Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Conditions at 42056 as of
(2:50 pm CDT)
1950 GMT on 09/26/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:


5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.68 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.08 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.0 °F
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...So here's a question for the more knowledgable...
What is the longest time a storm that has been killed (i.e. last NHC Advisory), then taken to resurrect?

If Julia managed now, she would be at 162hrs, or 6.5 days?


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405. xcool
10% by nhc come soon
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:


worried is an understatement. terrified is more like it lol
I would wait to see what happens many things can happen, just be ready for a possible rough october
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You know... all you Florida "I MUST HAVE RAIN EVERYDAY" people need to know.

we get more rain in one month of our dry season than most areas in California get their entire year! and most of the CONUS does not get the rain we get here in Florida.

We are way too spoiled with our wanting so much rain all the time.

I love rain and we need rain to keep our tropical gardens and swamps..but get a grip on the whining.....right now the Panhandle needs rain, the rest of us are still OK..

if we get a wet TC in the next few weeks, South & South Central FLA will be in trouble.
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399. JLPR2
D-max should be interesting tonight.

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Every year from 2006 on has been below normal. Although to be fair, 2009 was ahead most of the year and then we had a dry fall and were less than 2" below normal for the year.

Areas around us are dry also, but storms have just kept missing us, and locally the island has been dry, dry, dry. We are more than 17" below normal for the year.

In fact, if this tropical system doesn't pan out this week, our driest year in history becomes a real possibility. We need 5.59" more rain this year to tie our driest year on record (going back to 1948)



dang man that's ridiculous, things must look pretty ugly around there! Even though its been dry the last few weeks here, overall its been a pretty nice year rainfall wise. We have had unusually high rainfall followed by unusually dry weather in intervals all year, but overall more rain then dry.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


You'll get there. Good game today. My heart took a while to calm down after the sudden death plays.

StSimonsIslandGAGuy,
I'm glad because the rain would be going to the wrong part of LA. They've been getting enough rain lately.
when does the game begin for the dolphins ???
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Quoting Dakster:


Those of us that are Dolphin fans are still waiting...


You'll get there. Good game today. My heart took a while to calm down after the sudden death plays.

StSimonsIslandGAGuy,
I'm glad because the rain would be going to the wrong part of LA. They've been getting enough rain lately.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, I would raise it to 20%.
yeah sounds right, hey what school do you go to???
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I think I feel a Wunderground Poll coming on...

What percent will the Western Carribean distrubance be at the next TWO...
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
hey miami do you think that the NHC will make it 30% next TWO
Nah, I would raise it to 20% if I were the NHC...not more.
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389. JLPR2
Quoting UKHWatcher:



She sure came back out a nowhere this afternoon!

GOES EAST Water Vapor Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html



Wind shear relaxing just a bit is allowing Julia to look better and maintain convection.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Broad and open low pressure area.

hey miami do you think that the NHC will make it 30% next TWO
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Going by satellite imagery looks like it will be at least 48-72 hours until a TD forms. It will most likely be a weak TS at best. I think the storms that could develop after that mess gets out of the way could be a bigger deal down the road.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, Julia definitely wants some attention, poor girl was always overshadowed by Igor, it's stime to shine!
LOL XD

Reminds me of a song I heard once.
Quoting JLPR2:


There you go, that is what she wants! XD

I don't think I've ever seen one swing back with any real strength as far west as Bermuda, but this is just casual memory I'm going off of. I'm sure there plenty of examples in history, but the one thing I bet there isn't in the record books, is one that comes back from the North Atlantic and hits CONUS. Now that would be one to make you babble like a baby.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Also called patience and not rushing to conclusions on something that has not formed yet...we have seen storms spin up fast and others that take a few days, the NHC sees something there but not getting too far ahead of themselves.


that and how many times have the consensus been wrong this year? I would say pretty good
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Quoting weatherman12345:
ok... but are the ensembles usually too low or high on the pressure?
Normally they'll indicate a much weaker system when looking at the means.
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Quoting robj144:


Lucky you're not 1-2. It's also fairly hot today here. :)


Saints fans have to believe. *G*
Pat had a nicer day for being at the game. The temps are about ten degrees cooler than this past week.
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#274,

Quoting Kearn:
oh heck we need rain in FL so bad

if it isn't going to be this oh-look-at-me-i'm-going-to-flatten-your-state kind of storm then it's welcome here


No we don't look at the drought map, only the Panhandle is in need of rain,...those of us in central Florida and South Florida are deep green and any tropical system will send us into big time flooding.
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Quoting Progster:


It sure looks like Julia-Deux qualifies....The track though will avoid the mainland US if it follows climatology..but Bermuda, Nova Scotia or poor old NFLD may be in the sights again. SST's are warm and anomalously warm to the N and W of Julia II...and as JLPR2 noted, shear is low...




She sure came back out a nowhere this afternoon!

GOES EAST Water Vapor Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which is why the NHC still only has this at 10%, a lesson in why they know more than most on here


Also called patience and not rushing to conclusions on something that has not formed yet...we have seen storms spin up fast and others that take a few days, the NHC sees something there but not getting too far ahead of themselves.
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San Pedro, Belize, pressure 1004,3 and falling.
http://sanpedroweather.com/
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


My Bucs are 2-1 and tied for first. Why do believe that won't be for long???? I'll answer the question. We're not that good. 7 wins this year.


Saints took how many years to get to the Superbowl? My grandfather taught me you have to pick a team and stick with them through thick and thin.

South LA is getting all the rain we need in west central LA.
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Quoting Dakster:
Wednesday it had something to do, so it postponed itself until Friday. *shrug*



Ah, the ol' previous engagement bit.

;-)
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Quoting weatherman12345:

what does the [pressure say?
It's an ensemble mean so it's useless to look at the pressure. But the fact that it indicates 1003mb shows that there is remarkable agreement among the ensembles members.
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Wednesday it had something to do, so it postponed itself until Friday. *shrug*

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Quoting sammywammybamy:



In that radar video you just posted, looks like fay went out of its way to avoid Tampa Bay. It's like we have a storm shield!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which is why the NHC still only has this at 10%, a lesson in why they know more than most on here
Scratch that...4 days.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z ECMWF ensembles say southwestern Florida in 5 days.



which is why the NHC still only has this at 10%, a lesson in why they know more than most on here
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
pressures on my station is showing 1005.8mb and falling
WS in EE at 1005 too.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z ECMWF ensembles say southwestern Florida in 5 days.



What happened to Wednesday?
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A little dedication to this afternoon discussion on time. Chicago Does anybody really know what time it is, does anybody really care.Link
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12z ECMWF ensembles say southwestern Florida in 4 days.

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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Saints should have been 3 and 0. Will make up for it next game. Who Dat!

My lawn is currently being mowed. First time in a month, considering it is hay and not grass, should have been waist high. Need rain here!


Lucky you're not 1-2. It's also fairly hot today here. :)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.