and told me that red squirrels taste better than the gray ones. Nice.

Just wanted to share. Carry on....

Oh right...we have been at the very top of the front that will affect the steering pattern perhaps, and it's been cold and rainy up here. Watching with interest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1554. JLPR2
Another area of spin has developed ahead of 48L, near 48W, 10N.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1553. mbjjm
Nam 0z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1552. boyzNme
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hate trolls that use other people's handles to make fun of them. Flagging every one. Asking admin to wipe other handles using that IP as well.

Just wrong.


flagged by me as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1550. mbjjm
The first system might be a tropuical storm , but the second storm could be worst



cmc showing the 2nd storms which moves throught the Central Carib, cross ECuba through the Bahamas and near South Florida.






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1548. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
that 10% is cmc storms






And nogaps and EURO XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1547. xcool
that 10% is cmc storms




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, heading to bed. I need sleep. Hope you all have a good night!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1543. boyzNme
Quoting flsky:

Hope you know about the Embry-Riddle event coming up soon in front of the Ocean Center on the beach!


Hey!! I'm a Riddle alumni. It sure has grown up since I graduated. I went to the homecoming about 5 yrs ago and couldn't believe how much it has changed. Hope you have fun!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Holy Smokes!

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Can someone post a link or a picture of current steering? TIA
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
1540. dmaddox
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One can see the blowup in convection once Matthew moved offshore.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
That Tampa Bay weather info. says that the weak cold front is going to stall..... monday night..... Can we assume that N GOM waters are going to be less conductive to storm development because of that cold front interaction???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
up to 30% for our caribbean system

expect an invest soon

also 10% in the CATL
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting flsky:

Where are you located?
Port St. Lucie. Grothar was right on.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1535. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Yeah, the Fly-in "Ranches" are getting popular in my neck of the woods too.

Where are you located?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flsky:

I haven't been to an air show since I lived in CA.
In my area, there seems to be many. Locally, in Spruce Creek Fly In, people have hangars for their planes! Get buzzed quite often by these guys!


Yeah, the Fly-in's, are getting popular in my neck of the woods too.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1533. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1531. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jonelu:



Wow, way to bring the heat. Can you call someone a name or something?
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1528. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Too cool! Not sure if my schedule will allow it. Would love to be there for that. Lucky you. I groove on air shows. Got a pic of an F-16, I shot in Stuart, FL. You should be able to see it, if you click on my handle.

I haven't been to an air show since I lived in CA.
In my area, there seems to be many. Locally, in Spruce Creek Fly In, people have hangars for their planes! Get buzzed quite often by these guys!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok, thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok, thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1524. jonelu
bored....models are sooo aggressive...have been for almost a week now...and we got nada...So I came down to KW and its gorgeous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
does anyone in here know if Tampa Bay is still at risk for anything? Or is this mostly confined to a south florida event?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1521. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Keep that up and you will be drinking out of a bowl. LOL


XD
I should consider that if I'm close to the bed. LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1520. dmaddox
Quoting cirrocumulus:
05:01

matthew may come back for an encore...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flsky:

Helicopters, jets etc, etc, in front of the Hilton, over the ocean on 10/9-10/10. Free parking in the structure or just park on the beach!


Too cool! Not sure if my schedule will allow it. Would love to be there for that. Lucky you. I groove on air shows. Got a pic of an F-16, I shot in Stuart, FL. You should be able to see it, if you click on my handle.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1516. xcool
HA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
05:01

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
seems like South Florida is getting all the attention. how strong is the trough supposed to be?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets just start hitin that (!) button.
Should solve the problem!
Quoting xcool:
in moon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is Tampa Bay even at risk for this upcoming system?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1505. xXJasonisdumbmanXx 5:08 AM GMT on September 27, 2010

889? LMAO

um no it shows up as 985mb, still pretty strong though
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1510. xcool
in moon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1508. 7544
wheres that gfs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1558 - 1508

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.