Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1608 - 1558

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Buoy 42056 bp 29.66 and fallen fast. ESE wind 24kt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1607. dmaddox
Quoting whepton3:


couldn't read how far out this model is at the bottom... is this what the model is saying about the current Caribbean low?
300 hour... valid Oct. 9 @ 12z...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Probably whenever the next model run is we'll get invest status. There is no real clear cut status to get an invest, they've declared them overland before, but usually whenever it hits 30% you get an invest.


thanks... I've always wondered if there are st criteria for an invest status or if it is a subjective thing by the NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whepton3:
Good Morning all. This low pressure over the Caribbean just exploded in the last couple of hours... since the 2AM... wondering how much closer this is to becoming an invest.


Probably whenever the next model run is we'll get invest status. There is no real clear cut status to get an invest, they've declared them overland before, but usually whenever it hits 30% you get an invest.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
Quoting dmaddox:
Bad News:


couldn't read how far out this model is at the bottom... is this what the model is saying about the current Caribbean low?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning all. This low pressure over the Caribbean just exploded in the last couple of hours... since the 2AM... wondering how much closer this is to becoming an invest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1602. 34chip
Quoting RotorYacht:
Follow Levi32's Blog and he will break it all down for you. He should have a new update today sometime so keep checking in later. As for those systems being hurricane(s) I would put a pretty good bet that one will roll through South Florida before the end of this season. As Levi32 mentions in his blog over and over that the earth has to get rid of the heat in the Carib. so standby for a storm to do just that.

Link


Thanks! I live in Key Wesy so it sounds like we have lots of rain ahead of us. Let's hope it does not becaome a hurricane, but we shall see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Follow Levi32's Blog and he will break it all down for you. He should have a new update today sometime so keep checking in later. As for those systems being hurricane(s) I would put a pretty good bet that one will roll through South Florida before the end of this season. As Levi32 mentions in his blog over and over that the earth has to get rid of the heat in the Carib. so standby for a storm to do just that.

Link

Quoting 34chip:

That bring it right up to Key West is that a hurricane and if so how strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1600. 34chip
Quoting RotorYacht:
This model shows a storm giving S.W Cuba an extra cleaning.

Link

That bring it right up to Key West is that a hurricane and if so how strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This model shows a storm giving S.W Cuba an extra cleaning.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLORIDA LOOKS TO BE IN THE TARGET SEVERAL TIMES. YIKES

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1597. dmaddox
Bad News:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
canadian is picking up on some development that might affect the windwards later in the week there is a few areas in the mdr that are staarting to look interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reporting myself back to the blog safe and sound after mathew some minor damages and few deaths so thats was a close one.

Thxs everybody for all the support on saturday morning in me decisions on travel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barbamz:


Good morning. CV-Railway isn't closed yet, it seems ...

The Western Caribbean will be a Tropical Cyclone/Tropical Moisture feed all the way from near Honduras to Maine in the USA..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1592. barbamz


Good morning. CV-Railway isn't closed yet, it seems ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport
Lat: 32.91 Lon: -97.03 Elev: 560
Last Update on Sep 27, 2:53 am CDT

Fair

56 F
(13 C)
Humidity: 72 %
Wind Speed: N 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.02" (1015.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 47 F (8 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History

Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport 02:53 Fair 56 47 72 N 8 30.02
Dallas Love Field 02:53 Fair 57 48 72 N 6 30.02
Dallas Executive Airport 02:53 Fair 56 48 75 N 6 30.01
Grand Prairie Municipal Airport 02:47 Fair 57 48 72 N 9 30.04
Collin County Regional Airport 02:53 Fair 53 49 86 NW 3 30.02
Arlington Municipal Airport 02:53 Fair 56 49 77 N 8 30.02
Denton Municipal Airport 02:53 Fair 52 50 93 NW 5 30.04
Fort Worth Alliance Airport 02:53 Fair 57 49 74 NE 6 30.02
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport 02:53 Fair 54 49 83 N 6 30.02
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station 02:52 Fair NA NA NA N 7 30.07
Mineral Wells Airport 02:53 Fair 55 51 87 N 3 30.02
Terrell Municipal Airport 02:53 Fair 55 47 74 N 5 30.01
Gainesville Municipal Airport 02:43 Fair 54 48 82 NW 3 30.07
Waco Regional Airport 02:51 Fair 57 51 81 N 7 30.02
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1589..Matthew is angry because he was called a "remnant Low" and the AOI in the W Caribbean in angry because many say, "Oh, nothing will develop that is much of anything".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1589. dmaddox
someone is angry:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As Emeril Lagasse would say on his cooking show, "BAM"!!


