Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 208 - 158

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting Seflhurricane:
hey miami pressure is falling near the circulation


Pressure in Grand Cayman is 1006 mb now. Been pretty low all day. Highest it went was 1009mb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


It actually is an animation. An "animated GIF", to be hinest. (Not to mention that by their very nature, all movies are animations.)


My bad... thought it was a movie. An animation is sequence of pictures. A movie or video is a continuous recording which is broken to frames. It doesn't matter anyhow. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm not trying to bludgeon anyone here, but Earl was declared post-tropical at the 11PM EDT TWO on the 4th, so I'll say it again: there were no named Atlantic TCs (that is, tropical cyclones) in existence on Sunday, September 5th, 2010. Earl had been declared no longer a TC, and Hermine wasn't named yet. Another way of looking at it: no ACE was registered in the Atlantic that day...the only day from August 22 until, likely, today.
A tropical depression is considered to be a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ron5244:
Hey Florida - Who's ready for another TS Fay? ; )


But when we got Faye, the entire state was in a drought, a long drought and that one storm, made landfall in Florida like 4-5 times..

and our state went from RED to Blue in just 3 days of Faye criss crossing our state.

It was my Birthday (8/19/08) and I spent it watching this storm on my computer all day with all you friends!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
204. IKE
HPC shows a 1004 mb low approaching SW FL on day 5...




By day 6...weakens it to 1008mb over south Florida with a cold front heading down the peninsula of Florida...



Day 7...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


um

yea if it goes over the central or eastern part of Cuba, at this point I do not see that happening
Yeah, western Cuba isn't necessarily mountainous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seflagamma:


See Ike, 10 days out ROFL!!
I do not want to hear any more long range forcast models..

what is going to happen in the next 3 days???


nothing but NHC blasting from this blog, that is all

you are right though, but it seems funny to me that people on here want to blast the NHC for something the "models" are showing LMAO
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting futuremet:
Swirl of low pressure...


Yes. Go Look at the GFS too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Day 10 ECMWF...



See Ike, 10 days out ROFL!!
I do not want to hear any more long range forcast models..

what is going to happen in the next 3 days???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneFCast:


I am well aware of this..However, Earl was technically in existence because he wasn't downgraded until 3:00 UTC Sep 5th... Thus the reason I stated "It's sort of splitting hairs, honestly." I believe you misinterpreted my tone, Relax.


I'm not trying to bludgeon anyone here, but Earl was declared post-tropical at the 11PM EDT TWO on the 4th, so I'll say it again: there were no named Atlantic TCs (that is, tropical cyclones) in existence on Sunday, September 5th, 2010. Earl had been declared no longer a TC, and Hermine wasn't named yet. Another way of looking at it: no ACE was registered in the Atlantic that day...the only day from August 22 until, likely, today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18:45

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

Why the capitalization on Every Single Word? lol..


would you rather me post comments like this?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


I am telling you, it wont have much affect at all
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting seflagamma:


I just went to dug up his blog so it should now be at the top of the directory to make it easier to find him...




Aww why thank you Gamma you are very kind.
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Florida - Who's ready for another TS Fay? ; )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:
Swirl of low pressure...


personally I still see the area in the NW Caribbean is very disorganized; 10% was the right call
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Cuba's Mountains Will Weaken What Ever Forms.


Why the capitalization on Every Single Word? lol..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Swirl of low pressure...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Cuba's Mountains Will Weaken What Ever Forms.



um

yea if it goes over the central or eastern part of Cuba, at this point I do not see that happening
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cuba's Mountains Will Weaken What Ever Forms.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE REMNANT swirl

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:


Seems at the moment there will not be enough time for it to develop. I have a feeling we will be hearing 7 to 10 days again


rofl! I hear ya! late next week! LOL AGAIN!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
183. IKE
Day 10 ECMWF...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Igor should be up to Category 5 post-season. ADT and SAB both at one point supported a intensity of 7.0, or 140 knots. Honestly, not much of a difference, it was 1 mph short.


