Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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I think that, based on the sat. imagery, it is safe to say that Julia is back, for the time being.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
would be nice to get the research mission to inspect the circulation in the NW carribean to get some good info
it will be there tomorrow
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Quoting robj144:


Where are you? Central to southern FLA is not in any drought.



The maps are deceiving, its only cause we had so much drenching rain in August that we are not in a drought. But we had maybe had 2.00 inches of rain for the month of September, and the same goes for much of the rest of Central Florida.

Sorry but 2.00 inches of rain for September in Florida isn't exactly wet. I checked rainfall to date records, and we are near the driest september on record. September is normally the second wettest month of the year.

Now maybe you can understand how upset I am!

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would be nice to get the research mission to inspect the circulation in the NW carribean to get some good info
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Quoting PennGator:

I wish that was the case here in Daytona Bch. on the barrier island...The entire summer has been "extremely" dry w/ maybe 10-20% of a typical summer precipitation...


Yes, I agree that parts of the state are dry, but most of the state is fine. Here:
Link
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test
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I'm honestly not too concerned about the developing system, I don't think the NHC is either, it will probably just be a hybrid due to potential frontal interaction...

I doubt we will get anything from it here in Tampa bay. Man I was excited we were gonna get out of this dry weather around here. But not only has the wet pattern we have been forecast to be in right now a complete bust, looks like this system will probably bring cool dry air to Tampa... YUCK!
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296. IKE
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Quoting robj144:


Sure, but south Florida is also part of the state, and we don't need any rain really.


With yesterday, and the lengthier shower we got this morning added in, we're now at 0.82" for the month. If you have extra, we'll take it.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting robj144:


Where are you? Central to southern FLA is not in any drought.

I wish that was the case here in Daytona Bch. on the barrier island...The entire summer has been "extremely" dry w/ maybe 10-20% of a typical summer precipitation...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
HurricaneFCast, what's your best guess about the Caribbean low?


There are just so many scenarios.. It's crazy at the moment. I'm stuck between the ECWMF's solution, which brings a broad, almost-monsoonal, low across Cuba and Florida in the next 4-6 days, and the GFS solution, which spawns a series of weak to moderate systems in the Western Caribbean over the next 10 days or so.. I just can't say.. Look for something a bit more sane between those two solutions, but better judgement seems to err on the side of the ECMWF rather than the GFS.. although I wouldn't discount the GFS... It just doesn't seem as likely given what sustained activity in the western caribbean would do to SST's and TCHP.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Please read the entire thread before commenting (it'll help keep you from looking foolish to everyone): a tropical depression is not the same as a named tropical cyclone. A named tropical cyclone is what I've been talking about lo these many minutes.

Seems to me it's time for a tropical weather terminology lesson... ;-)


I almost didn't get involved in this nonsense, but this last post did me in... my tongue hurts too much from biting it...

Stop talking to everyone like they're idiots, Neo. It is obvious what you've done... you've inserted one word... "NAMED" tropical cyclones... to suit your argument.

The NHC Glossary says:

Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

So, sure... on that date there might not have been a NAMED storm in existence. But there WAS a CLASSIFIED TROPICAL CYCLONE. There's simply no getting around it, no matter how you skew times and definitions.

If you're open to debate, then do it politely. That snide remark to the other user about 'keeping them from looking foolish' and 'time for a tropical terminology lesson' are just rude.

Especially when you're just plain incorrect. LOL. (<-- modified to make a comment - i'm not sure if you will understand that i was joking here... i was :) )

Not trying to make an enemy, but this whole thing is stupid... I came on here for some insight into what looks to be a potentially complicated and active period coming up, and I have to filter though all of this BS to get any good info.

Move on.
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Quoting Kearn:
oh heck we need rain in FL so bad

if it isn't going to be this oh-look-at-me-i'm-going-to-flatten-your-state kind of storm then it's welcome here


LOL and I agree.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


That chunk of land west of a line from Tallahassee to Apalachicola is part of Florida - and it is definitely dry. Just sayin'

;-)


Sure, but south Florida is also part of the state, and we don't need any rain really.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I always considered that lower Alabama.


LOL
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I don't mind if forecasters get things wrong and admit it, but when the forecasts are absolutely horrible like they have been lately in Central Florida, I would at least hope for some explanation. Its ridiculous, the act as if they forecasted this weather. But even somebody that doesn't have a clue about weather knows better.


They forecasted numerous to widespread thunderstorms across central Florida since Friday, with rainfall between 2 and 4 inches possible, but there hasn't been any more then a few isolated showers, same weather they had about 5 days ago when they had 20% rain chances in the forecast.


The ridiculous thing is, they tried to explain why we didn't get anything saying "all the moist air has moved into the gulf and drier air moved in, but we expect higher moisture tomorrow". WRONG


Atmospheric soundings has showed PWAT's consistent between 2.25 and 2.5 inches, never once did the air dry out. I would rather here forecasts say "well we don't know the reason" rather then lie and say its dry air when the the atmosphere has been loaded with tropical moisture all along.


