Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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when should we have an actual (1) center of circulation to track?
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
405 PM CDT sun Sep 26 2010


Synopsis...
satellite and observational data show the strong upper level
cyclone and cold front moving south into the lower Mississippi
Valley. The cold front has pushed through southwest Mississippi
and is currently approaching areas from near Baton Rouge to
Franklinton to near Hattiesburg.


Short term...
the upper level storm system and cold front will continue to move
south and southeast tonight with the cold front pushing through
the coastal waters by daybreak on Monday. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of
the afternoon...then activity is expected to become more scattered
in advance of the cold front after sunset tonight. A few of the
storms have exhibited some elevated rotation and may produce a
funnel cloud or two...or an isolated waterspout near the coast and
over the coastal waters. Cooler and drier air will surge in behind
the front bringing the first significant change of airmass of this
fall season.


Clear and cooler nights and sunny and pleasantly warm days with
low humidity are expected on Monday through Tuesday. Many of the
northern/inland areas will see low temperatures in the middle 50s on
Monday night/Tuesday morning.


Long term...
will be watching for the possibility of tropical development over
the northwest Caribbean Sea by late Tuesday or Wednesday...however
the models have become stronger with the upper low/trough over the
area from Georgia the Florida Panhandle into the northeast/central
Gulf of Mexico. This means the central Gulf Coast will be very
protected from any tropical system.



North to northwest flow aloft and a continued resupply of dry
surface air will keep the skies mostly clear with no chance of
rain from Tuesday through next weekend. Temperatures will warm
slightly by Wednesday and Thursday...then start to cool down
slightly again towards the weekend.


22/dew point
&&
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505. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Patrap:
Here comes Fall...!

O boy,..U betcha.




I talked to my mom up in McComb, she said its already starting too feel great there!
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503. IKE
Quoting doorman79:


Hey Ike, can I have a link to where you get the local discussions? Thanks


It's on each cities forecast page on this website...right below the 7th day of the forecast...listed as Scientific Forecaster Discussion (NWS)
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Here comes Fall...!

O boy,..U betcha.


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Quoting IKE:


Just looking at Mobile,AL. forecast....

Monday Night
Cooler...clear. Lows 53 to 58. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.


Hey Ike, can I have a link to where you get the local discussions? Thanks
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499. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
According to the non-tropical NAM south Florida should begin to get tropical moisture in about 48 hours (Tuesday), with the center of the 'hurricane' moving inland in about 84 hours (Thursday).

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497. IKE
Quoting Zorfwaddle:




Hot dang! Time to open all the windows and air the place out here in P-Cola!

George


Just looking at Mobile,AL. forecast....

Monday Night
Cooler...clear. Lows 53 to 58. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

It should be there soon. I'm in College Station and it is great here!


Cool, The Woodlands here so should be soon.
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Quoting IKE:


I agree...that will get turned north at some time in the next few days.


My local forecast is for a low of 57 Monday night and 54 to 57 Tuesday night.




Hot dang! Time to open all the windows and air the place out here in P-Cola!

George
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Quoting winter123:

Ex Julia looks great. Small but well defined circulation with deep convection persisting right over the center. Could be a TD right now. Do you have a loop of that floater??


No, but go here.

Scroll down, choose the length of your animation, and then click on Ex-Julia. (There is no button, you have to find her on the satellite map. She's in the top right corner.)

You can also change the channel above the Satellite map to Infrared or Water Vapor.
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Quoting swlaaggie:


take Lake Charles off the list for now

can't remember when it's been this dry(been here since 1999) - I'm watering right now

getting ridiculous - front is moving through with no precip and the NWS says it's supposed to remain dry for as far out as they can go


The story dates from 5/2007 and stats are older than that. New ball game since then.
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Quoting AustinTXWeather:

The weather has turned amazing here, too!
That would be good for all the people thats jumping off tall buildings today ,lol unless there ucla fans anyway.
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Quoting augfan:

I live in the St. Augustine area on top of 4000 feet of sand, the original coast of Florida, currently 41 feet above sea level. One inch of rain drains in 20 minutes. All of us, you too, perhaps, actually draw from the Florida Aquifer, which collects the rainfall.
No rain, no AQ, thirst. Almost anybody can understand that.
I am allowed to water, one day a week, Sunday, after 4PM. I tried that, turned off the irrigation, went with xeroscaped plants which use minimal water. Just finished replacing those plants, dead of thirst, at a cost of over a thousand dollars. My irrigation is running again, 30 days for new plantings, and then I'll think about that one day/week business again.
'


we have water restrictions also..it is a political thing, . but our water tables are very high and all our canals and lakes are above flood level...and the Everglades are flooded.

you are in an area that needs rain, I was not talking to you.
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Quoting swlaaggie:


God's country.

