Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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It is going to take a while for that mess to consolidate. I don't see much organization. No way the NHC should have increased the %

""
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Although I do believe that development will occur during the next 48 hours, the NHC apparently does not.

The NHC actually kinda cheats... they change their prediction percentage two or three times a day when a system starts to develop. By tonight it could easily be a 50% chance. Tomorrow morning 80% and they would still be right. They never really state whether a system will ever develop, just a percentage inside of 48 hours.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Intensity is the hardest thing to forecast...but who would you have us trust over the NHC...on intensity, track, formation, and anything else relating to tropical cyclones.


Echo that here
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12z ECMWF out to 108 on StormVista.

Nothing special at all.

Broad low along a front.

Far from the doom and gloom it had last week.
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:
Does Levi post his weather update on Sundays? And if so did I miss it? TIA


I do not know but you can go to his past blogs and see if there are Sunday posts. Hope that helps.

:-)
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NHC TAFB graphical forecast.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


September 4th-6th

Right after Gaston and right before Hermine.


From that wikipedia article you posted:

Since August 21, there has not been a single full day without at least one storm active for a total of 35 days, the longest period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 to October 12, 2002.
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99. 7544
Quoting InTheCone:
12z HWRF on Matthew, seems strange that it is still running. Shows a large low pressure area near Cuba on Fri./Sat.


add this one to the list lol
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


September 4th-6th

Right after Gaston and right before Hermine.


Earl was around until the 5th, Hermine formed on the 6th
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96. 7544
96l and 97l soon maybe ?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Since August 21st


September 4th-6th

Right after Gaston and right before Hermine.
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12z HWRF on Matthew, seems strange that it is still running. Shows a large low pressure area near Cuba on Fri./Sat.
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92. IKE
72 hours...ECMWF......

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Quoting weatherman12345:
MH09, why do you thing the NHC left it at 10%
The percentage the NHC gives it will not affect whether or not the cyclone will develop or not, so I'm not paying to much attention to it. One reason is that the system is quite broad and large, and those type of systems take their time to develop. Although I do believe that development will occur during the next 48 hours, the NHC apparently does not.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like tomorrow we'll have our first day without a named storm in a while.

Since September 2nd I believe.


Since September 5th without a name, but advisories have been issued everyday since August 21st
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Thanks, I'd forgotten Julia was ever out there!!!
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Looks like tomorrow we'll have our first day without a named storm in a while.

Since September 2nd I believe.
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i may be wrong but i dont ever remember the NHC saying something like a certain model is developing something. I have seen mention of track before but dont think developement.
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Quoting jrweatherman:


You really want to trust the NHC on forcasting storm intensity? I don't think so.
Intensity is the hardest thing to forecast...but who would you have us trust over the NHC...on intensity, track, formation, and anything else relating to tropical cyclones.
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Does Levi post his weather update on Sundays? And if so did I miss it? TIA
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82. IKE
24 hour ECMWF...



48 hours...

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81. 7544
Quoting Hurricanes101:


when does it develop the system though? plus that is 1 model run of 1 model


nope its been showing this everyday

and now the nam show s a cane over so fla on wends too but this might be too early it hasnt form yet lol
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Quoting IKE:
Here's the NHC marine forecast and you can see what they think for the next 6 days...looks like the lowest pressure is 1000 mb's...Link


You really want to trust the NHC on forcasting storm intensity? I don't think so.
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Quoting Dakster:
SammyWammyBammy - Can you find a model that DOESN'T show South Florida getting something?


The FIM and maybe the Ukmet.
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75. IKE
Here's the NHC marine forecast and you can see what they think for the next 6 days...looks like the lowest pressure is 1000 mb's...Link
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Nicole forming?

....this was 100% expected by myself last night,I tweeted tyhat a new low was forming over hondurus and should move north of hondurus today and stall,I expect a new invest tonight or tomorrow morning!!!!!
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Quoting weatherman12345:

um cmc shows a hurricane over south florida on wed. at 1 pm


when does it develop the system though? plus that is 1 model run of 1 model
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


why are they not buying it? You do realize the TWO is for the next 48 hours only right?

How many of the models develop the system before 2pm Tuesday?
All of them.
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Quoting mbjjm:
CMC 12Z run September 26
Shows crazy week for Eastern Seaboard.

Wed 1pm





Wed 10pm



Thursday 1pm



Friday 1am



Friday Oct 1, 7am



Friday 7pm

Want to see crazy? The NOGAPS has 4 or 5 systems out in the Atlantic Basin at once....Link
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Quoting beell:
Pretty ugly upper level conditions from the BOC, NE across FL and on up the east coast from Mid week on into next weekend. The Caribbean is somewhat more tranquil.

Strong upper trough setting up shop over the region.


Can you move that down further south, say to the Florida Straits? :-)
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Quoting Dakster:
SammyWammyBammy - Can you find a model that DOESN'T show South Florida getting something?


=/ You Dont Get it.

Im Not saying Florida = DOOM.

I am Pointing 4 Reliable Models.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

I agree


why are they not buying it? You do realize the TWO is for the next 48 hours only right?

How many of the models develop the system before 2pm Tuesday?
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Quoting CaneGurl:
Is it my imagination or is there some sort of circulation starting at approx 29Lat 54Lon? I am a real novice at reading this stuff, but noticed it when I was looking at what's left of Lisa on the NOAA Central Atlantic loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html.


the area at 29 54 is what is left of Julia, you are not dreaming
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SammyWammyBammy - Can you find a model that DOESN'T show South Florida getting something?
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Quoting weatherman12345:

well, the nhc gets its info from comp models and observations.


Precisely. They are seeing the same models that the folks here are seeing. Difference is, for some reason, they aren't buying into it. Sure would be nice to be privy to their discussions while writing the TWO.
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Pretty ugly upper level conditions from the BOC, NE across FL and on up the east coast from Mid week on into next weekend. The Caribbean is somewhat more tranquil.

Strong upper trough setting up shop over the region.
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Is it my imagination or is there some sort of circulation starting at approx 29Lat 54Lon? I am a real novice at reading this stuff, but noticed it when I was looking at what's left of Lisa on the NOAA Central Atlantic loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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