Hot off the press as of 2:15 PM CDT :O)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1587. dmaddox
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dmaddox:
Houston Hobby is in the 60's for the first time in 130 days... (May 20th was the last time).. hmmmm.... i got my jacket on! keep those systems away from TX! LOL


Lol. Not just me then. SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1585. dmaddox
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am in Arlington, TX we are at 59F at he moment. I left work at 12:45am and used the heat in my truck!!
BRRR! fall is here! Finally!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dmaddox:
Houston Hobby is in the 60's for the first time in 130 days... (May 20th was the last time).. hmmmm.... i got my jacket on! keep those systems away from TX! LOL

I am in Arlington, TX we are at 59F at he moment. I left work at 12:45am and used the heat in my truck!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1583. 34chip
Quoting dmaddox:
If Key West got 10inches of rain we will be under water a few days or more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1582. dmaddox
Houston Hobby is in the 60's for the first time in 130 days... (May 20th was the last time).. hmmmm.... i got my jacket on! keep those systems away from TX! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dmaddox:

Well, looks like the drought will be over for FL and portions of the Eastern Seaboard.

Looks like there may be at least one, possibly 2 or more tropical systems sail up the FL to ME corridor. Things are going to get real real ugly. At the minimum, flooding will be widespread up and down the E Coast.

IF these impulses are strong TC's there is going to be a BIG mess for many many people!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1580. dmaddox
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The SW Gulf of Mexico and the Western Caribbean are boiling with convection!!!!

This is remnant Low Matthew below!!!

Our future Invest and next "N" storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1578. JLPR2
Well I'm off, night/morning all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1577. mbjjm
weather Documentary back from Hurricane Hugo



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. The set-up appears in place to make the SW FL, GA, SC, NC. VA and northward a "bowling alley" for tropical systems or tropical moisture to be shot up the Eastern Seaboard.

This reminds me of the early 1950's when Hazel, Carol and Edna literally raked the Eastern Seaboard, scary scenario is setting up!!

Stay tuned as our insane 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season continues!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1575. xcool
EURO shows lows in cab
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1574. JLPR2
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

PR have none hurricanes this year!!


So far...
I don't like saying anything till Christmas! XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


huzzah! XD

Also, EURO develops 48L but keeps it weak until it gets to the north of PR where it starts to develop, also something passes through Florida.

PR have none hurricanes this year!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1572. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
my bday come soon.


huzzah! XD

Also, EURO develops 48L but keeps it weak until it gets to the north of PR where it starts to develop, also something passes through Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dmaddox:
we got an Invest yet in the NW Caribbean ?


Floater 1 is assigned to Matthew, other three are showing "Not Active".

So my guess would be, not yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1570. mbjjm
Quoting 34chip:
So what type of weather are we in for in Key West, Florida. Thanks!


Partly cloudy with afternoon showers and thunderstorms .The rest depends the track on the low pressure area/ potential system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1569. dmaddox
we got an Invest yet in the NW Caribbean ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1568. xcool
my bday come soon.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1567. xcool

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1566. 34chip
So what type of weather are we in for in Key West, Florida. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1565. xcool
oh .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1564. mbjjm
Looking at all the models , The Bermuda Azores High will build from the US to Spain and be strong up to 1030mb. Any thing that develops east of the Lesser Antilles will be pushed into the Caribbean and Once Ity gets into the Caribbean It will be pulled north towards the Bahamas/S.Florida and Con Us
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1563. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


It's up to 120hrs, waiting for 144hr. :\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hate trolls that use other people's handles to make fun of them. Flagging every one. Asking admin to wipe other handles using that IP as well.

Just wrong.


It is wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1561. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1560. xcool
mbjjm old old
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1559. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1558. mbjjm
Euro -Oper 0z

2nd system (shown East of the N. Leeward Islands) will move through the Caribbean before being darwn to the North to The Bahamas/ S.Fl as being shown on the cmc


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1608 - 1558

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
28 °F
Mostly Cloudy