:-)

It certainly is! You can definitely feel that here in the weather today. Thanks and Gig 'Em!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


The annual average precipitation for here is 57.78 Inches. So far we have had 16.21 inches. The Forest Rangers are beginning to talk about the fire dangers and the signs are up all around telling us what fire danger status we are at. I live alongside a National Forest.


Rest my case

:-)
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487. IKE
Quoting Stats56:


Begging for it get here to Houston. Soon I hope.


Here's your discussion....

BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ANOTHER BENEFIT OF THE FRONT PUSHING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...IS ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AS ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE MODELS...WOULD TRACK WELL
EAST OF THE AREA...AND NOT IMPACT THE TEXAS COAST.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECTING PERSISTENT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS TO
KEEP RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A REINFORCING PUSH OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION...AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE PLAINS.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

It should be there soon. I'm in College Station and it is great here!


God's country.

:-)
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Quoting swlaaggie:


take Lake Charles off the list for now

can't remember when it's been this dry(been here since 1999) - I'm watering right now

getting ridiculous - front is moving through with no precip and the NWS says it's supposed to remain dry for as far out as they can go


The annual average precipitation for here is 57.78 Inches. So far we have had 16.21 inches. The Forest Rangers are beginning to talk about the fire dangers and the signs are up all around telling us what fire danger status we are at. I live alongside a National Forest.
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Quoting Stats56:


Begging for it get here to Houston. Soon I hope.

It should be there soon. I'm in College Station and it is great here!
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Quoting seflagamma:
You know... all you Florida "I MUST HAVE RAIN EVERYDAY" people need to know.

we get more rain in one month of our dry season than most areas in California get their entire year! and most of the CONUS does not get the rain we get here in Florida.

We are way too spoiled with our wanting so much rain all the time.

I love rain and we need rain to keep our tropical gardens and swamps..but get a grip on the whining.....right now the Panhandle needs rain, the rest of us are still OK..

if we get a wet TC in the next few weeks, South & South Central FLA will be in trouble.

I live in the St. Augustine area on top of 4000 feet of sand, the original coast of Florida, currently 41 feet above sea level. One inch of rain drains in 20 minutes. All of us, you too, perhaps, actually draw from the Florida Aquifer, which collects the rainfall.
No rain, no AQ, thirst. Almost anybody can understand that.
I am allowed to water, one day a week, Sunday, after 4PM. I tried that, turned off the irrigation, went with xeroscaped plants which use minimal water. Just finished replacing those plants, dead of thirst, at a cost of over a thousand dollars. My irrigation is running again, 30 days for new plantings, and then I'll think about that one day/week business again.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


So I guess we are looking at the blob moving east off the coast of Mexico? This could be what the GFS says will be near or around South Florida in 84 hours?
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

Excerpt:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS, BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS, LEADING TO A HIGH THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS, AS WELL AS VERY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS ON THE LOCAL WATERS.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We need an ASCAT pass:


Ex Julia looks great. Small but well defined circulation with deep convection persisting right over the center. Could be a TD right now. Do you have a loop of that floater??
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.


Begging for it get here to Houston. Soon I hope.
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Afternoon Everyone!


Come on cool weather! WOO HOO
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what is the strenth of the system the models are showing when it appraches sw fla?
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting AustinTXWeather:

The weather has turned amazing here, too!

Send it south!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow! What a Cold Front:

Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport
Lat: 32.83 Lon: -97.35 Elev: 687
Last Update on Sep 26, 3:53 pm CDT

Fair

75 °F
(24 °C) Humidity: 42 %
Wind Speed: N 15 G 24 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1014.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 50 °F (10 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

The weather has turned amazing here, too!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Anyone have a Close up of the Broad LLC ?
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Quoting weatherman12345:
Does anybody have a closeup on our Caribbean system


Visable loop
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466. IKE
Quoting JLPR2:


Should drag Ex-Julia with it too.


I agree...that will get turned north at some time in the next few days.


My local forecast is for a low of 57 Monday night and 54 to 57 Tuesday night.
............................................


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING AREAS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO
FRANKLINTON TO NEAR HATTIESBURG.

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...THEN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME ELEVATED ROTATION AND MAY PRODUCE A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR TWO...OR AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS OF THIS
FALL SEASON.

