Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaptnDan142:


I believe that would be the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

I think in the U.P. it is Winter and The 4th of July.

;-)


LOL!
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has stormw left this blog?i see his posts on hurricane hollow but not here for a week
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes.


18z GFS:

36 Hours

Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting treehuggingsister:
It used to me be sitting in an artist tent at the Seafood fest and watching the water pour in ~ not missing that part of it a lick! And the upper 50's they're predicting are tickling my fancy like nothing else! SWEATER time ~ just hope it comes close.


Well, Friday everyone was soaked, but from sweat. Yesterday I think they nay have had the evening rained out. It's not the same anyway. What happened to all the different local gumbo, baked fish, mullet...? Mostly fried any more. No variety. :(
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I remember the season's as: Winter and Road Work.


I believe that would be the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

I think in the U.P. it is Winter and The 4th of July.

;-)
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Hey,,if the NHC can chuck up a sonde maybe this Lil Spin can get one mo named system by Sunset.

Double,pfthhhh


NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


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OK. The fall weather bragging is getting on my nerves...
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I remember the season's as: Winter and Road Work.


Now thats funny lol
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


8pm?
Yes.
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Quoting 47n91w:


70 miles (or so) east of Duluth, MN, and I had my first frost last night (33.5 degrees this morning at my house). Further inland away from Lk Sup got down to 25 degrees. Two seasons each year... 1) Winter 2) the other five months that make life bearable.


I remember the season's as: Winter and Road Work.
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It used to me be sitting in an artist tent at the Seafood fest and watching the water pour in ~ not missing that part of it a lick! And the upper 50's they're predicting are tickling my fancy like nothing else! SWEATER time ~ just hope it comes close.
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545. IKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That cold front should be reaching the Florida panhandle by midnight. Think it's moving faster then they thought....

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Quoting fldude99:


for real?
look at the extended forecast for Marianna,FL
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GOM IR Loop

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The Carribean "Monsoon" has the same look that generated Hurricane Alma in 1966. A big fist pointing north. One storm will emerge, it may take 4-5 days. It will cross Western Cuba and go up Florida's west coast.

Seen this before, I do not require the Reed Model.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There already appears to be an area of low pressure to initialize on, so I would assume at 0z.


8pm?
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting Seflhurricane:
50"s for north florida next week !!


for real?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Any Idea of when it will be designated an invest?
There already appears to be an area of low pressure to initialize on, so I would assume at 0z.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No. As long as the forecaster in charge as the NHC wants model plots run on a specific disturbance they can designate it an invest.

There are no requirements.


Any Idea of when it will be designated an invest?
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
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Quoting treehuggingsister:

And the boy at Keesler was just complaing we here in P-cola were getting all the rain...


Yea..well thats ok..it cleared out for the most part & looking forward to a cool down.
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I'm surprised at no mention of Julia.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Does it Qualify to be an Invest?

1- Convection
2- Criculation
3- Persistant
No. As long as the forecaster in charge as the NHC wants model plots run on a specific disturbance they can designate it an invest.

There are no requirements.
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Quoting Dakster:


Maybe not... What happens if I die first?


You'll still be 7 days older - you just won't know it.
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I doubt never has so much been made of so Little.

Pfffth.

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Quoting Patrap:


McComb has the NW Wind shift and falling.

Come on down babe..!


Current Conditions

McComb, Mississippi (Airport)
Updated: 46 min 55 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
83 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 67 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 17 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 85 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles


Yea u right! Just walked outside and nothing here yet lol.
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Hurricane Season has end for Puerto Rico!!!! Now every puertorican can breath !!!
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Not so bad Looking in the Western Caribbean.

WV Large Image,False Color

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Does it Qualify to be an Invest?

1- Convection
2- Criculation
3- Persistant
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting fldude99:


yup..here it comes! right around the time of seafood festival in pensacola every year it seems..Best time of year..I've grown to HATE the summers on the gulf coast

And the boy at Keesler was just complaing we here in P-cola were getting all the rain...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We already have one (1).
we just need it ti become an invest to have model runs on it
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Quoting SuperYooper:
Here are ten records, with my city highlighted, that I want absolutely nothing to do with.

