Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Oh my Gammit!

Three somethings and one Major Hurricane on the 18z GFS!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Quoting Seflhurricane:
not quite, we have days to cover that, if not the school year will be extended into middle june


Don't you love the concept of hurricane make-up days built into almost every county's calendar now?
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Quoting Floridaweathergirl:
All jokes aside.....when will South Florida receive this storm?
according to the models we will have the first one towards the middle to end of the week, and then another one towards the weekend and another one the following week if the GFS proves correct, god forbid
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Quoting weatherman12345:
sorry just hoping...
do they shut down schools for a tropical storm?
Yeah. School busses stop service at 45 mph so the schools close as well.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
i wish i am 32 yrs old !!


lol...well...lighten up a little!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There goes winter break.... to make up for those missed classes.
not quite, we have days to cover that, if not the school year will be extended into middle june
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All jokes aside.....when will South Florida receive this storm?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the GFS were to verify I would miss a couple of weeks of classes with all the tropical storm warnings that would have to be issued. Lol.


There goes winter break.... to make up for those missed classes.
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broad LLC headed towards the yucatan channel and western tip of cuba
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Quoting oakland:


Dakster, you have mail.


Back at you...
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WTH, pressure in Grand Cayman down to 1007mb, something must be brewing.
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Quoting fldude99:


Give me a freakin break..are you like 16 yrs old?
i wish i am 32 yrs old !!
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Quoting JLPR2:


Of course not, didn't you see that cow flying with a red cape at the end? XD


Cows fly? I thought it was only pigs that fly. LOL
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Uh-oh.


Looks to be Bumpy downstream for some,..

LOL
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
very insane that would break a record


Yep, sure sounds like it would... that is what the GFS shows though, right?
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I live on the west side of Mobile and I have received 1.8" of rain this afternoon
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Quoting WandoMarsh:
Hey Patrap...

Saw you said something about Storm... what happened?



No comment.I missed the whole debacle with a concussion fortunately.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
384 hours/16 days.

*Obviously this isn't meant to be taken seriously.
now here is a good question how can 2 tropical systems be so close together be able to survive/ able to go the same direction ????
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18z GFS total precip


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And just as the water begins to reside, an intense hurricane is sent my way. Looks like the GFS doesn't like south Florida. LOL.





nop we got room in CA
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If the GFS were to verify I would miss a couple of weeks of classes with all the tropical storm warnings that would have to be issued. Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
680. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
384 hours/16 days.

*Obviously this isn't meant to be taken seriously.


Of course not, didn't you see that cow flying with a red cape at the end? XD
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
384 hours/16 days.

*Obviously this isn't meant to be taken seriously.
miami i expect in the next TWO to be 20-30% for the NW carribean
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Gonna be a wet week

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676. 7544
it could happen tomorow so fla may see this in a dif form lol
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Quoting weatherman12345:

how many hours out is that
384 hours/16 days.

*Obviously this isn't meant to be taken seriously.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Don't look at 384hr, you might faint!!!
Too late. :)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IceSlater:
According to the GFS...

I see a storm hitting S. Florida on Wednesday, another coming from the Caribbean on Friday/Saturday... and then another meandering just west of Florida for 1-2 days under weak steering currents, and then being pushed east over Florida from a front, after it gained strength.

If so, that's insane.

Thoughts?
very insane that would break a record
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And just as the water begins to reside, an intense hurricane is sent my way. Looks like the GFS doesn't like south Florida. LOL.

looks like a cat3
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According to the GFS...

I see a storm hitting S. Florida on Wednesday, another coming from the Caribbean on Friday/Saturday... and then another meandering just west of Florida for 1-2 days under weak steering currents, and then being pushed east over Florida from a front, after it gained strength.

If so, that's insane.

Thoughts?
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And just as the water begins to reside, an intense hurricane is sent my way. Looks like the GFS doesn't like south Florida. LOL.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting weatherman12345:

could it be stronger?


Everything is a guess now....but, yes. Intensity is very difficult to predict.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

can yuo send it to me too, i never really got the reason


same here please.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
But just think how easy it will be to fish right off your balcony. lol (Try to stay dry)
LOL, that's true.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 7544:
looks like if we get a td tonight or tomorow with all the rest that follow this one the watches and warnings could remain in place for several days as the stroms will not be that far apart could you imagine how many cones will have fla so fla in them all at one time this could make history
i truly think the GFS is having issues but that south florida will ge 2 systems i DO believe because of the steering pattern that is in place and climatology, i have been saying to everyone it only takes ONE to make it a bad season, and south florida is going to get nailed in some way shape or form !!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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