Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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The operative words for the vorticity in the NW Caribbean are slow development. Until the ULL moves and the moderate shear is reduced , that area will be on hold for much significant development.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


There will be plenty of time for this to develop. It will be a stationary area of low pressure over some of the highest TCHP and SSTs on the planet.


I am confused

how can it on one hand have plenty of time to develop; yet on the other hand many in here are screaming at the NHC for not having this higher than 10% because some models have it developing in the next 2 days and hitting S Florida on day 3?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


There will be plenty of time for this to develop. It will be a stationary area of low pressure over some of the highest TCHP and SSTs on the planet.


Time seems to have stopped waiting for this game!
Can't wait hope I am not waiting yet again for a big let down.
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The rainfall will likely happen in a band from the northern Yucatan into the Tampa Bay area. The areas in the map will likely start to fill in soon due to climatology and averages.
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:


Seems at the moment there will not be enough time for it to develop. I have a feeling we will be hearing 7 to 10 days again


There will be plenty of time for this to develop. It will be a stationary area of low pressure over some of the highest TCHP and SSTs on the planet.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


How's that "cheating"? As time goes by and the odds of a particular storm developing increase, should the NHC not up their odds? I'm not sure how else they could do it...


Bingo! I agree.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Just goes to show how complex this type of genesis is, while the models show 'something', they're bound to bounce around.

Still fairly confident that a low pressure area will develop in the Caribbean sometime in the next 48 hours, whether or not its a named storm remains to be seen.


Seems at the moment there will not be enough time for it to develop. I have a feeling we will be hearing 7 to 10 days again
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:


Sorry new at this I am not sure how to get there without clicking on his name in the blog.
At the top of the page there is a link that says member blogs. Click on that and scroll down until you find his name.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The primary one that everyone is focused on.


That's my point. I was looking at the 12Z GFS and it showed four different lows sweeping out of this one currently disorganized mess. I don't get how anyone can be convinced, right now, about much of anything. That applies to those who believe there will be formation and those who don't, much less intensity.

:-)
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Just goes to show how complex this type of genesis is, while the models show 'something', they're bound to bounce around.

Still fairly confident that a low pressure area will develop in the Caribbean sometime in the next 48 hours, whether or not its a named storm remains to be seen.
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You can see the center of the swirl.
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This is probably the most aggressive run I've seen today.

12z CMC

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145. Skyepony (Mod)
LBAR By far bested the rest of the models on Matthew..24hrs error 58nm, 48hr 60.4, 72hrs 92.5, 96hrs 272.6 & at 5 days 326.4.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I suppose it's true there have been no full calendar days without at least a depression...but there has been one full calendar day in that span with no named storm: September 5th.

September 5th, 11PM... Hermine "formed"... It's sort of splitting hairs, though, to be honest..
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Quoting WildWillyFL:

The NHC actually kinda cheats... they change their prediction percentage two or three times a day when a system starts to develop. By tonight it could easily be a 50% chance. Tomorrow morning 80% and they would still be right. They never really state whether a system will ever develop, just a percentage inside of 48 hours.


How's that "cheating"? As time goes by and the odds of a particular storm developing increase, should the NHC not up their odds? I'm not sure how else they could do it...
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Quoting hurricane23:


Even though surface pressures are rather low in the vicinity things still look rather disorganized. Long way before this becomes a significant TC.should amount to a good fetch of tropical mositure heading northward towards SFL out of the NW caribbean sea.

Dont buy the multiple lows on the GFS likely convective issues.


What did you think about the current ECMWF run?
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141. IKE
Quoting weatherman12345:

this has not been consistant at all though


ECMWF has.

Day 7 ECMWF...significant trough in the east...

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what is also intresting is the remnants of julia continue to build convection redevelopment ???
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Quoting swlaaggie:


Which one? there are several pulses of energy that sweep out of this over the next week


The primary one that everyone is focused on.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


because in the end the NHC is the final word and of the most knowledge, they have the best information. Posting something from the NHC is actually the most useful thing that can be posted here. I am very surprised someone would take the time to complain about that, tells me a lot about you.


Except they were changing the track forecast on Matthew quite a lot because of the models being in disagreement. They went with a hypothesis every six hours that was off and on.
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Quoting goldenpixie1:


Link

Levi's blog


:) Thank you
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:


Sorry new at this I am not sure how to get there without clicking on his name in the blog.


Go to the bottom of this page, click on the "Blog Index", once yourn there scroll down and find Levi32 and select his blog. Levi32 normally does not do a video on Sunday.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


From that wikipedia article you posted:

Since August 21, there has not been a single full day without at least one storm active for a total of 35 days, the longest period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 to October 12, 2002.


I suppose it's true there have been no full calendar days without at least a depression...but there has been one full calendar day in that span with no named storm: September 5th.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
If this is ever able to consolidate, I doubt it would be stronger than a minimal tropical storm.



Even though surface pressures are rather low in the vicinity things still look rather disorganized. Long way before this becomes a significant TC.should amount to a good fetch of tropical mositure heading northward towards SFL out of the NW caribbean sea.

Dont buy the multiple lows on the GFS likely convective issues.
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Ok got it Swla and Newbdo thanks :)
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131. IKE
Day 4 ECMWF...weakens a low from 1001 to 1003 mb's...Link

Day 5...



Day 6...

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:



The ECMWF and GFS show this getting caught up with the front and becoming non-tropical as it crosses Florida.


Which one? there are several pulses of energy that sweep out of this over the next week
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Quoting swlaaggie:


Even better instructions, thanks


Link

Levi's blog
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Quoting weatherman12345:
models dont handle the intensity well. at least we have a pretty good idea on were its going though...


Well, they pretty much nailed Matthew 48 hours before it formed.
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Quoting swlaaggie:


Hope you are correct but, more interestingly, why do you believe this?



The ECMWF and GFS show this getting caught up with the front and becoming non-tropical as it crosses Florida.
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Quoting NewBdoBdo:
Tropical weather girl...go to the top of the page a see Member blogs, Select that and you will find Levi23's blog


Even better instructions, thanks
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bussy day tomrrow
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261635 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1235 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
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121. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
If this is ever able to consolidate, I doubt it would be stronger than a minimal tropical storm.



Hope you are correct but, more interestingly, why do you believe this?
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Tropical weather girl...go to the top of the page a see Member blogs, Select that and you will find Levi23's blog
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
If this is ever able to consolidate, I doubt it would be stronger than a minimal tropical storm.



Agree.
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116. xcool
IKE .yeah.just rain make that all
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
If this is ever able to consolidate, I doubt it would be stronger than a minimal tropical storm.

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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:


Sorry new at this I am not sure how to get there without clicking on his name in the blog.


Click on his name, it will take you to his blog. Once there, look to the right and click on September. All of his September blogs will be there.

you can do the same for any name

No need to apologize

:-)
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112. IKE
Quoting xcool:


That's weaker then Matthew was.
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111. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting swlaaggie:


I do not know but you can go to his past blogs and see if there are Sunday posts. Hope that helps.

:-)


Sorry new at this I am not sure how to get there without clicking on his name in the blog.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF out to 108 on StormVista.

Nothing special at all.

Broad low along a front.

Far from the doom and gloom it had last week.


I thought every model developed a system in 48 hours? That is what everyone on here who is blasting the NHC is telling me

Should have known it was hype by this blog, what else is new
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It is going to take a while for that mess to consolidate. I don't see much organization. No way the NHC should have increased the %

""
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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