Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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#420:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Said who?


Here you go:




2211. MiamiHurricanes09 12:20 PM AST on September 18, 2010
At 120 hours, the system constantly being developed by the GFS begins its genesis in the central Caribbean.



Interesting the GOM...

Forecast for 95L
An upper-level high pressure system lies to the west of 95L, near the coast of Nicaragua. The clockwise flow of air around this high will bring a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear over 95L today. By Friday, 95L will move more underneath this upper-level high, causing the shear to decline. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday afternoon. This drop in shear may allow for rapid intensification of 95L as it approaches landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border on Friday night and early Saturday morning. NHC is giving the disturbance an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.


Figure 2. Forecast track of 95L from an ensemble of runs of the GFS model done at 2am EDT this morning.

The future of 95L depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If 95L misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Monday, as predicted by last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) run of the GFDL model. However, if 95L spends significant time over Honduras, as predicted by the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. 95L is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to slow and turn more to the north. 95L will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of 95L spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains mostly over land, 95L will still generate extremely heavy rains over Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force 95L westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing 95L northwards across Western Cuba and into Florida. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of 95L are high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that determine how much time the storm spends over land. One measure of the uncertainty in 95L's future track can be gained by viewing the ensemble forecast from the GFS model. An ensemble forecast is generated by taking the initial conditions in the atmosphere and making slight variations in the temperature, pressure, and humidity fields. Twenty or so tweaks of the initial conditions are made, and the GFS model run twenty separate times for each new set of initial conditions. The resulting ensemble of model runs gives one an idea of how sensitive the future track of the storm might be to errors in characterizing the initial state of the atmosphere. As one can see from this morning's GFS ensemble run (Figure 2), there are a wide range of possibilities for where 95L might go. The main thing I am confident of at this point is that 95L will generate very heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday through Tuesday that will likely cause dangerous flooding rains and life-threatening mudslides.



I am getting family interruptions but if you all just go back and re read the blogs from August forward.. you wil see.. the long raing forcast models beyond 6 days have been wrong on most of the systems that never developed.


got to go for now.
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Something seems like it must form.

Those are significant pressure readings at the buoys in the W Carib.

Vorticity increasing and it went from strong lower divergence to neutral.

NHC says 10% in next 48hrs. I say 50%, fwiw.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting southernstorm:


If we are lucky.
True.
God willing.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5533
Quoting CybrTeddy:


My lawn is brown.. and I live in Central FLA.

The rainy season has been far from in my area, I could count on my fingers how many thunderstorms we've seen in the last 3 months (alright, thats an exaggeration)

last year the lack of water, and the cold, got so bad that farmers started using up all the water for crops.. sink holes starting popping up everywhere. I want as much rain as we can get after that.


Where I live in Oklahoma all lawns are brown all summer unless, like me...you water them
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Quoting PcolaDan:

"The 10 rainiest cities in the U.S. by amount of annual rainfall include:" (lower 48)

* Mobile, Alabama--67 inches average annual rainfall; 59 average annual rainy days
* Pensacola, Florida--65 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* New Orleans, Louisiana--64 inches average annual rainfall; 59 average annual rainy days
* West Palm Beach, Florida--63 inches average annual rainfall; 58 average annual rainy days
* Lafayette, Louisiana--62 inches average annual rainfall; 55 average annual rainy days
* Baton Rouge, Louisiana--62 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* Miami, Florida--62 inches average annual rainfall; 57 average annual rainy days
* Port Arthur, Texas--61 inches average annual rainfall; 51 average annual rainy days
* Tallahassee, Florida--61 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* Lake Charles, Louisiana--58 inches average annual rainfall; 50 average annual rainy days


take Lake Charles off the list for now

can't remember when it's been this dry(been here since 1999) - I'm watering right now

getting ridiculous - front is moving through with no precip and the NWS says it's supposed to remain dry for as far out as they can go
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451. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:


Trough is making some headway this afternoon....



Should drag Ex-Julia with it too.
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I am more concern about my part of FL (just north of Tampa Bay) not getting an actual storm, but possible Monsoonal type rains. It's easier to call in and say "I'm not coming in because of TS Nicole" than, "It's raining.. I don't want to make that 40 mile commute in this weather!" If we do get the rain, I want a name to it!

Oh yeah while I'm at it.. Lived in 5 States, 3 metropolitan areas (Boston, Atlanta and LA) and TB drivers are the absolute WORST!

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Quoting IKE:
GMZ089-262130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT WILL
LIE FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO MON AFTERNOON AND
STALL FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON. NEW
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PASS NE INTO SW FLORIDA BY FRI AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO SE WATERS.

........interesting that there's no mention of the new low being a tropical cyclone at some time through Friday.
No TC--just rain is what it sounds like.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
Quoting gordydunnot:
Oh well couldn't get it to post conditions at buoy located 19.9n 85w BP 29.68 dropping .08 last hour.
I posted it at #407
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445. IKE
GMZ089-262130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT WILL
LIE FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO MON AFTERNOON AND
STALL FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON. NEW
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PASS NE INTO SW FLORIDA BY FRI AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO SE WATERS.

........interesting that there's no mention of the new low being a tropical cyclone at some time through Friday.
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Quoting IKE:


Trough is making some headway this afternoon....



Yup.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
We have learned that the only certainty with the 7 day out forecast is that we'll all be 7 days older.


If we are lucky.
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gamma is right!!! Calif needs your rain!!!!! Stop bogarding the rain!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Good Afternoon, Strong storm here in LA. look forward to a taste of fall.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
Criteria for a named system (storm):

Well-Defined Circulation - CHECK

Organized Convection - CHECK

Winds - ?????

