Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening Kman!

Yeah, mean sea-level pressure across the western Caribbean are well below average which should facilitate the development of a surface low with our disturbance.







we sould have 96L soon
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Quoting PSUweathermet:


weve only had 13 so right now its a perfect forecast :p


We'll go up to 14-16 by the end of the week though ;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey!

What happened to your prediction of 13 named storms at best in June?

What happened to "I'm right, your wrong"

Do some explaining :|


She said the season was a bust today in chat.
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So What's next....??? All this mess of clouds and energy all over W Carib??? For the moment, I will consider J. Masters prediction....

A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey!

What happened to your prediction of 13 named storms at best in June?

What happened to "I'm right, your wrong"

Do some explaining :|


weve only had 13 so right now its a perfect forecast :p
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Surface pressure here in Grand Cayman is steady at 1006.9 mbs which is well below normal.

Winds are calm but skies are overcast. Looks like something brewing to our West.
Good evening Kman!

Yeah, mean sea-level pressure across the western Caribbean are well below average which should facilitate the development of a surface low with our disturbance.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting seflagamma:


No, unless there are Hurricane Warnings for your area, schools and business will not close.


Au contrare, they shut down schools and work for Tropical Storms.
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Quoting Dakster:
Hey Patrap... We still have EARTHEN Levees all over Florida, including Lake Okeechobee..

Lake Okeechobee's Levee's are not in the greatest shape either. Little worried if the GFS solutions holds true.



Never trust the Corps of Engineers Work.

Trust US on this one.

You'll be swimming Home maybe?
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I hate to do this but with all these comments I must enlighten everybody as to what will happen with this caribbean cloudiness. The gfs is high on cocaine and those solutions of 3 storms can be completely ruled out. There will be nothing forming here with the exception of a possible tropical depression but more likely so south florida will get some rain. Nothing to get worked up about.
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Good evening

Surface pressure here in Grand Cayman is steady at 1006.9 mbs which is well below normal.

Winds are calm but skies are overcast. Looks like something brewing to our West.
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You can't have children going to school in conditions that Emergency Responders won't respond. I think it's 40 MPH Sustained winds. My uncle had a heart attack in 2004, I don't remember which storm. But my father (77 at the time) had to go pick him up off the floor and take him to the hospital. Luckily they lived within a mile or so and the hospital is 2 miles up the road.

If conditions are expected to reach that point, everything SHOULD shut down!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop if you can read what i post then dont quote it


I can read it but who can understand it?
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Quoting weatherman12345:
sorry just hoping...
do they shut down schools for a tropical storm?


No, unless there are Hurricane Warnings for your area, schools and business will not close.
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Hey Patrap... We still have EARTHEN Levees all over Florida, including Lake Okeechobee..

Lake Okeechobee's Levee's are not in the greatest shape either. Little worried if the GFS solutions holds true.
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788. 7544
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Just a friendly reminder. No offense. lol


haha got too excited np
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Quoting 7544:


oh oh space bar not working jajajaj


Just a friendly reminder. No offense. lol
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Quoting Patrap:


Threat of levee failure prompts evacuations along Wisconsin River

Authorities in Portage, Wisconsin, worked Sunday to evacuate residents as a levee along the Wisconsin River approached imminent failure after heavy rainfall soaked the Midwest last week.

An alert sent out by Columbia County Emergency Management on Sunday urged residents near Blackhawk Park to evacuate immediately ahead of the flooding, which is expected to wash out a main road leading to about 150 residences.

"Emergency vehicles including police, fire and EMS will not be able to reach residents," the statement said.





Go Figya?..,Levee's..outside of NOLA.

Who'd thunk it?
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Quoting weatherman12345:
no seriously.. it really hard to flood a city in south florida... its all sand


I know. I lived in Oakland Park, near Ft. Lauderdale, for over 40 years and now live near Bradenton. I was laughing cuz overall it is hard, however, there are areas such as Sweetwater that go under fairly easily
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780. 7544
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


First of all, I'd suggest spellcheck.


oh oh space bar not working jajajaj
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Threat of levee failure prompts evacuations along Wisconsin River

Authorities in Portage, Wisconsin, worked Sunday to evacuate residents as a levee along the Wisconsin River approached imminent failure after heavy rainfall soaked the Midwest last week.

An alert sent out by Columbia County Emergency Management on Sunday urged residents near Blackhawk Park to evacuate immediately ahead of the flooding, which is expected to wash out a main road leading to about 150 residences.

"Emergency vehicles including police, fire and EMS will not be able to reach residents," the statement said.
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Quoting fldude99:


Can you be a little more SPECIFIC?



nop if you can read what i post then dont quote it
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miamis got wade lebron and bol alittle flood they'll move on
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Quoting weatherman12345:
its really hard to flood a city in south florida.


Depends where you are... Sweetwater floods regularly.
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Quoting Dakster:


Patrap I enjoyed your blog... Got to listen to some music I haven't heard in awhile. I noticed it was all weather related...


I do a lil blogging here and there..

Check the listings on the right here..or is it the Left?

Been down for a spell but it'll pick up in earnest dis week fo sho.

Thanx.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


If the GFS has its way , The Next time we see this Webcam Pic. Miami will be underwater


LOL
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Link
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, nothing like fronts we used to get in Oklahoma.


I lived in Northwest Arkansas... Aint that the truth...
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my take on the back-to-back-to-back cyclones... probably not 3 seperate ones but more than likely 1 that lingers around for a very long time
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Quoting Patrap:
Ooooh rah,,bac atcha.



Patrap I enjoyed your blog... Got to listen to some music I haven't heard in awhile. I noticed it was all weather related...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sunset here in Miami...gettin' ready for the Fins game.



Nice shot.
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Quoting fldude99:


I imagine so..but how does 2010 even come close to comparing to 2004? Only he can answer that
does not come close but we may have alot of systems up to 4 affecting the US specifically South Florida, in 2004 we had a ridiculous amount of storms out there and alot made landfall, the only difference is one place may get hammered
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Sunset here in Miami...gettin' ready for the Fins game.



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
760. 7544
in total but what the gfs is showing for all three stroms not the cat 3 tho lol

winds likevs katrina and wilma when they hit so fla

flodding like irene

power outages who know s how ;long

anyone wnats to add the list
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Quoting Dakster:


We have strong afternoon thunderstorms as well. However, the broad scope of a Tropical Storm with potentially hours of sustained winds over 40MPH cancels classes for safety reasons. A "brief" severe storm is not a big deal and rarely causes large scale power outages, street flooding, etc...

It would be negligent to NOT cancel certain activities... And you do have snow days, right?


In my area of Louisiana, we don't have any weather days scheduled, not for flooding or for hurricanes, nor for the three snowfalls we had last year. After Rita, they added twenty-five minutes of school each day for six months.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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