Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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857. marmark
11:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:
No School nor work shut down for tropical storms.. I live here and I know this for sure for Broward County.
umm...we always close schools for tropical storms here in Martin County. One reason is they don't want the buses running in that kind of wind.It's a safety issue. I work for the school district here (past 20 years) and the schools have closed for every tropical storm. Being in the cone is the deciding factor.
Member Since: February 1, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 243
855. weathermanwannabe
11:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Too much pending drama for me with the two extrmes between NHC and Accuweather....Time to chill the beers in the freezer and prep for the game tonight......See Yall Tommorow..... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
854. PSLFLCaneVet
11:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


Tell me about it. As they say, I'm a great winner LOL


I can play for a Slurpy or a Benny, it's all the same.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
853. kmanislander
11:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
I'm out for dinner. Will check in a little later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
852. Orcasystems
11:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
851. Hurricanes101
11:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
uh oh they kept it at 10%

let the ripping of the NHC begin lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7824
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
What a difference from accuweather!
Member Since: February 1, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 243
Quoting 7544:


haha got too excited np


Ahh...don't worry about stupid stuff like that. Nobody is perfect.
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Forecast or prediction is not set in stone but what they THINK is a good possibility.


Forecast has much the same meaning as predict; it is used today particularly of the weather and other phenomena that cannot easily be accurately predicted:
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
From Accuweather.com:

Satellite imagery over the Caribbean shows that a tropical depression is likely developing and new tropical depression may form during the next 24-48 hours. This system, which will be named Nicole is likely to intensify into a hurricane as it heads north toward Cuba, and will in all likelihood impact Florida late in the week.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Doesn't matter how much, does it? Just as long as you retain the bragging rights! lol


Tell me about it. As they say, I'm a great winner LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting Patrap:
The wind will blow,,some rain will fall?
Whats the big Deal?

I mean Fla is still attached after 04,and 05?

Pfffth



You're right, and New Orleans will come back again, maybe. No big deal.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Sure did. Played a 3 man skin game and won CI$48.00 !!. Felt like a million dollars LMAO.


Doesn't matter how much, does it? Just as long as you retain the bragging rights! lol
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
838. srada
Good Evening Everyone! From the local NWS Wilmington, NC

this will not be a good week for NC at ALL..

AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXCELLENT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A
POTENT UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER JET ENHANCES
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER THE AREA WHILE STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH STRONG WIND
FIELDS A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY THINK THE
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AS SPC INDICATES IN
THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK THERE COULD BE ALSO BE A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WESTERN
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE THE
COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY AND
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS TOMORROW. STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN UPPER TROF NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ARE LACKING...SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. GFS IS
QUITE BULLISH WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS.
HOWEVER...IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT...SO STAY TUNED. WED-FRI TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
BY DAY AND WELL ABOVE BY NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
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1st time in a long time no name storms
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You should be able to retire now.


Half a tank of gas LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting hurricanelover236:
Doesnt anyone agree with me that this wave in caribbean is much ado about nothing?


What wave ?. There is a large area of low pressure covering the NW Caribbean left over from the transit of Mathew. It remains to be seen whether anything develops from it but the models unanimously take a tropical system, or several, North from this general area. Wait and watch.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think we will see that tonight though. Not enough organization or deep convection for Invest status IMO.
Still at 10%.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
TWO is out still 10% i am out to see the game see you all tomorrow
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Quoting kmanislander:


Sure did. Played a 3 man skin game and won CI$48.00 !!. Felt like a million dollars LMAO.
You should be able to retire now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hey kman. Did you get to play golf today ? Lots of rain in East End.


Sure did. Played a 3 man skin game and won CI$48.00 !!. Felt like a million dollars LMAO.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Evening.......All that energy in the Western Caribbean has to go somewhere....Could be a storm or could just be a large wave like mass that dumps massive amounts of rain on someone...Just have to wait to see what happens. Plenty or rain today in North Florida and lots more forecast as the front comes through between today and tommorow.....We actually need the rain cause it's been hot and dry for the last week or so ....BTW, Go Fins.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
Doesnt anyone agree with me that this wave in caribbean is much ado about nothing?
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No School nor work shut down for tropical storms.. I live here and I know this for sure for Broward County.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Doing great. Awaiting the Fins.

Unfortunately whatever goes your way goes mine so I'm keeping a close eye on it as well. What the GFS is showing is a very real possibility with the monsoonal-type setup we're seeing.


There is a huge gyre covering th entire NW Caribbean right now. Pressures are very low but it will take time to spin up.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting kmanislander:


Don't quote the trolls. Flag and move on
Hey kman. Did you get to play golf today ? Lots of rain in East End.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting seflagamma:
This blog thread has had me laughing out loud..

and I am sitting here in Ft Lauderdale area and I have people here who would make a lot of money in Overtime if we get a storm...

they are police, FPL, big generators, electrical, etc...


and they are like "bring it on" but we have been hearing that for 2 months. and nothing so far.