10 coldest cities
Average annual temperature, F
entire 50 state rank

1. International Falls, Minnesota 36.4
2. Duluth, Minnesota 38.2
3. Caribou, Maine 38.9
4. Marquette, Michigan 39.2
5. Sault Ste Marie, Michigan 39.7
6. Fargo, North Dakota 40.5
7. Williston, North Dakota 40.8
8. Alamosa, Colorado 41.2
9. Bismarck, North Dakota 41.3
10. St. Cloud, Minnesota 41.4

10 snowiest cities
Avg annual precipitation in inches

1. Blue Canyon, California 240.8
2. Marquette, Michigan 144.5
3. Sault Ste Marie, Michigan 116.7
4. Syracuse, New York 111.6
5. Caribou, Maine 110.4
6. Mount Shasta, California 104.9
7. Lander, Wyoming 102.5
8. Flagstaff, Arizona 99.9
9. Sexton Summit, Oregon 97.8
10. Muskegon, Michigan 97.0

10 rainiest cities
Number of days per year with rain

1. Hilo, Hawaii 277
2. Quillayute, Washington 210
3. Astoria, Oregon 191
4. Elkins, West Virginia 171
5. Syracuse, New York 171
6. Buffalo, New York 169
7. Marquette, Michigan 168
8. Sault Ste Marie, Michigan 166
9. Erie, Pennsylvania 165
10. Binghamton, New York 162


70 miles (or so) east of Duluth, MN, and I had my first frost last night (33.5 degrees this morning at my house). Further inland away from Lk Sup got down to 25 degrees. Two seasons each year... 1) Winter 2) the other five months that make life bearable.
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50"s for north florida next week !!
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Surprises most people. Pacific Northwest gets it fractions of an inch over the course of time. We can get 2+ inches from one thunderstorm, of which we have plenty.


Rode some ships out of Bremerton a few years ago... nice weather, even for December...
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518. xcool

<84/55
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
when should we have an actual (1) center of circulation to track?


We already have one (1).
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Quoting Patrap:
Here comes Fall...!

O boy,..U betcha.




yup..here it comes! right around the time of seafood festival in pensacola every year it seems..Best time of year..I've grown to HATE the summers on the gulf coast
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Quoting Seastep:


Wow. I'm surprised Seattle, or NW in general, to not be on that list.


Good Afternoon...I lived there for 7 years...that is in inches...the rain up there is very light...at times like a mist...totally unlike the buckets we get down here. (I live in Mobile.)

Looks like some northwest cities were on the list that SuperYooper posted.
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Quoting seflagamma:
'


we have water restrictions also..it is a political thing, . but our water tables are very high and all our canals and lakes are above flood level...and the Everglades are flooded.

you are in an area that needs rain, I was not talking to you.


Depending on the rain, the water restrictions are pure BS. They use any excuse to lower them but almost never raise them back up once the rain comes again. I water as needed. Sometimes more than restrictions and sometimes less.
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Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting doorman79:


I talked to my mom up in McComb, she said its already starting too feel great there!


McComb has the NW Wind shift and falling.

Come on down babe..!


Current Conditions

McComb, Mississippi (Airport)
Updated: 46 min 55 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
83 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 67 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 17 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 85 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
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Quoting Seastep:


Wow. I'm surprised Seattle, or NW in general, to not be on that list.


Surprises most people. Pacific Northwest gets it fractions of an inch over the course of time. We can get 2+ inches from one thunderstorm, of which we have plenty.
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Tuesday...Partly cloudy in the morning...then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph.
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Quoting IKE:


Just looking at Mobile,AL. forecast....

Monday Night
Cooler...clear. Lows 53 to 58. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.


Thanks Ike... Been waiting for it to cool down so we can get back to playing music out on the patio at the bar. Worried about the storms tho...
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when should we have an actual (1) center of circulation to track?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.