Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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608. xcool
JUST rain maker 18zgfs
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The system then becomes stationary over the Florida straights and strengthens into a pretty strong tropical storm. A fourth cyclone is in the making in the northwestern Caribbean. 144 hours:



It sounds crazy but what people do not realize is that with a monsoon present in the NW Caribbean this can occur

In fact that is how the West Pacific ends up with so many systems almost every year, monsoon is present there and spits out many storms in succession
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Quoting breald:


What is that big blob along the northeast coast?
A non-tropical 'Nicole'.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




poor FL


Think so Taz?

If everything these models have spun up in the past few weeks actually happened, Florida would have already been renamed Atlantis.

Remember a few years ago when there was a model that would spin up storm after storm, and they never happened? Everybody said the model was on crack. You couldn't say "CMC" in here without adding "LOL" in there.

Looks like more of the same recently from the models.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The pattern is setting up for multiple hits on Florida. Whether it comes in the form the GFS is forecasting it, remains to be seen, however, all I can say is for you to be prepared for the worst. It would be recommended for you to get your preparations ready as models are trending on a south Florida landfall in 3-4 days (even if the system stays weak or doesn't develop at all).

Here's the GFS at 96 hours. A second weaker system is beginning to take shape in the northwestern Caribbean...likely to take a similar track to its counterpart.



I'm already preparing for the worst. I'm getting everything that's small done now. Since i'm 18 and go to college, i'm waiting for the return of my mom Tuesday afternoon to get everything finished up in preperation for the arrival(s) of the storm(s).
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The system then becomes stationary over the Florida straights and strengthens into a pretty strong tropical storm. A fourth cyclone is in the making in the northwestern Caribbean. 144 hours:

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
108 hours; a weak tropical storm/strong tropical depression makes landfall along southern Florida.



120 hours; a third system, stronger than the second one develops along the straights and is likely headed towards the same direction as the previous two cyclones.



What is that big blob along the northeast coast?
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Quoting Patrap:


Traveling on Vacation or Business jupiter?

Thats a Nice place SJ.

Business. I am here every other month for work. Usually I have to watch for storms when I come here but this time I have to watch home. I am supposed to head home Wednesday afternoon but may head back on Tuesday so I don't get stuck here.
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599. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Ike, is that why where getting rain right know, the cold front coming thru? I think my grass just grew 2".
sheri


Yeah...if you're in Mobile...the cold front is moving through now.
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Quoting newportrinative:


I'm on my 3rd round of "medicine". I picked N.O. to win and that missed field goal was brutal. Now where is my glass, ummm I mean medicine......


(throwing my WE DAT shirt in the dirty clothes) Shouldnt have tried to kick on first down..esp. after the tempo buster timeout by the dirty birds. Wait till we get 'em at the end of the year...they'll wish they had never won that game! lol Finally a normal week for the Saints...should start to see better performance here on out.. TWO DAT!

And what's the latest certainty on a TC over central FL? Are more models than the GFS predicting the same? Am I gonna get soaked riding my scooter to work this week? lol
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597. 7544
looks like her spin is beggining to fill in invest at 8 td shortly after that wait watch and see
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
108 hours; a weak tropical storm/strong tropical depression makes landfall along southern Florida.



120 hours; a third system, stronger than the second one develops along the straights and is likely headed towards the same direction as the previous two cyclones.





poor FL
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How much rain do u think we could get here in jacksonville,florida BenBIogger?
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108 hours; a weak tropical storm/strong tropical depression makes landfall along southern Florida.



120 hours; a third system, stronger than the second one develops along the straights and is likely headed towards the same direction as the previous two cyclones.

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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
What could jacksonville,florida get from this?


Rain.
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Quoting Patrap:


How anyone could have been on the phone during that OT period is a small miracle in itself.

Your friend must still have a earache.


Yeah, I'm sure he does. *G* One day I hope to go down to a game.
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Quoting IKE:


That cold front should be reaching the Florida panhandle by midnight. Think it's moving faster then they thought....



Ike, is that why where getting rain right know, the cold front coming thru? I think my grass just grew 2".
sheri
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so invest anytime today?
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Quoting cirrocumulus:


Nicole is starting to form.


I think you are onto something there.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Miami, what are the chances of the GFS holding true to a back-to-back-to-back hits for South Florida?
The pattern is setting up for multiple hits on Florida. Whether it comes in the form the GFS is forecasting it, remains to be seen, however, all I can say is for you to be prepared for the worst. It would be recommended for you to get your preparations ready as models are trending on a south Florida landfall in 3-4 days (even if the system stays weak or doesn't develop at all).