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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I see that there is 850mb vort in the NW Caribbean and all over Cent. America. Does the vort have to separate itself to develop?
I am not sure but I think an area does isolate itself from the rest which would show the genesis of development. When it is spread out is just a disorganized mess. Anyone feel free to correct me if I am way off base.
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285. xcool
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I always considered that lower Alabama.


LOL!
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283. xcool
HPC

PRIMARY GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AT MORE MODERATE SCALE START EARLY IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00
UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGING MORE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS SEWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THAT ACTS AS A MORE
EFFICIENT ERN US TROUGH/PCPN KICKER THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE OTHER
THAN NOGAPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SEEMS TO SUGGESTS THAT THE
00 UTC ECMWF MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...LENDING TO A MORE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THE 00 UTC
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND GFS/CANADIAN/NAEFS ENSEMBLES HOLD COPIOUSLY
MORE RAINFALL INLAND OVER THE ERN STATES WITH MORE ENERGY ALOFT
HOLDING BACK AT THE SRN END OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. THE 06
UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THAT LATTER
CLUSTER BUT 12 UTC GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOW STILL LEAVES THE DOOR
WIDE OPEN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY HEAVY TROPICAL
MOISTURE FUELED RAINS. A 16Z HPC/TPC COORDINATION CALL FOSTER SOME
FORM OF TROPICAL LOW INTO FL LATE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A UNCERTAIN
STRENGTH/SPEED...BUT DEEP LEAD MOISTURE
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


That chunk of land west of a line from Tallahassee to Apalachicola is part of Florida - and it is definitely dry. Just sayin'


I always considered that lower Alabama.
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Quoting robj144:


Where are you? Central to southern FLA is not in any drought.


That chunk of land west of a line from Tallahassee to Apalachicola is part of Florida - and it is definitely dry. Just sayin'

;-)
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


True, very true. Then again, most of the time, on this blog the NHC is considered to be way off base. I'd like to see though, how many systems have been predicted by the blog vs. by the NHC, compared to actual systems.

In all honesty, I think what we are seeing now is a lot of reliance on models that have predicted 12 of the last 3 storms with reasonable accuracy. ;-)

What we are seeing here is apparently the pre-storm version if It turned west! Look! In that last frame!


+10000 well said
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Quoting Kearn:
oh heck we need rain in FL so bad

if it isn't going to be this oh-look-at-me-i'm-going-to-flatten-your-state kind of storm then it's welcome here


Where are you? Central to southern FLA is not in any drought.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


many on this blog, don't because they disagree with them


True, very true. Then again, most of the time, on this blog the NHC is considered to be way off base. I'd like to see though, how many systems have been predicted by the blog vs. by the NHC, compared to actual systems.

In all honesty, I think what we are seeing now is a lot of reliance on models that have predicted 12 of the last 3 storms with reasonable accuracy. ;-)

What we are seeing here is apparently the pre-storm version if It turned west! Look! In that last frame!
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
274. Kearn
oh heck we need rain in FL so bad

if it isn't going to be this oh-look-at-me-i'm-going-to-flatten-your-state kind of storm then it's welcome here
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
link please
Look back at post 262. The link is there.
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How about Florida doesn't get ANY storms this week? Gets a hell of a lot of rain though. Or that goes through SE Georgia too.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
link please


Link

This is a good one for vorticity, convergence and divergence. Have fun!
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I have raised my guidance to 50% after seeing the burst of convection in the NW Carib.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I don't like the looks of things. I'm in Naples, FL (SW FL) and it looks like we may be in the crossfire of at least one storm in the coming week. Is it the consensus at this point that this is true and will pan out? Would appreciate some educated opinions.


Hello Naples dreamer I live very close to your area I at the moment do not see this being anything crazy. However things can quickly change so just keep checking in and remember to keep watch for the next 7 to 10 days lol
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Well, if you consider these guys educated enough...

1. A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
NNNN


many on this blog, don't because they disagree with them
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Quoting cybergrump:
Vort has increased
link please
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I don't like the looks of things. I'm in Naples, FL (SW FL) and it looks like we may be in the crossfire of at least one storm in the coming week. Is it the consensus at this point that this is true and will pan out? Would appreciate some educated opinions.


opinions we can give you...'educated' opinions...well...ya pays yur money and ya takes yur chances...
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lmao at the gfs, it has like 4 different systems rolling over florida, but ... as i've heard the gfs just cant handle all this heat in the carribean and its likely not going to be 4 different systems but maybe 2??
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Vort has increasedLink
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Nicole getting ready to fire up.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I don't like the looks of things. I'm in Naples, FL (SW FL) and it looks like we may be in the crossfire of at least one storm in the coming week. Is it the consensus at this point that this is true and will pan out? Would appreciate some educated opinions.


Well, if you consider these guys educated enough...

1. A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting Detrina:
So short version between all the bickering about who said what:) Do I, living on the west coast of Fl (Tarpon Springs area) need to start packing up my electronics just in case? tia!

This is probably the most complicated series of forecasting events to have occurred this season. Thus, until something of substance actually develops a surface circulation and is not associated with a frontal system, stay tuned to Dr. Masters and the NHC. There are 100 scenarios at the moment..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.