Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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357. flsky
Quoting Skyepony:
LBAR By far bested the rest of the models on Matthew..24hrs error 58nm, 48hr 60.4, 72hrs 92.5, 96hrs 272.6 & at 5 days 326.4.

Would you post a link to this model? I can't find it. Thanks!
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1915
Quoting clwstmchasr:


For us to get the rain here in Central Fl we need to get something to come up the West Coast. Right now there is a lot of model support for storms to move right through South Florida.


yeah that's what worries me, that a southern Florida track could bring drier air in rather then rain.
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Quoting Kristina40:


Yeah, and yesterday's showers were really spotty. One of my customers got no rain at all while the other side of his street got drenched. I live up in Hiland Park and we generally get more than the beach.


A bit farther over, Callaway and Parker seem to get more than we do. One of the maps people post here actually shows it. That's just a wet area I guess. We get a sprinkle, they get flooded. Seems odd to see a pattern like that on such a small scale.

The Beach seems to miss it all the time. Anything that comes in off the water seems to get inland to pick up on the thermal convection a bit before firing up I guess.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Broad and open low pressure area.

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Quoting robj144:
Saints lost in OT. They should have lost last week too... let's see hard it will be for them to repeat. Already off to a rough start.

To keep this weather related... it's sunny today in south FLA. :)


Saints should have been 3 and 0. Will make up for it next game. Who Dat!

My lawn is currently being mowed. First time in a month, considering it is hay and not grass, should have been waist high. Need rain here!
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Quoting SeALWx:

Have you not heard of the mesoscale models?
There are several like the MM5 and local WRFs that are used quite frequently by both NWS and local mets.


yeah well they don't seem to be using them much, they have relied mostly on global models for rainfall coverage, which was probably the fatal flaw lol
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy, I saw 2.47" Friday night and it appears we are in for a massive dumping later today. I would agree it has been dry overall but that appears to be changing as FL could have several tropical systems passing thru the next 6 weeks.


I sure hope so! Ive just had a lot of disappointment in the weather this weekend lol. Yeah I saw some real heavy stuff over in Orlando on Friday, we only 0.21 here though.

The heavy rain should finally materialize next couple days though. For whatever reason the atmosphere has been very stable last few days despite forecasters saying it would be unstable. Because moisture levels have been extremely high lately, its obviously not moisture, and we had lots of building cumulus this weekend that never grow any higher into convection. That leads me to believe there is a strong cap over the area that has gone undetected mostly.

However! That trough to our northwest should erode this stable air layer, then we should begin to see an explosion of deep convection.
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Saints lost in OT. They should have lost last week too... let's see hard it will be for them to repeat. Already off to a rough start.

To keep this weather related... it's sunny today in south FLA. :)
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pressures on my station is showing 1005.8mb and falling
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


The airport is showing 0.77" for today. Way more than we've had in a while now, for sure. Not sure what we got over here though, since they moved the airplane patch. Used to be close enough to figure what they got, we got.


Yeah, and yesterday's showers were really spotty. One of my customers got no rain at all while the other side of his street got drenched. I live up in Hiland Park and we generally get more than the beach.
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Quoting Kristina40:
The Panhandle has been very dry. Up until the little rain showers the past couple of days we had 0 precip. for September in Panama City. We probably got 1-2 inches the past two days.


The airport is showing 0.77" for today. Way more than we've had in a while now, for sure. Not sure what we got over here though, since they moved the airplane patch. Used to be close enough to figure what they got, we got.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting Jedkins01:



Oh I know, they trust too much in those dang frikkin global models, if they just went outside and looked at the clouds they could have seen that forecasts are wrong lol.

I have also see where supposedly we have stable dry conditions, but in reality we end up getting torrential tropical down pours and lots of lightning end up being reality.

I think computer models suck at local Florida weather because they are too globalized for our often specialized weather conditions.


They need to make a computer model mainly just for the State of Florida, then have it linked with a bigger model so it gets the whole picture.

Have you not heard of the mesoscale models?
There are several like the MM5 and local WRFs that are used quite frequently by both NWS and local mets.

EDIT: You can even run your own WRF if you want. Google "WRF Users Page" for info.
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Quoting OSHNBLU:


Hey, dont be hatin' I went to Pinecrest Elem 1960-1966...LOL


I wasn't hatin' - just pokin' fun at how young MH09 is... (and smart)
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Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm honestly not too concerned about the developing system, I don't think the NHC is either, it will probably just be a hybrid due to potential frontal interaction...

I doubt we will get anything from it here in Tampa bay. Man I was excited we were gonna get out of this dry weather around here. But not only has the wet pattern we have been forecast to be in right now a complete bust, looks like this system will probably bring cool dry air to Tampa... YUCK!


Highly doubt it will be hybrid at all, given the fact this develops in the Caribbean before it interacts with any troughs.
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Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:
So... is NHC gonna get their yellow crayon out for exJulia?


