Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Pressure keeps dropping at 19.9 85.0

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Quoting cirrocumulus:
convection appears to be getting going over the center lets see what we have in the morning
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Quoting weatherman12345:
MH09, how strong is the first system according to the gfs
(My best guess) 50-60mph.
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651. 7544
looks like if we get a td tonight or tomorow with all the rest that follow this one the watches and warnings could remain in place for several days as the stroms will not be that far apart could you imagine how many cones will have fla so fla in them all at one time this could make history
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looks  like we have tropical cyclone formation just east of yucatan
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
You better get a bigger boat.
I don't think living 32 floors up will be enough...lol.
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Quoting mossyhead:
Well I did not get any answer at all.


WUmail (because I know you haven't been here in a while and aren't a trouble maker) :)
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


WUMail sent.


Capt. you have WUmail. Thanks
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The fourth tropical storm then makes landfall over south Florida. If this were to verify (which it is unlikely that it will), it looks like I will not see the sun for another 7-8 days. 174 hours:



Does any other model pick up on this many storms? WOW!
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
You better get a bigger boat.



lol
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The fourth tropical storm then makes landfall over south Florida. If this were to verify (which it is unlikely that it will), it looks like I will not see the sun for another 7-8 days. 174 hours:

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Quoting mossyhead:
Well I did not get any answer at all.


WUMail sent.
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Been watching the clouds in that direction all day. Only to see them dissipate before making it to us. :(


We didn't get much rain at all. It was pitiful. It's already over.
sheri
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Working on his update.


Or polishing. I get those terms confused. I heard it's cloudy in the Carib.
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634. xcool


ouch 50s on monday
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Quoting weatherbro:


Starting next Sunday it's our turn!!! Accuweather shows lows in the 50's for Orlando...Yippee!!!

I'll believe that when I feel it. It's too early to be that cool.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




why are you saying thing that are not even ture


Link please?
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631. IKE
Quoting weatherbro:


Starting next Sunday it's our turn!!! Accuweather shows lows in the 50's for Orlando...Yippee!!!


I've read next weekends trough may be even stronger, so your forecast may be right.
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Quoting IKE:


Hope you get some rain. I've had .13 today after .12 yesterday.

Beach and downtown got some yesterday. And north of us. If we don't get any from this next line, I'm afraid it's going to be a while before we see rain again.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Yeah... Well, the question was answered a couple times after the quoted text, so maybe....

Amy? Pass me a fork please?
Well I did not get any answer at all.
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Quoting IKE:


I agree...that will get turned north at some time in the next few days.


My local forecast is for a low of 57 Monday night and 54 to 57 Tuesday night.
............................................


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING AREAS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO
FRANKLINTON TO NEAR HATTIESBURG.

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...THEN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME ELEVATED ROTATION AND MAY PRODUCE A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR TWO...OR AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS OF THIS
FALL SEASON.

CLEAR AND COOLER NIGHTS AND SUNNY AND PLEASANTLY WARM DAYS WITH
LOW HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MANY OF THE
NORTHERN/INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ON
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
THE MODELS HAVE BECOME STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
AREA FROM GEORGIA THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEAST/CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MEANS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE VERY
PROTECTED FROM ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED RESUPPLY OF DRY
SURFACE AIR WILL KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN START TO COOL DOWN
SLIGHTLY AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.


Starting next Sunday it's our turn!!! Accuweather shows lows in the 50's for Orlando...Yippee!!!
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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
How much rain do u think we could get here in jacksonville,florida BenBIogger?
over the coarse of the next 7 days 10 to 15 inches of rain is likly in places over north cen fla southward
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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
What could jacksonville,florida get from this?


Your local weather office does an excellent web briefing
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618. IKE
Quoting PcolaDan:

Been watching the clouds in that direction all day. Only to see them dissipate before making it to us. :(


Hope you get some rain. I've had .13 today after .12 yesterday.
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Still there in 162 hours. Florida getting absolutely soaked.

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ex-Julia has been puuting on a pretty good show this afternoon

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html,

not saying that she will, but if she did regain TC status?

...So here's a question for the more knowledgable...

What is the longest time a storm that has been killed (i.e. last NHC Advisory), then taken to resurrect?

If Julia managed now, she would be at 162hrs, or 6.5 days?

Any educated guesses?

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Quoting IKE:


Yeah...if you're in Mobile...the cold front is moving through now.

Been watching the clouds in that direction all day. Only to see them dissipate before making it to us. :(
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


It sounds crazy but what people do not realize is that with a monsoon present in the NW Caribbean this can occur

In fact that is how the West Pacific ends up with so many systems almost every year, monsoon is present there and spits out many many storms in succession
Exactly. When this monsoonal pattern gets going, we aren't going to just get 1 storm, we're going to get several. Yes, they may not be extremely strong, but getting 3 decent tropical storms that are full of moisture in the same general vicinity, you're going to end up with problems.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A non-tropical 'Nicole'.


it looks like lots of rain...yuck
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608. xcool
JUST rain maker 18zgfs
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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