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Quoting seflagamma:
You know... all you Florida "I MUST HAVE RAIN EVERYDAY" people need to know.

we get more rain in one month of our dry season than most areas in California get their entire year! and most of the CONUS does not get the rain we get here in Florida.

We are way too spoiled with our wanting so much rain all the time.

I love rain and we need rain to keep our tropical gardens and swamps..but get a grip on the whining.....right now the Panhandle needs rain, the rest of us are still OK..

if we get a wet TC in the next few weeks, South & South Central FLA will be in trouble.


My lawn is brown.. and I live in Central FLA.

The rainy season has been far from in my area, I could count on my fingers how many thunderstorms we've seen in the last 3 months (alright, thats an exaggeration)

last year the lack of water, and the cold, got so bad that farmers started using up all the water for crops.. sink holes starting popping up everywhere. I want as much rain as we can get after that.
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Oh well couldn't get it to post conditions at buoy located 19.9n 85w BP 29.68 dropping .08 last hour.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
Quoting seflagamma:
You know... all you Florida "I MUST HAVE RAIN EVERYDAY" people need to know.

we get more rain in one month of our dry season than most areas in California get their entire year! and most of the CONUS does not get the rain we get here in Florida.

We are way too spoiled with our wanting so much rain all the time.

I love rain and we need rain to keep our tropical gardens and swamps..but get a grip on the whining.....right now the Panhandle needs rain, the rest of us are still OK..

if we get a wet TC in the next few weeks, South & South Central FLA will be in trouble.

"The 10 rainiest cities in the U.S. by amount of annual rainfall include:" (lower 48)

* Mobile, Alabama--67 inches average annual rainfall; 59 average annual rainy days
* Pensacola, Florida--65 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* New Orleans, Louisiana--64 inches average annual rainfall; 59 average annual rainy days
* West Palm Beach, Florida--63 inches average annual rainfall; 58 average annual rainy days
* Lafayette, Louisiana--62 inches average annual rainfall; 55 average annual rainy days
* Baton Rouge, Louisiana--62 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* Miami, Florida--62 inches average annual rainfall; 57 average annual rainy days
* Port Arthur, Texas--61 inches average annual rainfall; 51 average annual rainy days
* Tallahassee, Florida--61 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* Lake Charles, Louisiana--58 inches average annual rainfall; 50 average annual rainy days
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434. IKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow! What a Cold Front:

Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport
Lat: 32.83 Lon: -97.35 Elev: 687
Last Update on Sep 26, 3:53 pm CDT

Fair

75 °F
(24 °C) Humidity: 42 %
Wind Speed: N 15 G 24 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1014.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 50 °F (10 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.


Trough is making some headway this afternoon....

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We need an ASCAT pass:




From this morning.
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Wow! What a Cold Front:

Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport
Lat: 32.83 Lon: -97.35 Elev: 687
Last Update on Sep 26, 3:53 pm CDT

Fair

75 °F
(24 °C) Humidity: 42 %
Wind Speed: N 15 G 24 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1014.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 50 °F (10 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
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Quoting SuperYooper:
Hello all. Tired of watching football for a second.

Looks like everyone is going Florida crazy on the comments.

Lets all make sure that we go crazy when the models come out, especially making sure we mention a Florida hit every 7 posts.

And please, could we have more Wilma pictures and videos posted? That will calm everyone down better than anything else.

Thank you for your time.


Sure, but turn your sound up for this one!!!

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Said who?


Everybody.
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426. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:


of course because 7-10 days ago we were forcasted to have a major storm on our doorstep..



LOL!

Can't trust models long-range.
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Watch Out
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
I dont care what is coming to South Florida as long as it is gone by 8pm next Saturday for the RUSH concert. LOL
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We need an ASCAT pass:

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Quoting seflagamma:


of course because 7-10 days ago we were forcasted to have a major storm on our doorstep..

We have learned that the only certainty with the 7 day out forecast is that we'll all be 7 days older.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5533
Quoting seflagamma:


of course because 7-10 days ago we were forcasted to have a major storm on our doorstep..



Said who?
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.
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Quoting Grothar:
GFS at 90 hours



GFS at 240 hours



Not looking good for us for the next week and a half plus.
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Hello all. Tired of watching football for a second.

Looks like everyone is going Florida crazy on the comments.

Lets all make sure that we go crazy when the models come out, especially making sure we mention a Florida hit every 7 posts.

And please, could we have more Wilma pictures and videos posted? That will calm everyone down better than anything else.

Thank you for your time.
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Quoting IKE:
...LISA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...


Atlantic is free of a named storm.


of course because 7-10 days ago we were forcasted to have a major storm on our doorstep..

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Point of interest.....if you click on the last link in Dr. Master's blog above "The Sleeping Giant" link .....and read the blog comments starting with the last page. This is from 3 years ago.
.
.
As Yogi Berra said, "It's dejavu all over again"
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5533
Quoting IKE:
...LISA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...


Atlantic is free of a named storm.


Well, that will not last long.
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GFS at 90 hours



GFS at 240 hours

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
curious to see what happens tonight, lets see if we get some good convection fire up, and the circulation gets down to the surface
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I would mention Ex-Julia on the 8PM TWO.

Been watching it since this morning, convection has gotten more organized.
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410. IKE
...LISA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...


Atlantic is free of a named storm.
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409. JLPR2
According to the 850mb vort...
CATL low a little stronger.
Ex-Julia weakening.
Caribbean low organizing.
Lisa, practically no change.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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