It sure looks like Julia-Deux qualifies....The track though will avoid the mainland US if it follows climatology..but Bermuda, Nova Scotia or poor old NFLD may be in the sights again. SST's are warm and anomalously warm to the N and W of Julia II...and as JLPR2 noted, shear is low...

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Quoting Dakster:


I think he goes to Pinecrest Elementary... (j/k)



Hey, dont be hatin' I went to Pinecrest Elem 1960-1966...LOL
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The Panhandle has been very dry. Up until the little rain showers the past couple of days we had 0 precip. for September in Panama City. We probably got 1-2 inches the past two days.
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I've been watching Julia quietly moving westward since they discontinued the updates. She's stealthy ...
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So... is NHC gonna get their yellow crayon out for exJulia?
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Quoting Kearn:
oh heck we need rain in FL so bad

if it isn't going to be this oh-look-at-me-i'm-going-to-flatten-your-state kind of storm then it's welcome here


You must live in the LA portion of Florida...
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
hey miami out of curiosity what school do you go to ??? email me just curious


I think he goes to Pinecrest Elementary... (j/k)

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stb (soon to be) Nicole may form from the mid level circulation in the NW caribbean. Convection is firing over the center which will help in the formation of a low level center.
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Quoting robj144:


He was talking about north FLA or central FLA, not south FLA.


I was talking about the Panhandle - not sure what that was about. Actually didn't pay it any attention, to tell the truth.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
4.74 inches of rain in sept. you're less than half right lol


4.47 is dry for the wet season, I don't know what you're boasting about. lol

Oh and by the way, after all that torrential rain, the grass is all withered up like it is in the spring, because it has not rained in 3 weeks. Even though we had over 20 inches of rain for the month of August!
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
4.74 inches of rain in sept. you're less than half right lol


He was talking about north FLA or central FLA, not south FLA.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I like this shot of Igor.



Hey man... that was cool... thanx 4 sharing :)
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325. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and she is moving DUE WEST!! *pulls hair out* LOL


There you go, that is what she wants! XD
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ex-Julia, although of academic interest, probably has some T numbers by now. ~28N 54W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-avn.html

"it is the storm than never ends, it just goes on and on my friends"
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323. JLPR2
Actually an anticyclone has developed very close to Julia.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, Julia definitely wants some attention, poor girl was always overshadowed by Igor, it's stime to shine!
LOL XD


and she is moving DUE WEST!! *pulls hair out* LOL
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320. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Funniest thing, is if they de re-issue advisories on Julia; that whole debate about no named storms since whenever would be moot lol


Yeah, Julia definitely wants some attention, poor girl was always overshadowed by Igor, it's stime to shine!
LOL XD
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


2.00" of rain is wet when you compare it to St. Simons Island. We have had 0.03" of rain this month. That's it.


Dang! That's horrible... It seems like often you repport drought up there, have you been dealing with drought for a long time overall?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
would be nice to get the research mission to inspect the circulation in the NW carribean to get some good info
Inspected or not, They may as well slap a big L on the Western Caribbean.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I agree with you. The forecast has been for a good chance of storms here in the Tampa Area all weekend. Yesterday less than 10% got rain and today even less. Oh but wait! We have 3 storms coming to FL which will bring us copious amounts of rainfall. LOL



Oh I know, they trust too much in those dang frikkin global models, if they just went outside and looked at the clouds they could have seen that forecasts are wrong lol.

I have also see where supposedly we have stable dry conditions, but in reality we end up getting torrential tropical down pours and lots of lightning end up being reality.

I think computer models suck at local Florida weather because they are too globalized for our often specialized weather conditions.


They need to make a computer model mainly just for the State of Florida, then have it linked with a bigger model so it gets the whole picture.
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Quoting robj144:


Yes, I agree that parts of the state are dry, but most of the state is fine. Here:
Link


Odd that we are listed as only "Abnormally Dry" on that chart, yet we have had less than an inch of rain this month, and our average is over 6". Pretty tough criteria there.

Not sure how our numbers stack up for the rest of the summer, since the numbers are from the airport, and we switched airports this season.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
314. JLPR2
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I like this shot of Igor.



Who doesn't? :D
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I think that, based on the sat. imagery, it is safe to say that Julia is back, for the time being.


Funniest thing, is if they de re-issue advisories on Julia; that whole debate about no named storms since whenever would be moot lol
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Quoting robj144:


Yes, I agree that parts of the state are dry, but most of the state is fine. Here:
Link

Thanks for the link.
That is a better drought index than the one depicting only by county. It seems that it rains regularly..2-5 miles away from the beach,
& inherently skews the precipitation data for the specific area.
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I think that, based on the sat. imagery, it is safe to say that Julia is back, for the time being.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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