Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Lets Say 2 Storms the GFS Shows dont Happen

But 2 Do.


4 - 2 = 2 Possible Storms for South Florida


Scary thought but sounds reasonable given the current scenarios.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
but they are temporary as in 3-4 hrs when a front passes


Yeah, nothing like fronts we used to get in Oklahoma.
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TWO should be out within the hour
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
2004 record breaking hurricane season


I imagine so..but how does 2010 even come close to comparing to 2004? Only he can answer that
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Expect Invest 96L In the Next Two Hours.
very likely
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Quoting
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Quoting 34chip:
Does anyone know what Key West is in store for Huurricane or what? Thanks!


Continuing warm weather, with a 100% chance of Pattern matching.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting Krycek1984:


That's kind of weird...many cold fronts each fall and winter have sustained winds higher than 30 mph here in Cleveland and no one ever cancels classes.


We have strong afternoon thunderstorms as well. However, the broad scope of a Tropical Storm with potentially hours of sustained winds over 40MPH cancels classes for safety reasons. A "brief" severe storm is not a big deal and rarely causes large scale power outages, street flooding, etc...

It would be negligent to NOT cancel certain activities... And you do have snow days, right?
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743. ITCZ
Quoting Patrap:


Im sure one can find a "synopsis" on what happened.

Try googling Ego's and Toes maybe?



okie dokie, message received. :-) I may be from Lower Alabama (Tallahassee) but i can read the temperature....
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Even in South Florida the winds will gust 30+mph following a cold front. We just have to wait until December of January to get them.
but they are temporary as in 3-4 hrs when a front passes
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This pressure fall is likely in turn due to the daily diurnal fluctuations, however, today it has dropped more than usual so there must be some other force at play.

Down to 29.66in--1003.4mb.

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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Even in South Florida the winds will gust 30+mph following a cold front. We just have to wait until December or January to get them.
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Quoting Krycek1984:


That's kind of weird...many cold fronts each fall and winter have sustained winds higher than 30 mph here in Cleveland and no one ever cancels classes.


30mph sticks in my head but it could be higher. It may be like Miami-Dade and 40mph.
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Quoting 34chip:
Does anyone know what Key West is in store for Huurricane or what? Thanks!
keep tabs the next few days if not read back to older comments and you will see
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Quoting Krycek1984:


That's kind of weird...many cold fronts each fall and winter have sustained winds higher than 30 mph here in Cleveland and no one ever cancels classes.


Even in South Florida the winds will gust 30+mph following a cold front. We just have to wait until December of January to get them.
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Does anyone know what Key West is in store for Huurricane or what? Thanks!
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Quoting Krycek1984:


That's kind of weird...many cold fronts each fall and winter have sustained winds higher than 30 mph here in Cleveland and no one ever cancels classes.


That's probably because in S FL, 30mph can suddenly become 75+/hr
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Quoting Dakster:


40mph sustained in Miami-Dade County.


Same here in PBC.
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Quoting Krycek1984:


That's kind of weird...many cold fronts each fall and winter have sustained winds higher than 30 mph here in Cleveland and no one ever cancels classes.
but they cancel clases for winter storm warnings and blizzards well this is florida's version of a blizzard
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Quoting Floridaweathergirl:
All jokes aside.....when will South Florida receive this storm?


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

Excerpt:


DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS, BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
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Quoting fldude99:


Can you be a little more SPECIFIC?
2004 record breaking hurricane season
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Quoting Tazmanian:
its 04 all overe


Can you be a little more SPECIFIC?
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Quoting oakland:


If you live in Broward County it's a crap shoot. Broward County tries not to, sadly. Only if the sustained winds are over 30mph will they seriously consider canceling because it becomes dangerous for the buses to go out. So unless the county takes a direct hit schools will most likely be open. I don't know about the rest of FL. Sorry.


That's kind of weird...many cold fronts each fall and winter have sustained winds higher than 30 mph here in Cleveland and no one ever cancels classes.
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I don't really understand why the models are predicting the storms that form in the Western Carribean to be weak. All we have heard about all season is how the Carribean is ideal for strong storms due to record SSTs. Is it just the speed that they are moving and the proximity to the CONUS? Any input is appreciated!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
Quoting Seflhurricane:
now here is a good question how can 2 tropical systems be so close together be able to survive/ able to go the same direction ????
If there is a certain amount of space between them, absolutely.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21782
Quoting Dakster:


Beat me to it. ;-)

:):):)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the GFS were to verify I would miss a couple of weeks of classes with all the tropical storm warnings that would have to be issued. Lol.


I'd be missing a couple of weeks of college. Since classes are 50 minutes, they want no one walking around outisde.
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721. ITCZ
actually i am kinda curious as to what happened to Storm too

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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


The Belize radar loop has an interesting feature heading off the coast to the NorthEast. It seems to be rotating.
link please
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
to be specific 40+ here in Miami- Dade County


Beat me to it. ;-)

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718. afj3
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i will try but too many idiots on here asking the same crap over and over

Ouch! Not everyone is an expert so some people concerned about the weather may ask repeated questions from time to time....
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Quoting weatherman12345:
they shut down schools for tropical storms?


You're not serious are you?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
broad LLC headed towards the yucatan channel and western tip of cuba


The Belize radar loop has an interesting feature heading off the coast to the NorthEast. It seems to be rotating.
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But these SO FL storms you see for next week are all TS, right?
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yeah. School busses stop service at 45 mph so the schools close as well.


40mph sustained in Miami-Dade County.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yeah. School busses stop service at 45 mph so the schools close as well.
to be specific 40+ here in Miami- Dade County
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its 04 all overe
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting weatherman12345:
sorry just hoping...
do they shut down schools for a tropical storm?


If you live in Broward County it's a crap shoot. Broward County tries not to, sadly. Only if the sustained winds are over 30mph will they seriously consider canceling because it becomes dangerous for the buses to go out. So unless the county takes a direct hit schools will most likely be open. I don't know about the rest of FL. Sorry.
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Quoting fldude99:


lol...well...lighten up a little!
i will try but too many idiots on here asking the same crap over and over
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.