Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Is it my imagination or is there some sort of circulation starting at approx 29Lat 54Lon? I am a real novice at reading this stuff, but noticed it when I was looking at what's left of Lisa on the NOAA Central Atlantic loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html.
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Closest fradar to the area, Belize and Cancun radar not picking up much

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wind just shifted out of the NW in Lake Charles and it's cooler and a bit dryer

problem is, we barely, and I do mean barely, got a trace of rainfall, at least over my home

so dry but I'll take that over a hurricane any day
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Quoting PcolaDan:

More useful than coming out of nowhere and b$tching about it without any real input.


Not really 'out of nowhere'... You know who that is...
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Looks like we should pay attention to the area of convergence at 15N 80W.

This could be Dr MasterĀ“s SLEEPING GIANT
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52. 7544
this may fool us it has a llc and could develope fast and maybe just go right to nicole latter tonight by 11pm looks to be heading that way
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting doubtit:
WOW!!!! Copy and paste, copy and paste, are you KIDDING? How is posting what the NHC says useful to anyone?


because in the end the NHC is the final word and of the most knowledge, they have the best information. Posting something from the NHC is actually the most useful thing that can be posted here. I am very surprised someone would take the time to complain about that, tells me a lot about you.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


You Should Pay Attention when 4 Reliable Models have Almost the Same Identical Track.


First landfall is in what, 3 days? NHC saying 10% and nada for 48 hours...

This year is kinda making me wonder about how we define 'reliable' as it pertains to models. Seriously... Look at the past couple of weeks.

Not saying it can't happen, either the models or the NHC is wrong. Up to us to decide which it is and act accordingly - but in the end, it all comes down to wait and see, doesn't it?
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Quoting IKE:


Cooler and drier.


Hopefully this doesn't continue into the dry season.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:


thanks Cirro

So there's basically quite a bit of shear sitting out there right now. Until that calms down a bit, formation could be tough.

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Quoting CaptnDan142:
With the way things have gone so far, I have to wonder - are the models a bit confused because they are working outside their normal parameters with all the heat etc.? They keep coming up with system after system, and yes they do come into agreement sometimes, but they are getting it wrong - and they don't stick with a solution for very long.

Just seems like the models are seeing more potential than they know what to do with.


I agree.
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Quoting doubtit:
WOW!!!! Copy and paste, copy and paste, are you KIDDING? How is posting what the NHC says useful to anyone?


Maybe because they usually have it pretty close to right?

:-)
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Two systems is what the GFS is predicting, but I was only talking about the first one. It has it strung out from Fla to SC at one point. This is where it puts three vort centers along it. The second feature is still a ways out, so other than looking for consistency in genesis; I'm not paying it much mind yet.

Hey, SJ...are we going to break this dry spell?
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CMC 12Z run September 26
Shows crazy week for Eastern Seaboard.

Wed 1pm





Wed 10pm



Thursday 1pm



Friday 1am



Friday Oct 1, 7am



Friday 7pm

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With the way things have gone so far, I have to wonder - are the models a bit confused because they are working outside their normal parameters with all the heat etc.? They keep coming up with system after system, and yes they do come into agreement sometimes, but they are getting it wrong - and they don't stick with a solution for very long.

Just seems like the models are seeing more potential than they know what to do with.
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Glad to here the much anticipated western Caribbean/FL TC will not be a monster like the models have been showing and trying to scare us.
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WOW!!!! Copy and paste, copy and paste, are you KIDDING? How is posting what the NHC says useful to anyone?
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36. 7544
so if the nam is right for cane on tip of so fla on wends then watches should go up latter tonight a 11pm or early monday morning . but its not even a invest yet that will give people less than 36 hours to get ready im confused now lol this has to develope rapidly for the nam to be right correct . ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
35. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:


Hey Ike,

Looks like you might be getting some cool weather next week.


Cooler and drier.
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theres some surface convergence south of the mid level low..

Vortocity is increasing in that area

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Hey Get any good waves this year?