CLEAR AND COOLER NIGHTS AND SUNNY AND PLEASANTLY WARM DAYS WITH
LOW HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MANY OF THE
NORTHERN/INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ON
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
THE MODELS HAVE BECOME STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
AREA FROM GEORGIA THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEAST/CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MEANS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE VERY
PROTECTED FROM ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED RESUPPLY OF DRY
SURFACE AIR WILL KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN START TO COOL DOWN
SLIGHTLY AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
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looking at visible images the Broad LLC continues to become better organized , all it needs is to become better defined, good convection and were are set to go
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Quoting PcolaDan:

"The 10 rainiest cities in the U.S. by amount of annual rainfall include:" (lower 48)

* Mobile, Alabama--67 inches average annual rainfall; 59 average annual rainy days
* Pensacola, Florida--65 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* New Orleans, Louisiana--64 inches average annual rainfall; 59 average annual rainy days
* West Palm Beach, Florida--63 inches average annual rainfall; 58 average annual rainy days
* Lafayette, Louisiana--62 inches average annual rainfall; 55 average annual rainy days
* Baton Rouge, Louisiana--62 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* Miami, Florida--62 inches average annual rainfall; 57 average annual rainy days
* Port Arthur, Texas--61 inches average annual rainfall; 51 average annual rainy days
* Tallahassee, Florida--61 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
* Lake Charles, Louisiana--58 inches average annual rainfall; 50 average annual rainy days


Wow. I'm surprised Seattle, or NW in general, to not be on that list.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11547
Here are ten records, with my city highlighted, that I want absolutely nothing to do with.

10 coldest cities
Average annual temperature, F
entire 50 state rank

1. International Falls, Minnesota 36.4
2. Duluth, Minnesota 38.2
3. Caribou, Maine 38.9
4. Marquette, Michigan 39.2
5. Sault Ste Marie, Michigan 39.7
6. Fargo, North Dakota 40.5
7. Williston, North Dakota 40.8
8. Alamosa, Colorado 41.2
9. Bismarck, North Dakota 41.3
10. St. Cloud, Minnesota 41.4

10 snowiest cities
Avg annual precipitation in inches

1. Blue Canyon, California 240.8
2. Marquette, Michigan 144.5
3. Sault Ste Marie, Michigan 116.7
4. Syracuse, New York 111.6
5. Caribou, Maine 110.4
6. Mount Shasta, California 104.9
7. Lander, Wyoming 102.5
8. Flagstaff, Arizona 99.9
9. Sexton Summit, Oregon 97.8
10. Muskegon, Michigan 97.0

10 rainiest cities
Number of days per year with rain

1. Hilo, Hawaii 277
2. Quillayute, Washington 210
3. Astoria, Oregon 191
4. Elkins, West Virginia 171
5. Syracuse, New York 171
6. Buffalo, New York 169
7. Marquette, Michigan 168
8. Sault Ste Marie, Michigan 166
9. Erie, Pennsylvania 165
10. Binghamton, New York 162
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Dont expect fast oganization with a monsoonal feature.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting ConchHondros:


Where I live in Oklahoma all lawns are brown all summer unless, like me...you water them


just a guess - west of I-35

when I lived in Edmond, I-35 was a literal dividing line - relatively wet and green starting a few feet to the east and dry and brown beginning a few to the west

:-)
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#420:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Said who?


Here you go:




2211. MiamiHurricanes09 12:20 PM AST on September 18, 2010
At 120 hours, the system constantly being developed by the GFS begins its genesis in the central Caribbean.



Interesting the GOM...

Forecast for 95L
An upper-level high pressure system lies to the west of 95L, near the coast of Nicaragua. The clockwise flow of air around this high will bring a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear over 95L today. By Friday, 95L will move more underneath this upper-level high, causing the shear to decline. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday afternoon. This drop in shear may allow for rapid intensification of 95L as it approaches landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border on Friday night and early Saturday morning. NHC is giving the disturbance an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.


Figure 2. Forecast track of 95L from an ensemble of runs of the GFS model done at 2am EDT this morning.

The future of 95L depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If 95L misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Monday, as predicted by last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) run of the GFDL model. However, if 95L spends significant time over Honduras, as predicted by the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. 95L is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to slow and turn more to the north. 95L will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of 95L spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains mostly over land, 95L will still generate extremely heavy rains over Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force 95L westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing 95L northwards across Western Cuba and into Florida. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of 95L are high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that determine how much time the storm spends over land. One measure of the uncertainty in 95L's future track can be gained by viewing the ensemble forecast from the GFS model. An ensemble forecast is generated by taking the initial conditions in the atmosphere and making slight variations in the temperature, pressure, and humidity fields. Twenty or so tweaks of the initial conditions are made, and the GFS model run twenty separate times for each new set of initial conditions. The resulting ensemble of model runs gives one an idea of how sensitive the future track of the storm might be to errors in characterizing the initial state of the atmosphere. As one can see from this morning's GFS ensemble run (Figure 2), there are a wide range of possibilities for where 95L might go. The main thing I am confident of at this point is that 95L will generate very heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday through Tuesday that will likely cause dangerous flooding rains and life-threatening mudslides.



I am getting family interruptions but if you all just go back and re read the blogs from August forward.. you wil see.. the long raing forcast models beyond 6 days have been wrong on most of the systems that never developed.


got to go for now.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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