Here's the GFS at 96 hours. A second weaker system is beginning to take shape in the northwestern Caribbean...likely to take a similar track to its counterpart.

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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
What could jacksonville,florida get from this?


Mostly rain and windy conditions, if Nicole develops.
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What could jacksonville,florida get from this?
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Quoting JupiterFL:


I am in San Juan right now and haven't seen any rain to speak of. Overcast yes but zero rain.


Traveling on Vacation or Business jupiter?

Thats a Nice place SJ.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Southern Florida landfall in 72 hours--3 days. A tropical storm similar to Fay is becoming more and more likely.



Miami, what are the chances of the GFS holding true to a back-to-back-to-back hits for South Florida?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
A variety of hurricane track forecast models are run operationally for the Atlantic hurricane basin:

The basic model that is used as a "no-skill" forecast to compare other models against is CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence), which is a multiple regression statistical model that best utilizes the persistence of the current motion and also incorporates climatological track information (Aberson 1998). Surprisingly, CLIPER was difficult to beat with numerical model forecasts until the 1980s.
The Beta and Advection Model (BAM), follows a trajectory in the pressure-weighted vertically-averaged horizontal wind from the Aviation model beginning at the current storm location, with a correction that accounts for the beta effect (Marks 1992). Three versions of this model, one with a shallow-layer (BAMS), one with a medium-layer (BAMM), and one with a deep-layer (BAMD), are run. BAMS runs using the 850-700 mb layer, BAMM with the 850-400 mb layer, and BAMD with the 850-200 mb layer. The deep-layer version was run operationally for primary synoptic times in 1989; all three versions have been run four times per day since 1990.
A barotropic hurricane track forecast model LBAR, for Limited-Area Barotropic Model, is being run operationally every 6 hours.
The NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS), formerly known as the Aviation and MRF models (Lord 1993) has been used for track forecasting since the 1992 hurricane season. An ensemble of low-resolution runs is available four times daily.
A triply-nested movable mesh primitive equation model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Bender et al 1993), known as the GFDL model, has provided forecasts since the 1992 hurricane season. One version (GFDL0 uses GFS fields for boundary conditions; a second version (GFDN) uses NOGAPS fields for boundary conditions.
A doubly-nested movable mesh primitive equation non-hydrostatic model known as H-WRF (for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model), has provided forecasts since 2006. It uses GFS fields for boundary conditions.
The United Kingdom Meterological Office's global model (UKMET) is utilized for forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclones around the world (Radford 1994). NHC starting receiving these operationally in 1996.
The United States Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction Systems (NOGAPS) is also a global numerical model that shows skill in forecasting tropical cyclone track (Fiorino et al. 1993). This model was also first received operationally at the National Hurricane Center during 1996. An ensemble of low-resolution runs is available twice daily.
The Canadian Meteorological Center's Global Model (CMC) provides forecasts twice per day. An ensemble of low-resolution runs is available twice daily.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts's Global Model (ECMWF) provides forecasts twice per day. It has proven to be the best model for track forecasting, and is the highest resolution global model available. An ensemble of low-resolution runs is available twice daily.
The Japanese Meteorological Agency's (JMA) Global Spectral Model provides forecasts, both in high-resolution deterministic runs and low-resolution ensemble runs.

Thank you for that information - very useful. Are there any statistics available as to historical accuracy for these models?
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Nicole is starting to form.
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Quoting Patrap:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 544 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 523 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 411 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 411 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 307 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 304 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010


I am in San Juan right now and haven't seen any rain to speak of. Overcast yes but zero rain.
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GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
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Step away from the fork... think it will pass quickly.
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NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Was a Temporary Loss of Imagery from the Squall at the radar site seems.

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Southern Florida landfall in 72 hours--3 days. A tropical storm similar to Fay is becoming more and more likely.

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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings



SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 544 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 523 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 411 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 411 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 307 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 304 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
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Seems I put the fork down too soon......
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EURO says game on for a big storm for the eastern US in the 8-10 day time frame, look at the big differences between the GFS and EURO.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Well, Friday everyone was soaked, but from sweat. Yesterday I think they nay have had the evening rained out. It's not the same anyway. What happened to all the different local gumbo, baked fish, mullet...? Mostly fried any more. No variety. :(

Oh, I know what you mean. It's had so much of a carnival feel for so long, food-wise, it's really a shame. All these people from out of town come in and the seafood is ghastly. Were there any local restaurants this year? We didn't get downtown at all ~ had a car go ka-flooey on me and things to do today.
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Quoting TOMSEFLA:


Check your WUMail
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48 hours:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.