Nope, NADA -nothing even close to memorable...but it ain't over yet obviously --always the fine line of "Be careful what you wish for"
Finally got enough personal clearance in life to plan a trip to the other side -- and now my backyard is starting to look like an incubator....que sera sera
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting IKE:
...10 PERCENT......so much for a higher pct.


Hey Ike,

Looks like you might be getting some cool weather next week.
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Model Diagnostic Discussion

Excerpt:

CONSIDERING THAT THIS LOW IS JUST BEGINNING TO FORM...AND THERE IS CURRENTLY NOTHING RESEMBLING A STRONGLY CONVECTIVE LOW IN THIS AREA...THINK THE NAM/CANADIAN ARE MUCH TOO QUICK TO MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IT IS DISCONCERTING THAT THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNANIMOUS THUS FAR IN MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
BETTER FIT THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING FOR THE TIME BEING...AND WHAT WAS AGREED UPON DURING THE 16Z COORDINATION CALL
WITH NHC. THIS CHOICE IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SHIFTS SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
MH09, from the previous blog, I just need one more clarification and then I'll try and not stretch your patience any more today.

Going back to the current CIMMS shear map, there is a yellow circle with a 30 embedded in the circle. Does this mean there are 30 knots of shear within that entire circle? If so, and that circle lays over a good portion of the NHC 10 percent area, then could that be part of the reason they give only a 10 percent chance for development right now.

I know it can/will change and I know you said 5-20 knots(which is part of my confusion because it differs from the way I read the CIMMS shear map).

Sincerely appreciate the help.
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Quoting InTheCone:
re-post

My personal take is that this will get tagged as an invest by tonight sometime so that models can be initialized and more attention can be focused on this.

There isn't going to be much time for people to prepare should that need arise, and as an invest people will pay more attention - plus the news people will have something to focus on.

Just my opinion.
I think you are right on the money.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
see even they are saying nothing for at least 2 days...even starting to form.
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Well, looks as if this will be one of the less popular TWO's...
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Nicole forming?

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18. IKE
...10 PERCENT......so much for a higher pct.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
These people are insane !!!


?
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Looks like we have a new area of disturbed weather slowly coming together in the W Caribbean Sea. Matthew has done a number on the people of Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Mexico, with reports of flooding, landslides and over 46 deaths. My prayers go out to them in that area. The NHC stated that 10-20 inches widespread is expected with isolated 30 inch amounts as storm totals through today.
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These people are insane !!!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MATTHEW...WHICH HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW INLAND
ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO.

A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 261731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MATTHEW...WHICH HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW INLAND
ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO.

A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
20MInutes and counting for the next TWO


can you guys post that close up visible of potential 96L that showed the mid level low?
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


At the end of the day, I think it will be one system then another a week out. GFS is having a hard time dealing with the heat and thus produces several lows in response. My take on things if you don't mind.

Things should become more clear starting tonight and moreso on Monday, IMO.


Two systems is what the GFS is predicting, but I was only talking about the first one. It has it strung out from Fla to SC at one point. This is where it puts three vort centers along it. The second feature is still a ways out, so other than looking for consistency in genesis; I'm not paying it much mind yet.
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Thanks Doc.

Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all



What's your take on the first system the GFS is showing. It keeps it very frontal looking with multiple vort centers. Not sure what to make of it.
Good afternoon SJ.

It gets picked up by a shortwave trough so, dry air will follow the trough. You can tell that the model sees this because the entire western semicircle of this system seems rather convection-less and dry while the eastern semicircle is more moist. Looks to turn non-tropical in about 96 hours.



I just think that the GFS is having a hard time bundling all the heat, so it just splits it up into multiple systems.
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re-post

My personal take is that this will get tagged as an invest by tonight sometime so that models can be initialized and more attention can be focused on this.

There isn't going to be much time for people to prepare should that need arise, and as an invest people will pay more attention - plus the news people will have something to focus on.

Just my opinion.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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