Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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I don't like the looks of things. I'm in Naples, FL (SW FL) and it looks like we may be in the crossfire of at least one storm in the coming week. Is it the consensus at this point that this is true and will pan out? Would appreciate some educated opinions.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
no


whee! thx
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:


If you choose to include only "Named" storms.. Earl was Tropical DEPRESSION Earl at 3:00 UTC September 5th.. Now, in world time, that is September 5th, but in Eastern time, it is still September 4th.. Thus, why I've said this is simply splitting hairs. One way you cut it, the blog is correct.. the other way, Neo is correct.. It's truly a futile argument.
All in all I think the effects have been the same and a few hours either way didn't make much difference. Dolly passed Grand Cayman and hadn't even been declared a depression yet but we had winds of TS force and very heavy rain so named or not it still did the same thing.
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Quoting Detrina:
So short version between all the bickering about who said what:) Do I, living on the west coast of Fl (Tarpon Springs area) need to start packing up my electronics just in case? tai!
no
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So short version between all the bickering about who said what:) Do I, living on the west coast of Fl (Tarpon Springs area) need to start packing up my electronics just in case? tia!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually, I think he said NAMED storm so that would not make him wrong since it was declared a depression on 9/5 and was not named yet.


If you choose to include only "Named" storms.. Earl was Tropical DEPRESSION Earl at 3:00 UTC September 5th.. Now, in world time, that is September 5th, but in Eastern time, it is still September 4th.. Thus, why I've said this is simply splitting hairs. One way you cut it, the blog is correct.. the other way, Neo is correct.. It's truly a futile argument.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually, I think he said NAMED storm so that would not make him wrong since it was declared a depression on 9/5 and was not named yet.


and our original point was classified systems; which would make his rebuttal of no named storms on September 5th completely pointless
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Please read the entire thread before commenting (it'll help keep you from looking foolish to everyone): a tropical depression is not the same as a named tropical cyclone. A named tropical cyclone is what I've been talking about lo these many minutes.

Seems to me it's time for a tropical weather terminology lesson... ;-)

It is time for a tropical weather terminology lesson:

Tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation (Holland 1993).

Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) are called "tropical depressions".
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


TD 10 formed at 11pm on September FIFTH!! As MH09 said before and you so obviously ignored; Tropical Depressions are still considered Cyclones

so for the 45,876th time, you are wrong; there has been a tropical cyclone in existence each day since August 21st

Actually, I think he said NAMED storm so that would not make him wrong since it was declared a depression on 9/5 and was not named yet.
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Quoting cybergrump:
There is a small blow up of convention right where the low is. Lets see if this is the start.
what will be intresting is tomorrow morning !!
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There is a small blow up of convention right where the low is. Lets see if this is the start.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


The NHC uses local time...but even using UTC/GMT/Zulu time, you're still mistaken: Earl's last TWO was at 2100z on September 4th, and Hermine's first TWO was at 0900z on September 6th. So for the fourth and--definitely--final time: there were no named Atlantic tropical cyclones in existence on September 5th of this year. And getting things right isn't "splitting hairs"; it's called "scientific precision". ;-)

PA 3:00 UTC

Regarding Earl:
It's called splitting hairs when one chooses to say "But this was the last of that type of advisory" when, in reality, there were still advisories following those.
Regarding Hermine:
TD 10 formed on Sept 5th in your beloved time, Eastern. Follow the logic of MH09's argument.. Either way, you've got gaping holes in your argument..
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I hear you.
I've warned the Publix manager twice this season to "get ready for the big one" in 7 days and stock up his store and add personnel. Now, I can't walk into the store anymore...he looks at me like I'm Fred Sanford. "It's the big one, wheezie!"


ROFLMAO I am crying I am laughing so hard!!!!
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Please read the entire thread before commenting (it'll help keep you from looking foolish to everyone): a tropical depression is not the same as a named tropical cyclone. A named tropical cyclone is what I've been talking about lo these many minutes.

