Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I think it was just a misunderstanding. I know you both and you're both good people. Let me be the mediator, or tell me to get lost! lol
.
I saw a cloud heading west.


That cloud has been moving west for like a week now lol.
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CTeddy
Great explanation. I appreciate you taking the time to explain. I guess these types of systems aren't exactly typical. I have been lurking here for years but don't post much. Its nice when we can get some good info.
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Quoting aquak9:



ooo- I like THIS post. Hi LiesToTell. :)

I'm in Jacksonville....will I get ANY rain from ANYTHING tropical between now and Christmas??


Hmmm...

Depends,
Let us see your list to Santa. ;)
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Quoting mac3821:
"Shear"

Thanks for the answer. I understand that SSTs aren't everything but if not that then I was wondering what it is.


np even with very hot SSTs sometines Shear or Dry air can overide. That being said i think there is plenty of moisture in the Car. but Shear can really disrupt developement
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I'll be much quieter tonight, no beer for me (bad Chuck).

Are the models still on board with the ghost storm?


A herd of them now, it seems.
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
joe bastardi is an embarrassment, i would say to his profession, but his profession is tv-ratings guy. a couple rainly days with a few palm fronds down is NOT a "hit."



ooo- I like THIS post. Hi LiesToTell. :)

I'm in Jacksonville....will I get ANY rain from ANYTHING tropical between now and Christmas??
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There are diurnal maximums and minimums every day regardless of a tropical cyclone being present in the tropical Atlantic.


I think his point is that it really only makes a noticeable difference when it comes to organized, developing systems.
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Quoting seflagamma:


You are so correct, it must come thru SW Fla before we get it in SE Fla... but you guys did not slow down Wilma much as it plowed thru our areas..




The everglades have long been unreliable for slowing anything down, some times even worse...just look at Andrew's track history for perfect evidence on that.
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I'll be much quieter tonight, no beer for me (bad Chuck).

Are the models still on board with the ghost storm?
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Quoting mac3821:


Does anyone have any input on the above?


Good question.
Its because this type of development, monsoonal in nature, is slow and the storm may not have taken full time to really develop once it gets picked up by the trough and heads NE. Some of the models, GFS and CMC for example, make this a stronger system.

Its just a wait and see. The last Caribbean/Gulf system we had, Karl, none of the global models predicted it to become anymore than a weak TS in the BOC when it became a Category 3 hurricane.
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"Shear"

Thanks for the answer. I understand that SSTs aren't everything but if not that then I was wondering what it is.
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Quoting doorman79:


Great idea, but how would you put shear on a medal? lol


I'll figure it out!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The power of suggestion. Be back in a minute.


LOL!!
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.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
can not have a dmax without a system and there is no system at this time


Ah, good point.
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.
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Quoting breald:


This is not a big deal to me. No need for us to get into a pissing match.


The power of suggestion. Be back in a minute.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Give this man a medal.


Great idea, but how would you put shear on a medal? lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


???
can not have a dmax without a system and there is no system at this time
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


TD by Friday


That would make the GFS wrong, as it shows FL getting a weak TS by Wednesday.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Give this man a medal.


ill pin a shear medal on my chest lmao
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Quoting bwi:
Good evening. I've been watching the S winds at the buoy due south of the Cayman Islands and the pressure steadily falling at the buoy in the far NW Caribbean.

Regardless of whether some tropical storms form, it just seems like that's eventually going to set up a stream of tropical moisture up the East Coast of the U.S. I can remember a couple times in recent years when similar setups caused surprise flooding in our area.

Lived in Florida my whole life, Grew up in Volusia, they closed for TS's, now just north of you in Indian River, also close for TS's, all for the same reason, the Buses are a safety concern in any moderate stregnth storm. (I've seen them stay open for one storm in Volisua, it had just formed and came ashore barely a storm.)
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
Any guesses as to how strong this system gets? I say anywhere from a depression to a Cat 1. Also, I think Bahamas is way too far east for landfall. As Joe Bastardi says: "Florida is goig to take a hit."
Your guess is as good as mine on the strength. And u do realize the Bahamas is only 50 miles east of Florida, right? It doesn't take much "east" of FL to be in the Bahamas.... in fact just about anything that hits SE FL the way this system seems likely to is going to give the NW Bahamas - Bimini, Grand Bahama and Abaco in particular - the dirty side... whatever that turns out to be.
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924. xcool
jets going win .back tropical weather,
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Quoting will40:



Shear


Give this man a medal.
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Quoting mac3821:


Does anyone have any input on the above?



Shear
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Quoting mac3821:


Does anyone have any input on the above?


Warm ocean temperatures aren't the be all end all. It's really that simple.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is no dmax but we do get a temp inversion so to speak as the air temperture drops to below water temps then convection will begin to dev if the convection can defeat the daytime heating then it should maintain itself during the day tomorrow and build even more after sunset monday with a system by tuseday

Thanks for the explanation Keeper
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Quoting mac3821:
I don't really understand why the models are predicting the storms that form in the Western Carribean to be weak. All we have heard about all season is how the Carribean is ideal for strong storms due to record SSTs. Is it just the speed that they are moving and the proximity to the CONUS? Any input is appreciated!


Does anyone have any input on the above?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is no dmax but we do get a temp inversion so to speak as the air temperture drops to below water temps then convection will begin to dev if the convection can defeat the daytime heating then it should maintain itself during the day tomorrow and build even more after sunset monday with a system by tuseday


???
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Wind shear over the guessed low pressure center has fallen to 5-10 knots, while over Cuba remains at 30 knots.

Marginal conditions, slow development very likely.
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I was about to say that Michelle was the worst of the 2001 season until I remembered this.... I guess worst is where u are sitting at the time...
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At least Grothar isn’t posting any of his scary 240 hours model forecasts.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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