That is a cool link. Thanks.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting robj144:


Cool... but it's a movie not an animation... even better.


It actually is an animation. An "animated GIF", to be hinest. (Not to mention that by their very nature, all movies are animations.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
as of now, what would you say for a landfall intensity on florida.


No idea what so ever. Minimal TS - Category 2 hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:


Sorry new at this I am not sure how to get there without clicking on his name in the blog.


I just went to dug up his blog so it should now be at the top of the directory to make it easier to find him...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:

what happens to nicloe on the gfs


Hits Florida, but something strange happens to it. Kind of spans out into a trough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
One of the best hurricane animations I have ever seen. Only click the link if you have high-speed internet!


Igor should be up to Category 5 post-season. ADT and SAB both at one point supported a intensity of 7.0, or 140 knots. Honestly, not much of a difference, it was 1 mph short.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
173. IKE
Day 8 ECMWF...



Day 9...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS predicts initial Genesis of a system behind Nicole in 108 hours, or Friday.

The activity in the Atlantic Basin certainly has shifted. Cape Verde season is pretty much over, now we'll have a above average month of October in the Caribbean.



We're just 4 short of my predictions anyways.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18:34

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting Neapolitan:


The TD that would become Hermine was classified as such at 10PM CDT on the 5th, but Hermine didn't become a tropical storm nor gain a name until 4AM CDT on the 6th. So I'll repeat: there were no named Atlantic TCs in existence on September 5th.

Anyway...


I am well aware of this..However, Earl was technically in existence because he wasn't downgraded until 3:00 UTC Sep 5th... Thus the reason I stated "It's sort of splitting hairs, honestly." I believe you misinterpreted my tone, Relax.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:


Time seems to have stopped waiting for this game!
Can't wait hope I am not waiting yet again for a big let down.


Sorry meant to quote Cosmic
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog Update

Western Caribbean disturbance slowly becoming better organized
hey miami pressure is falling near the circulation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure is falling near the circulation

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.874N 85.059W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 26 Sep 2010 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (149°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.74 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.1 F
Dew Point: 76.1 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
One of the best hurricane animations I have ever seen. Only click the link if you have high-speed internet!


Cool... but it's a movie not an animation... even better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


How's that "cheating"? As time goes by and the odds of a particular storm developing increase, should the NHC not up their odds? I'm not sure how else they could do it...

Cheating might not be the right word. They have the advantage of starting out with a low percentage whether they believe a storm will form or not. With-in a 24 hour period they can go from 10% - 80% and still be within the original 24-48 time frame. A lot of the time the storms go from 80% to depression within hours. So, in a nutshell their first less percentage really doesn't seem to be accurate. I would be almost be willing to bet that the percentage will increase threefold tonight for the basically the same time-frame.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am confused

how can it on one hand have plenty of time to develop; yet on the other hand many in here are screaming at the NHC for not having this higher than 10% because some models have it developing in the next 2 days and hitting S Florida on day 3?


Most of the models have a landfall in Florida by Thursday, 4 days out. That is enough time to spawn a system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


How's that "cheating"? As time goes by and the odds of a particular storm developing increase, should the NHC not up their odds? I'm not sure how else they could do it...


Agreed. This isn't Vegas, no rule about not touching your chips after the ball begins to spin...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS develops another, stronger round behind Nicole on the 12z, by 174 hours too.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

September 5th, 11PM... Hermine "formed"... It's sort of splitting hairs, though, to be honest..


The TD that would become Hermine was classified as such at 10PM CDT on the 5th, but Hermine didn't become a tropical storm nor gain a name until 4AM CDT on the 6th. So I'll repeat: there were no named Atlantic TCs in existence on September 5th.

Anyway...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The operative words for the vorticity in the NW Caribbean are slow development. Until the ULL moves and the moderate shear is reduced , that area will be on hold for much significant development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 208 - 158

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Rain
49 °F
Rain Mist