Seems to me it's time for a tropical weather terminology lesson... ;-)


LMFAO I am the one that made the original comment that started this debate LOL

the wikipedia text I posted said nothing about named storms either
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In regards to the NHC’s TWO color-coded system, I e-mailed Max Mayfield and asked him about it. Here is his response:

NHC's determination of the low, medium or high chance of development is done subjectively. They make use of everything available, including all model forecasts and the current observations which routinely includes satellite imagery but can at times include aircraft and radar data if available. And they have verified their chance of development forecasts in house from 2007 through 2009 and there is some skill in their subjective forecast. In fact, there was skill in giving the chance of development to the nearest 10%. See page 19 of http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2009.pdf as well as Table 13 and Figure 15.
Regards,
Max
2009 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I hear you.
I've warned the Publix manager twice this season to "get ready for the big one" in 7 days and stock up his store and add personnel. Now, I can't walk into the store anymore...he looks at me like I'm Fred Sanford. "It's the big one, wheezie!"
"It's the big one, ELIZABETH..." LOL!
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
circulation now on 85.0W and 18.0N
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Quoting Neapolitan:


The NHC uses local time...but even using UTC/GMT/Zulu time, you're still mistaken: Earl's last TWO was at 2100z on September 4th, and Hermine's first TWO was at 0900z on September 6th. So for the fourth and--definitely--final time: there were no named Atlantic tropical cyclones in existence on September 5th of this year. And getting things right isn't "splitting hairs"; it's called "scientific precision". ;-)

Does that mean that the time after the advisory is non-inclusive to the final lifetime of the storm?
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238. IKE
"""Quoting seflagamma:


See Ike, 10 days out ROFL!!
I do not want to hear any more long range forcast models..

what is going to happen in the next 3 days???"""....


Maybe some rain for you and that's about it through Wednesday.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Cuba really didn't do much to Fay either
Agreed!!! Western Cuba is no problem for a western carib storm moving north.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
If I remember correctly some of the strongest winds from Fay were well inland near lake Okeechobee.


Yep. I am pretty sure the Okeechobee area had gusts in the 60-70mph range.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


The NHC uses local time...but even using UTC/GMT/Zulu time, you're still mistaken: Earl's last TWO was at 2100z on September 4th, and Hermine's first TWO was at 0900z on September 6th. So for the fourth and--definitely--final time: there were no named Atlantic tropical cyclones in existence on September 5th of this year. And getting things right isn't "splitting hairs"; it's called "scientific precision". ;-)


TD 10 formed at 11pm on September FIFTH!! As MH09 said before and you so obviously ignored; Tropical Depressions are still considered Cyclones

so for the 45,876th time, you are wrong; there has been a tropical cyclone in existence each day since August 21st

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234. JLPR2
Yo! everyone.:D
Look at Ex-Julia, it keeps trying for a second run.

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233. IKE
6-10 day temps from Oct. 2nd-6th...

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circulation now on 85.0W and 18.0N
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I hear you.
I've warned the Publix manager twice this season to "get ready for the big one" in 7 days and stock up his store and add personnel. Now, I can't walk into the store anymore...he looks at me like I'm Fred Sanford. "It's the big one, wheezie!"


LOL!
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

It depends where you live, Neo. UTC = GMT = World's Time.. This is, for the 3rd time, why I said it's literally splitting hairs... As a person whom, upon observation, seems to love technicalities, I assumed you would understand what I was saying.. In all honesty, I'll drop the matter, as it seems it will proceed only in a matter that will become a detriment to the blog and to my precious time.


The NHC uses local time...but even using UTC/GMT/Zulu time, you're still mistaken: Earl's last TWO was at 2100z on September 4th, and Hermine's first TWO was at 0900z on September 6th. So for the fourth and--definitely--final time: there were no named Atlantic tropical cyclones in existence on September 5th of this year. And getting things right isn't "splitting hairs"; it's called "scientific precision". ;-)
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Quoting dmh1026:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


um

yea if it goes over the central or eastern part of Cuba, at this point I do not see that happening
Cuba didn't do much to Charlie, Ivan, and more I can't think of right this minute....


