Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Morning, Surfmom. Have a great day and drink lots of water! Our high is supposed to be in the mid eighties, a nice break from the ninties.
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Quoting weatherwart:


That's looking to be the reasonable forecast, but then again, you never know with these things. We do have some significant low pressure, convection and a very hot bathtub sitting below a descending trof. Anything can happen.


I thought so too... it seems to ride the line between everything. Rain and a little wind is a safe bet. I actually heard one of the local guys use the term "reasonable" when describing all this. I do find it mildly ironic that after all the models and all the conjecture for weeks about this happening in the Caribbean, now that the systems are here the NHC and the NWS don't quite know what to make of them. I guess that's why nuthin's for sure when it comes to the tropics.
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1654. surfmom
Hey Aislinn -off to work, My early BARN day -got to beat the heat, I'll be feeling 90's on the other side of I75 Good Monday to all
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1653. hydrus
Quoting weatherwart:


That's looking to be the reasonable forecast, but then again, you never know with these things. We do have some significant low pressure, convection and a very hot bathtub sitting below a descending trof. Anything can happen.
NWS has a low right over South Florida on day 6...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20493
Quoting aquak9:
hi surfmom, aislnipss, wart,jupiter- all my friends'n'fiends...

not feelin' much interest in any sorta development. Rain for Orlando, southward. Not a wind over 28mph between now and next Sunday.

There, I just saved everyone a day of blogging.

hahaha- work calls!


Looking that way. FLweatherfreak is probably right about a little further east for most of the moisture.
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Quoting whepton3:
From the S. FL area discussion:

BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, A TROPICAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. THE MODELS HAVE DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY, IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE,HEAVY RAIN, AND PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER
LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTH AND IS ALSO STRONGER THAN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. IT APPEARS MOST PLAUSIBLE THAT TWO TO THREE WAVES OFDEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.


That's looking to be the reasonable forecast, but then again, you never know with these things. We do have some significant low pressure, convection and a very hot bathtub sitting below a descending trof. Anything can happen.
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Quoting aquak9:
hi surfmom, aislnipss, wart,jupiter- all my friends'n'fiends...

not feelin' much interest in any sorta development. Rain for Orlando, southward. Not a wind over 28mph between now and next Sunday.

There, I just saved everyone a day of blogging.

hahaha- work calls!


And I thought I left early for work! Have a great day, Aqua.

Morning WxLogic.
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Quoting aquak9:
hi surfmom, aislnipss, wart,jupiter- all my friends'n'fiends...

not feelin' much interest in any sorta development. Rain for Orlando, southward. Not a wind over 28mph between now and next Sunday.

There, I just saved everyone a day of blogging.

hahaha- work calls!


Don't work too hard. Try to stay dry.
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I don't believe I have ever seen a trof like that plunging so deep into the Gulf this time of year.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I think a more eastward track is in store than what the models are showing... the trof along with its dry air have already crossed into Florida and show no sign of slowing down. I think this may be a Miami, then out to sea sort of deal.


Miami. Maybe but out 2 see I don't think so. The high to the east is way too strong
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1645. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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From the S. FL area discussion:

BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, A TROPICAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. THE MODELS HAVE DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY, IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE,HEAVY RAIN, AND PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER
LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTH AND IS ALSO STRONGER THAN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. IT APPEARS MOST PLAUSIBLE THAT TWO TO THREE WAVES OFDEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
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1642. aquak9
hi surfmom, aislnipss, wart,jupiter- all my friends'n'fiends...

not feelin' much interest in any sorta development. Rain for Orlando, southward. Not a wind over 28mph between now and next Sunday.

There, I just saved everyone a day of blogging.

hahaha- work calls!
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morning everyone looks like our disturbance is firing convection near the center
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GFS develops the CATL LOW and moves it trough the northern leewards... then just north of PR, hispaniola,... then over the Bahamas then toward FL. Well that's a new solution from the GFS
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1639. surfmom
Good Morning - getting my bearing in here
MTYSPDR - good to see you SAFE

Carib looks like a Cauldron of festering trouble, looking forward to see what Levi32 has to say

Morning Aqua perhaps
& the Matt came back
they thought he was a gonner
but the Matt came back

LOL - okay no tune in the AM - back to slurping the coffee
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I think a more eastward track is in store than what the models are showing... the trof along with its dry air have already crossed into Florida and show no sign of slowing down. I think this may be a Miami, then out to sea sort of deal.
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Quoting weatherwart:
Well, look at that. Somebody's getting some nice weather. Not me, but... good morning!




lol hopefully we'll get some too.... it's too boring for late sept in the E carib
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1636. ackee
seem like the CV seasns is not over there two low one near CV another near the Island see the CMC devlops it 96 guess we see
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On the 6Z NOGAPS, 2 systems want to affect the lesser antilles.
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Quoting bjdsrq:


... and if you look at the water vapor loop, you see the ECMWF may be on to something. That dry air is already half way across the FL panhandle.