I guess we will wait and watch, I do not want to take this lightly because it could be terrible but my trust in the models this year is not good.



and my daughter with 2 little preschool and a hubby that works for FPL (who worked non stop after Wilma for 3 weeks we hardly saw him)..she and the kids would move in with us because we have a generator and the supplies.

We are prepared, but don't want to hear the nonsense about all this stuff happening so far out...or going to happen Wednesday and nothing is out there right now.


hear..hear..i second that
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Quoting caneswatch:


Au contrare, they shut down schools and work for Tropical Storms.


Last time palm beach county dealt with this, i think they established a rule where winds of at least 45 mph have to be expected to start cancellations
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Quoting kmanislander:


How ya doing ??. Big game tonight eh ?? LOL

We're watching this area with some interest. The GFS has several storms meandering around here for the next several days. Maybe we'll get one but who knows. Frankly, I am concerned about October and November. Still too much heat sitting in the Caribbean.
Doing great. Awaiting the Fins.

Unfortunately whatever goes your way goes mine so I'm keeping a close eye on it as well. What the GFS is showing is a very real possibility with the monsoonal-type setup we're seeing.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We'll go up to 14-16 by the end of the week though ;)


i don't think 16, 14 probably, I say 16 to end the season!
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
you need HELP


Don't quote the trolls. Flag and move on
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening Kman!

Yeah, mean sea-level pressure across the western Caribbean are well below average which should facilitate the development of a surface low with our disturbance.




*stares* ... that cloud formation stretching southwest from Cuba looks like the Oogie Boogie Man taking a chomp outta Honduras.
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This blog thread has had me laughing out loud..

and I am sitting here in Ft Lauderdale area and I have people here who would make a lot of money in Overtime if we get a storm...

they are police, FPL, big generators, electrical, etc...


and they are like "bring it on" but we have been hearing that for 2 months. and nothing so far.






I guess we will wait and watch, I do not want to take this lightly because it could be terrible but my trust in the models this year is not good.



and my daughter with 2 little preschool and a hubby that works for FPL (who worked non stop after Wilma for 3 weeks we hardly saw him)..she and the kids would move in with us because we have a generator and the supplies.

We are prepared, but don't want to hear the nonsense about all this stuff happening so far out...or going to happen Wednesday and nothing is out there right now.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Of course...


The 12z and 18z GFS differ big time. On the 12z, it had two tropical Storms and then a major hurricane coming into South Florida next week. On the 18z, it has 3 Tropical storms and then a major hurricane hitting South Florida in 2 weeks. Personally, the 12z runs are more reliable IMO.
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NO 96L TONIGHT
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This is what J. Masters posted on 2007 about that "Sleeping Giant"

Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2007
A persistent low pressure system extending from the Central American nations of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Belize northeastward over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas continues to dump heavy rain over much of the region. Heavy rains of at least five inches in northern Haiti triggered floods that killed at least 47 people Friday and left over 20,000 homeless. The flooding was worst in Cabaret, Haiti, near the north coast. No new rains fell Saturday, and further flooding is not expected. Heavy rain will continue to affect central and western Cuba today.

Connected to this deadly rain-making low pressure system is the large "sleeping giant" low pressure system that has been spinning over the Yucatan region the past week. This low continues to spin in the extreme southwest corner of the Western Caribbean, where Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras meet. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated, poorly formed circulation, which will make development into a tropical depression today unlikely. None of the models develop the system. It is forecast to move northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. At that point, a trough of low pressure may be able to pull it towards a landfall near the Texas/Mexico border by Thursday. The trough may not be strong enough to turn the storm northwards, though, and it may come ashore in Mainland Mexico near Veracruz.

Even if the sleeping giant does not intensify into a tropical depression, this low could be a dangerous storm for Central America, bringing heavy rains of up to five inches to Belize, Guatemala, northwest Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan over the the next three days. These heavy rains may also affect the Pacific coast regions of El Salvador, Mexico, and Guatemala, as the counter-clockwise flow of air around the low sucks in air from the Pacific Ocean.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting Tazmanian:





we sould have 96L soon


I don't think we will see that tonight though. Not enough organization or deep convection for Invest status IMO.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting caneswatch:


She said the season was a bust today in chat.


Of course...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening Kman!

Yeah, mean sea-level pressure across the western Caribbean are well below average which should facilitate the development of a surface low with our disturbance.




How ya doing ??. Big game tonight eh ?? LOL

We're watching this area with some interest. The GFS has several storms meandering around here for the next several days. Maybe we'll get one but who knows. Frankly, I am concerned about October and November. Still too much heat sitting in the Caribbean.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening Kman!

Yeah, mean sea-level pressure across the western Caribbean are well below average which should facilitate the development of a surface low with our disturbance.







we sould have 96L soon
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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