Cuba really didn't do much to Fay either
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
If I remember correctly some of the strongest winds from Fay were well inland near lake Okeechobee.


That would be correct, after it built its eyewall over land.

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The remnants of Matthew are moving north toward the Bay of Campeche. The UKM still has it moving toward the BOC.
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Quoting seflagamma:


See Ike, 10 days out ROFL!!
I do not want to hear any more long range forcast models..

what is going to happen in the next 3 days???
I hear you.
I've warned the Publix manager twice this season to "get ready for the big one" in 7 days and stock up his store and add personnel. Now, I can't walk into the store anymore...he looks at me like I'm Fred Sanford. "It's the big one, wheezie!"
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
If I remember correctly some of the strongest winds from Fay were well inland near lake Okeechobee.
over Hendry and Glades Counties
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If I remember correctly some of the strongest winds from Fay were well inland near lake Okeechobee.
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Quoting IKE:
HPC shows a 1004 mb low approaching SW FL on day 5...




By day 6...weakens it to 1008mb over south Florida with a cold front heading down the peninsula of Florida...



Day 7...



And your point is?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


um

yea if it goes over the central or eastern part of Cuba, at this point I do not see that happening
Cuba didn't do much to Charlie, Ivan, and more I can't think of right this minute....
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Broad circulation ?
darn it did not catch the part we wanted. dam!!!
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Broad circulation ?
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm not trying to bludgeon anyone here, but Earl was declared post-tropical at the 11PM EDT TWO on the 4th, so I'll say it again: there were no named Atlantic TCs (that is, tropical cyclones) in existence on Sunday, September 5th, 2010. Earl had been declared no longer a TC, and Hermine wasn't named yet. Another way of looking at it: no ACE was registered in the Atlantic that day...the only day from August 22 until, likely, today.

Wouldn't that be the 5th in UTC though?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah.
hey miami out of curiosity what school do you go to ??? email me just curious
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


with a wind of 0mph, maybe that is the EYE LOL
I didn't say the eye but if you notice earlier this morning the winds were 32 mph. Just shows that something is going on in the NW Caribbean.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bingo. That is the same comparison I used.
Miami do you see any changes with the circulation as of now, i haven't seen any change
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Some of the models did indicated weak steering right?
Yeah.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bingo. That is the same comparison I used.


Some of the models did indicated weak steering right?
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Quoting Ron5244:
Hey Florida - Who's ready for another TS Fay? ; )
Bingo. That is the same comparison I used.
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Quoting Ron5244:
Hey Florida - Who's ready for another TS Fay? ; )


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pressure continues to fall in the northwest carribean
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Pressure in Grand Cayman is 1006 mb now. Been pretty low all day. Highest it went was 1009mb.


with a wind of 0mph, maybe that is the EYE LOL
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm not trying to bludgeon anyone here, but Earl was declared post-tropical at the 11PM EDT TWO on the 4th, so I'll say it again: there were no named Atlantic TCs (that is, tropical cyclones) in existence on Sunday, September 5th, 2010. Earl had been declared no longer a TC, and Hermine wasn't named yet. Another way of looking at it: no ACE was registered in the Atlantic that day...the only day from August 22 until, likely, today.

It depends where you live, Neo. UTC = GMT = World's Time.. This is, for the 3rd time, why I said it's literally splitting hairs... As a person whom, upon observation, seems to love technicalities, I assumed you would understand what I was saying.. In all honesty, I'll drop the matter, as it seems it will proceed only in a matter that will become a detriment to the blog and to my precious time.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
hey miami pressure is falling near the circulation


Pressure in Grand Cayman is 1006 mb now. Been pretty low all day. Highest it went was 1009mb.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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