Ecmwf is out to lunch. Gfs, nogaps and cmc look more credible at this point in time
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Well, look at that. Somebody's getting some nice weather. Not me, but... good morning!


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1632. bjdsrq
Quoting JupiterFL:


He lives in Alaska so I'm pretty sure that didn't influence the forecast.


...wasn't referring to him. Was referring to the masses of FL school kids on this blog.
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I was just staring at former Matthew again... almost hypnotically... it almost looked like it's trying to get wrapped back around itself again... especially on its western side.
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1630. marmark
Quoting aquak9:


errr...he's 17, he's already CLP'd his way thru a coupla years of college, and probably one of the best teachers we have here.
Agree!
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1629. bjdsrq
Quoting 34chip:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
...WITH THE ECMWF (WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE) NOW
ALLOWING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE KEYS
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.


... and if you look at the water vapor loop, you see the ECMWF may be on to something. That dry air is already half way across the FL panhandle.
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1628. dmdhdms
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Quoting alcomat:
thats easy to answer,according to all the florida members,anything that forms,either in the atlantic,gulf,or carribean,will be headed to florida. they are on a wishcasting roll,and believing in models that are 244 hours out..lol


You know something? I see what your saying, but I don't see it. I haven't seen any wischasting going on, what I have seen are people like you that just come out of no where and say 'wischaster you say Florida hit' well sorry to break it to you.. this is a blog, it is not to be taken seriously.
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Quoting bjdsrq:


What do you expect? Most are kids and want a day off from school.


He lives in Alaska so I'm pretty sure that didn't influence the forecast.
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Good morning.

No storms in the Atlantic, how bizarre after the latest run. Well, for the time being, anyway. Maybe tomorrow, the next issue will arise.

Any reports on what Matthew has inflicted?
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1624. 34chip
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
428 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010
AN EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH
FLORIDA REGION...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FEED
NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE A MUCH DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS FILTERS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST. THIS SCENARIO PRESENTS A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE KEYS...AS OUR WEATHER REGIME WOULD
VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED SETS UP. THE BULK OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH THE
ECMWF (WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE) NOW
ALLOWING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE KEYS
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EVENTUALLY EJECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS OF 50 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN REDUCE
POPS A BIT TO 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
STILL REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 80.
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Looks like the local guys here in S. FL are calling for stormy, windy weather for the end of the week. They seem to think this will be a tropical depression or less unless things really change... but bring some heavy rain thru Palm Beach Co. Thur.-Sat.
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Good morning, aquak9 and all else. It seems so strange to read 'no tropical activity in the Gulf or Atlantic'. We didn't make it down into the 50's, but are a respectable 63. Beautiful outside!
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Quoting bjdsrq:


That link shows a ~14 y/o kid and a blog updated Saturday. Take it for what it's worth.


Your an idiot kid.

Right to the ignore.
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1619. aquak9
Quoting bjdsrq:


That link shows a ~14 y/o kid and a blog updated Saturday. Take it for what it's worth.


errr...he's 17, he's already CLP'd his way thru a coupla years of college, and probably one of the best teachers we have here.
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1618. alcomat
thats easy to answer,according to all the florida members,anything that forms,either in the atlantic,gulf,or carribean,will be headed to florida. they are on a wishcasting roll,and believing in models that are 244 hours out..lol
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1617. aquak9
Good Gaea on a Bike. What a mess.

good morning my beloved friends who are lurking. I might get rain?

Hey Ike, I got 0.45 last night!
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1616. bjdsrq
Quoting RotorYacht:
Follow Levi32's Blog and he will break it all down for you. He should have a new update today sometime so keep checking in later. As for those systems being hurricane(s) I would put a pretty good bet that one will roll through South Florida before the end of this season. As Levi32 mentions in his blog over and over that the earth has to get rid of the heat in the Carib. so standby for a storm to do just that.

Link



That link shows a ~14 y/o kid and a blog updated Saturday. Take it for what it's worth.
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1615. alcomat
remember the comment from saturday,'its getting ripped apart,and its not going into the boc' that was from a few well known bloggers on here.looks like I might be right, matthew is really firing convection,and is almost in the boc! let the crow fly!!!
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Put the money on the table: do both of there areas... remnant Matthew and this new thing for two storms or do they get together?
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Matt still seems mostly together if he gets into the Gulf could he form? what track would our future invest take?
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Ex=Julia still sneaking up on Bermuda.
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1611. alcomat
Quoting cirrocumulus:
05:01

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They seemed confused there still is a invest number associated with ex-matt. This shows Matt coming back across the Yucatan to where the lowest pressure in the nw Caribbean presently is. I think it's two separate systems I guess we will find out later today.
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1609. dmaddox
maybe the GFS was right all along:
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Buoy 42056 bp 29.66 and fallen fast. ESE wind 24kt.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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